Another wild week.
Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key
BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.
_____________________________
Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ukraine war has allowed GGR to operate towards the ‘reset’ without much news coverage.
________________________________
Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting. Doom cries about a new ‘variant’ poking their head up.
_____________________________
Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world.
Mortgage rates hit 5% this week, the highest level since February 2011, continuing a stunning ascent since the start of 2022. The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped more than a quarter-point in a week from 4.72% last week, according to Freddie Mac. In the last five weeks alone, the rate has climbed 1.24 percentage points and is 1.89 points higher than at the end of last year.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s removal of Title 42 measures guarantees an uncontrollable flood of illegals starting next month.
At the news conference Wednesday, Abbott and Nuevo León Gov. Samuel Alejandro García Sepúlveda signed the memorandum that calls for the two states to “work cooperatively” to stem the flow of migrants into Texas, reduce cartel activity and restore border crossings to a faster pace.
Mexican drug cartels have conducted more than 9,000 drone flights into U.S. airspace in the last year to surveil American law enforcement and security operations in the southern border region, a senior Homeland Security official told Judicial Watch this week. The drones are observing federal, state, county, and city agencies near the Mexican border, including the U.S. Border Patrol, Texas Department of Public Safety, Texas National Guard, county sheriffs and local police. The Border Patrol, which operates under Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has captured about a dozen of the drones, and accessed the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles’ (UAVs) guidance and memory systems to gain intelligence information, according to a high-level official at the agency.
OBSERVATION - This is closing in on complete cartel control of portions of the border - made worse as biden prepares to overwhelm the border patrol with the removal of Title 42 restrictions.
To be confirmed but reportedly from a source in the CBP, the Border Patrol will terminate the CDC Title 42 COVID-19 expulsions for certain categories of migrants effective immediately. Single adult migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Colombia are no longer subject to speedy expulsions along some parts of the southern border.
OBSERVATION - Not sure on the validity or even if they can terminate it early. However, given biden proclivity to ignore law, he may well just order the BP to act as if the Title 42 restrictions have been lifted.
______________________________
Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.
Biden looked lost again Thursday after finishing a speech on the nation’s ongoing supply chain crisis when he turned around and stuck his hand out as if to shake hands - but there was no one else on stage.
The blunder from 79-year-old Biden comes days after he looked disoriented during an event that saw former President Barack Obama visit the White House for the first time since leaving office.
Immediately after ending the speech in Greensboro, North Carolina. with the signoff ‘God bless you all,’ footage from the event shows Biden turning to his right and seemingly saying something to the empty space behind him before miming a handshake - suggesting the president did not know he was alone at the podium.
In the footage, the aging Democrat proceeds to frantically look around the stage with a bewildered look on his face, before beginning to wander aimlessly around the crowded auditorium.
___________________________
CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - BLM/Antifa maintaining lowered presence outside of base areas (Portland, Seattle etc). There are continued events like first aid and riot training. Rampant crime continues with it migrating into affluent areas.
17 LA gangs are aggressively targeting upper class LA suburbs for robbery.
_________________________________
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*
Musk’s purchase of Twitter stocks and now offering to by it for about 40 billion has caused leftist heads to explode all week.
__________________________________
POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
Years of presidential debates tainted by left-wing biases have finally prompted the Republican National Committee to take action. On Thursday, the RNC voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), the organization that hosts the general election presidential debates every four years.
OBSERVATION - SMH, why did it take so long for the GOP to figure this out.
_____________________________________
Domestic Terror - BLUE
NYC subway shooter, Frank James, was ordered to be held without bail yesterday.
_____________________________________
Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
US soldiers of the 1st battalion of 109 artillery regiment w/ 155 mm M109A6 Paladin howitzers and other fighting equipment arrived in Lithuania.
_________________________________
Cyber Warfare - YELLOW
Continued warnings of Russian cyber attacks against US power and financial networks.
_________________________________
North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates the NK is preparing for a likely military parade in Pyongyang to mark the “Day of the Sun” on April 15
Still close watch on either a nuclear test or ICBM launch to celebrate the day as well.
___________________________________
Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.
____________________________________
Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING -
WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widespread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
*********
Russia says it has hit a plant making anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles outside the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. It came hours after it admitted that the Moskva warship had sunk following an explosion on Wednesday.
Ukraine says it hit the Russian cruiser in the Black Sea with missiles - Russia has said a fire on board caused the sinking
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said that should Sweden and Finland join NATO then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in an exclave in the heart of Europe
OBSERVATION - Continuation of nuclear threats against these countries, essentially justifying their concerns and pushing them even closer to NATO.
Personnel Issues -
- Russia has reportedly lost its fortieth high-ranking military officer since the start of the war in Ukraine. Lieutenant Colonel Denis Mezhuev was killed on the frontline, local reports said. Mezhuev commanded the Sevastopol Red Banner regiment under the 1st guards motor rifle division, which moved from Kyiv to the battle-scarred east in recent days. Ukraine says Russia has now lost a total of seven generals and 33 colonels
- Russia sustained more KIA in the first 2-3 days in Ukraine than it has in 6 years in Syria.
Equipment Issues -
The loss of the “Moskva” in perspective. It goes beyond the impact to the prestige of Russia.
Russia admitted yesterday that the Moskva sank while being towed to Crimea. Its loss to Ukrainan Neptune missiles is not the end of the war, but it does seriously impact the Russian war effort.
1. The loss of the Moskva will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct cruise missile strikes. The Moskva’s main role was likely conducting precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in Ukrainian rear areas, including logistics centers and airfields. It had the capability to launch as many as 16 Kalibr missiles at one time. These Russian strikes have been effective but limited in number compared to airstrikes and ground-launched cruise missiles throughout the invasion, and the loss of the Moskva is unlikely to be a decisive blow.
2. Moskva was vital to the air defense grid in the South & Black Sea. She carried 64 S-300’s, and was basically a massive area denial asset for Ukrainian aviation in the south. “Moskva” had a top radar system crucial for anti-air support for the fleet. This protected the western side of Crimea from Ukrainan air incursions (drone, fighters and helicopters). Other vessels could fill some of the air defense roles of the “Moskva” but not as effectively. The withdrawal of other Russian vessels to roughly 80 nautical miles from the Ukraine coast is a tacit admission that Ukraine did hit the “Moskva” with a missile. This will create an even bigger gap in the air defenses that Ukraine could exploit.
3. The chance of a Russian amphibious assault as part of a move to capture/isolate Odesa or even link up with Russian forces in Moldovan Transnistria, has become close to nil. The naval situation combined with the tactical ground combat would make such an operation a death trap.
BTW, the “Moskva” was involved in the infamous “Snake Island” incident in the early days of the Russian invasion.
One last equipment/force issue. There are and estimated 65 - 80 Russian BTG’s in all of Ukraine right now focused on south and east per a US defense official. Recall that Russia had amassed about 120 BTG’s prior to invasion. If this estimate is accurate, that is a loss of 33 - 54% of raw BTG combat power. NOTE - these numbers may well be disproportionally distributed. However, using another metric, a BTG contains an average of 10 tanks per BTG - approximately 1200 tanks at the start of the war. Over 500 tanks have been confirmed to have been destroyed since the start of hostilities - loss of 41% of combat power.
Economic Hits -
- Moody’s said Russia may be in default because it tried to service its dollar bonds in rubles, which would be one of the starkest consequences to date of Moscow’s exclusion from the Western financial system since President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
____________________________________
Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv and Ukraine has entered its second month.
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru April 24th show warm with rain/showers. Conditions likely to keep off road operations unfavorable.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Pentagon disclosed today that a group of Ukrainian troops in the US for military education when Russia invaded received training on not only armed, unmanned Switchblade aircraft but also coastal defense surface drones US approved for transfer yesterday. Significant action in the Khariv sector, see below.
Go to the following link to see the current depiction of the ground situation in Ukraine. Pay attention to the absence of any RED in northern Ukraine and think back to what was there just a couple weeks ago. The change in the tactical situation is stark.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
Russia struck Kyiv with at least 3 cruse missiles overnight, targeting a factory area in the outskirts. Russia has threatened to increase attacks if Ukraine attacks Russian territory.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant to report
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant to report.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
This is probably the most active and fluid area of fighting. Russian and Ukraine forces still are clashing in the vicinity of the town of Izyum (Izium). Russians recently have made some minor gains south of Izium. This is building to be the main axis of attack by Russia forces, creating the northern pincer to cut off Donbas region from the rest of Ukraine.
However Ukrainian counter-attacks are threatening to cut-off the Russian salient. To the east of Izyum, the Russians have been pushed back approximately 30 km, almost to the strategic town of Borova. Borova was occupied by Russian forces a couple of days ago. See the map link above.
The salient also permits Ukrainian artillery to strike all the Russian supply routes to Izyum. With the rearguard under Ukrainian fire control, the Russian vanguard in this battlefront sector is cut off.
NOTE - Though consisting of smaller towns, not major cities encountered in the north (other than Khariv), the roads are proportionally smaller and narrow as well. Increasing spring rains are denying a lot of off road movements, making Russian forces essentially road bound once again, a flaw that condemned the attacks in the north. Russia is losing control of the road network as well. Ukrainian Special Forces reportedly destroyed a bridge near Izyum while a Russian military convoy was crossing it on April 13. All the major roads to Izyum are controlled by Ukraine except one: the crossing of the Oskil’s’ke reservoir at Borova.
So between Ukraine SOF and artillery interdiction, Russian farces are facing a similar if not worse situation the faced earlier in the north.
Russian forces continued to shell civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and its outskirts and seek to fix Ukrainian forces in place.
Attempts to advance on the southern most segment of the front, south of Izium were repulsed.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
Conditions in Mariupol continue to be desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. It is unclear how much longer the Ukrainian defenders can hold out. I know i’ve said this almost daily for the past several weeks and yet they hold on and continue to inflict strong damage to Russian forces assaulting the city.
Separatist/Russian forces made little to no gains in the sector to join forces trying to come down out of the north from Izyum-Slovyansk
Crimea Front -
Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast have slowed as Russian forces continued efforts to improve their defensive positions in Kherson. Russia launched a heavy artillery / missile attack on Melitopol overnight.
Russian amphibious operations against the Odessa region are off the table for now.
Western Ukraine -
No significant actions.
Russian interdictions -
Belgorod Russia is again unsettled: local residents heard the sounds of explosions, the air defense system is in action. From posted videos it appears that two ADA missiles were fired, but at no targets and were self destructed. A large fire in Belgorod. Local authorities urge calm and say everything is under control. Not clear if the fire was due to Ukrainian action or other.
OBSERVATION - Belgorod is one of the main bases being used to refit and rearm Russian forces pulled out of northern Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Russia may be accelerating the reinforcement of units in the Donbas region as this amorphous May 9th deadline closes in. Already it appears that Russia is making the same mistakes in overextending it forces and leaving resupply lines highly vulnerable it did in the north. The longer Russia delays the kickoff of its offensive, the more it finds itself behind the power curve as Ukraine is operating in a faster and more efficient manner to Russian threats.
Deteriorating weather conditions will degrade Russian fix wing close air support and they will have to risk attack helicopters for any CAS operations in eastern Ukraine.
More and more arms and munitions, including more modern systems, continue to pour into Ukraine and Russia appears powerless to stem the tide. Russia may counter by resuming attacks on Kyiv.
Ukrainan pressure on the western flank of the Crimea front will continue to freeze Russian forces in place and out of the Donbas fight. Ukrainan positioning threatens supply lines coming out of Crimea proper should Russia pull out too many troops and Ukraine gains a break through. The loss of the Moskva is a severe psychological blow to Russia and boost to Ukraine. It does make the western coast of Crimea more vulnerable and could grant Ukraine more maneuver room to push Russian forces from Kherson and further threaten the Crimean front.
Ukraine still holds out in Mariupol, and their dogged determination is amazing, how much longer they can hold out is uncertain.
____________________________________
Belarus - RED *updated 01-02-28*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.
Russia’s TASS agency is reporting that the Belarusians have shot down a drone coming from Lithuanian airspace. However smugglers use multi copters to smuggle cigs in to Lithuania.
________________________________________
Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.
Smolensk officials and local activists have brought heavy machinery to the Polish military cemetery in Katyn and threatened to destroy it in response to the “demolition of Soviet monuments in Poland”. They’ve also started a petition to resolve the “Katyn issue” once and for all.
Poland has been removing monuments, but not cemeteries, to the Red Army, which attacked it on 17th September 1939, in support of invading Nazi Germany.
Katyn is where the Soviets executed tens of thousands of Polish officers and intellectuals in 1939, back when Moscow and the Nazis were on the same side, and then lied about it for 50 years.
________________________________________
Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine. Russian threats against these countries are less vocal/open. Russia may be very wary of hitting any of these nations (particularly Poland) conventionally due to Article 5 and the sorry state of its military forces in and around Ukraine.
Today North Macedonia declared additional six, in total eleven in a period of one month, Russian diplomats as persona non grata for breaching the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations
____________________________________
Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Several terror attacks by West Bank Palestinians has caused tensions to skyrocket over the past week.
Israeli warplanes launched air raids on the positions of pro-Assad forces near the city of Qatana and the Scientific Research Center in Jamraya in Damascus countryside. This is the second strike in Syria by Israel this week.
Israeli forces stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque after a number of people bearing Hamas and PA flags began firing fireworks and throwing stones forced Israeli police to intervene in the situation. The Israeli police spokesperson in Jerusalem says police waited until after the prayer was over and worshippers scattered to respond. Over 100 injured.
OBSERVATION - This is a very serious incident. Al-Aqsa is a tripwire. Be on watch for rocket attacks coming form Gaza into S Israel. Thing could escalate very quickly and have already.
Egyptian security officials reportedly have been conducting mediation between Israel and Hamas over the last several hours after this morning in an attempt to stop escalation.
____________________________________
Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*
Iran’s foreign minister said Wednesday that a preliminary deal had been reached with a foreign bank over frozen funds belonging to the Islamic Republic.
Esmail Ghaani, who heads Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, said Thursday the Islamic Republic will confront Israel “wherever it feels necessary,” according to a report by the semi-official Nour News agency.
OBSERVATION - This is in the context of last month’s attack on Kurdish Iraq and the alleged ‘mossad’ base there.
_________________________________
Morning all. I’ve noted that this post has grown in size for when I first started. Almost to a ponderous level, and in part I apologize. However, two mitigating factors. First I’ve progressed into tapping more informational sources outside the MSN and general internet fodder - which often is a couple days behind the power curve if credible at all. Second, there is a lot more stuff happing since wuhan hit the fan in late 2019. We will never return to the old normal, we need to cast normalcy bias aside and be alert to this turbulent ‘new normal’.
________________________________
Economy -
Biden will nominate Michael Barr to be vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve after the failed nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin. In a letter to Biden obtained by the New Yorker, Raskin blamed “relentless attacks by special interests,” who opposed her view that climate change could pose a threat to economic stability, for derailing her nomination.
OBSERVATION - Republicans are correctly placing more scrutiny on biden’s Fed nominees. In a twist, yes, climate change does pose a threat to economic stability - by crashing our petrochemical industry and leaving the country with a weaken power grid dependent on unreliable source, just for a couple items.
The Biden administration announced Friday it would resume leasing sales for oil and gas drilling on federal land, while also sharply reducing the acreage available for leases, and charging higher royalties on the oil and gas produced.
The Interior Department said roughly 144,000 acres would soon be available through oil/gas lease sales, an apparent 80% reduction from the land that had been under previous evaluation for leasing.
OBSERVATION - Take a big note, 80% reduction in availability. This is nothing but a PR headline to lull sheeple into thinking the administration if doing something.
A fertilizer supply shock is imminent for US farmers as CF Industries Holdings, Inc. warned Thursday that rail shipments of crop nutrients would be reduced to top agricultural states, which couldn’t come at the worst time as the Northern Hemisphere spring planting season is underway.
The world’s largest fertilizer company said Union Pacific had hit it with railroad-mandated shipping reductions that would impact nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and urea ammonium nitrate shipments to Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and California. Union Pacific told CF Industries without advance notice to reduce the volume of private cars on its railroad immediately. This means CF Industries had to decrease shipments by a whopping 20% to stay compliant. Sounds like the UP is backed up on shipments. As a result, they are restricting “private car” shipments (i.e. not UP equipment) by almost 20%.
OBSERVATION - This is hitting farming at the worst possible moment. Fertilizer is already in high demand and planting is underway. Some would say this is part of a govt conspiracy to further attack food production. IDK if that is true, but timing is everything.
______________________________
Invasion of Illegals -
The Biden administration’s open border policies have let in more than 1.5 million illegal immigrants, enough to double the size of Dallas or San Diego, according to a former immigration judge.
In an analysis of data from the Department of Homeland Security, the new report said that during his presidency so far, President Joe Biden has knowingly released 756,000 migrants encountered at the border, another 146,000 illegal youths to guardians inside the United States, and an estimated 620,000 “got-aways.”
According to a court document filed Friday in the federal lawsuit between Texas and Missouri against the administration of President Joe Biden, Customs and Border Protection agents encountered more than 221,000 illegal migrants along the southern border in March.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced Thursday that two more Mexican governors signed agreements to boost border security measures in exchange for a halt to increased vehicle inspections at ports of entry. The latest agreements bring the number to three Mexican states so far that have come forward and signed on to Abbott’s demands that Texas not bear the burden of illegal migration alone.
Meantime, more busses from Texas arrived in DC.
The White House has quietly resumed its after-dark charter flights of underage migrants to a suburban airport north of New York City — after a Post expose led to their suspension last year.
The Post watched as a group of migrant teens got off an Avelo Airlines plane that arrived at the Westchester County Airport near White Plains at 9:25 p.m. Thursday. The group then boarded three waiting buses that drove off about 50 minutes later.
______________________________
Biden / Harris watch -
CNN poll show biden’s approval numbers now below those of Trump at the same time of their terms. NOTE- Trump’s polls were skewed to make him look bad, and biden’s to look good. Apparently CNN’s pollsters couldn’t find enough special sauce to keep biden above trump.
A new Quinnipiac University national poll shows that only 33% of Americans approve of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president, while 54% disapprove.
OBSERVATION - Those polls are historically been skewed in favor of democrats, it is an ill omen for midterms.
___________________________
CW2/Domestic violence -
Far-left protesters in Grand Rapids call for the end of the police & the need for a revolution. They’re angry about the police shooting of Patrick Lyoya, a suspect who wrestled with a cop & then tried to take his taser.
OBSERVATION - I’m seeing more rumblings of this sort as BLM/Antifa try to use ‘police violence’ to stir up emotions and generate unrest leading to riots - in the form of 2019. More violence directed towards conservatives on college campuses too when a non-narrative speaker shows up.
___________________________________
North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
__________________________________
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now entering the second month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.
Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
NOTE - I erroneously accepted information that the Moskva was equipped with Kalibr surface-to-surface missiles. The Moskva was in fact equipped to fire Bazalt anti-ship missiles. This is not to say that those anti-ship missiles couldn’t have been adapted for land targeting. Its been documented that Russia adapted another anti-ship system, the K-300P Bastion-P coastal defense missile system launching strikes against ground targets in Ukraine. No data if Russia adapted the Bazalt system to a similar dual role.
Russian fighter jets from bases in Belarus have approached Polish air space multiple times each day since the invasion . “The current situation brings more tension - more risk - and it’s definitely more serious for the whole NATO community.”
RUMINT -
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian Federation is preparing to formally declare war on Ukraine in response to the sinking of the Russian Black Sea’s Flag-Ship “Moskva”, this would allow the Russian Government to begin mass conscription as well as economic war actions.
OBSERVATION - This would be an interesting development, however such a mass conscription would not affect the battle for months AND there would have to be combat ready equipment for these conscript to use.
Mykhailo Samus, deputy director of the Center for Army Studies, Conversion and Disarmament, warned: “Onboard the Moskva could be nuclear warheads — two units,” igniting a interwebs firestorm.
US intelligence does not believe the ship was carrying nuclear arms, CNN reported Friday, citing two senior US officials. Those officials said that western intelligence has been monitoring the battlefield for unusual movements of nuclear weapons and has not seen any.
Still, the fear of the ship’s weaponry comes weeks after defiant Russian President Vladimir Putin placed his country’s nuclear weapons on high alert following the start of the invasion. The Moskva came out of maintenance shortly before the war and US ‘monitoring’ of activity may have missed the installation. Additionally, two Russian jets violated Swedish air space CARRYING nuclear weapons just a month ago.
However, solid evidence is still lacking.
Logistics -
- Latest confirmed loss of Russian equipment losses are over 700 tanks and literally hundreds of other armored vehicles during the first 50 days of combat. 700 tanks is more than a 50% loss assuming 120 BTGs at start of war.
- 40 older BM-21 MLRS units observed on train headed to Ukraine from eastern Russia. Noted that these were a much shorter range version than currently in use.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- MORE ON THE MOSKVA -
- Commander of the Moskva, Captain 1st rank Anton Kuprin, was killed during the fire on the cruiser. He is the latest of a long list of senior Russian officers killed so far in the conflict.
- One aspect is what happened to the approximately 500 other sailers on the ship? Yesterday, the relatives of the doomed crew of Russia’s Black Sea flagship Moskva defied Russian censors to hold an unofficial memorial today, as Ukraine claimed that all 510 servicemen onboard died - including the ship’s captain. The presence of a naval general officer and Orthodox priest indicates the seriousness of the memorial.
- No Russian statement or photos regarding survivors. The only info on survivors come from other sources. US intelligence claimed to have ‘observed’ Russian sailors evacuating the ship in lifeboats as the vessel burned. Initial reports that a Turkish vessel rescued 54 sailors. The silence suggests that the loss of life was high, likely in the hundreds.
- In other naval losses, yesterday it was made known that the commander of the “Saratov” amphibious assault ship of the Russia’n Black Sea Fleet, Captain 2nd Rank Vladimir Khromchenkov, died in the hospital. Ship was hit by Tochka-U missile strike in port of Berdyansk that set off a ammunition being carried by the vessel. Another Senior Russian officer added to the long list.
- Latest estimates of 20,000 Russian soldiers having been killed in the conflict (and that’s likely conservative) with an approximate estimate of 50,000-60,000 wounded. When compared to the estimated 180K - 200K soldiers Russia started out with shows the tremendous hit to the army.
Economic Impacts -
- Sanctions prohibiting procurement of key materials for Russian factories.
____________________________________
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Repeated, almost non-stop aerial alerts across Ukraine over night. Explosions reported in Kyiv, Poltava, Oleksandria, Dnipro, Lviv, some as result of air defence. Russia continues to launch missiles, including Kalibr from ships of Black Sea
Troll level 10 - The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reminds the Russian navy that the Black Sea straits “ are closed for entry only. The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out.”
See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Kyiv front -
1 killed, several wounded as result of Russian missile strikes in Kyiv this morning. Russia’s defense ministry says the missile strikes targeted a military plant in the capital Kyiv
Kyiv’s police chief says 900 civilians have been found dead in towns around the capital after Russian troops left, most of them fatally shot, police said Friday, an indication that many people were “simply executed.”
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.
Eastern (Khariv) front -
Kharkiv 1 killed, 18 wounded as result of heavy shelling this morning.
Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine but did not make any territorial advances
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and Barvinkove on April 15. Several Ukrainian sources (including civilian administrators in Kharkiv and Izyum) stated Russian forces continued to deploy to the Izyum axis,
South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -
Situation in Maripol is clouded by lack of solid information, but is appears the noose is tightening for defenders.
Russia used Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers for the first time in this war to strike Ukrainian positions at the Azovstal plant Mariupol city. These dropping the BIG conventional bombs. Seems Russia is in a hurry to close up the Maripol operation.
Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.
Crimea Front -
Damage in Mykolaiv as result of Russian army shelling today. Russian ministry of Defense reports missile strikes at plants in Mykolaiv
Russian forces conducted limited attacks on Ukrainian positions west of Kherson and continued to shell Mykolayiv but did not make any advances.
Western Ukraine -
3 missile strikes today in Kviv region.
OUTLOOK -
Increased missile and bombing campaign against Kyiv, western Ukraine and Dombas regions. Russia pushing to put new BTGs together for the Donbas offensive but likely not able to kick it off yet.
Maripol is set to fall within days now. Controlled territory and ammo/personnel supples are shrinking for defenders.
The race is on for Ukraine to integrate these into their forces before Russian is ready to kickoff their offensive.
Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive operations in the Donbas region, feeding reinforcements into the fight as they become available rather than gathering reinforcements and replacements for a more coordinated and coherent offensive. This is evidence that Russia hasn’t learned its lesson from up north and are throwing units into to battle piecemeal. I’m watching the push south out of Izyum as where Russia will launch its Donbas offensive in earnest. However, it is a high risk axis that exposes its supply to Ukrainan interdiction.
Russian Black Sea Fleet will be altering it operations out of respect/fear of Ukraine’s limited but effective Neptune Anti ship systems.
___________________________________
Europe / NATO General -
Portuguese Army deploying a Combined Armored Infantry element to Romania, augmented by AD and SOF.
____________________________________
Pakistan -
Different sources confirm the Pakistani jet fighters carried out late night simultaneous strikes in the Afghanistan north-eastern Kunar and south-eastern Khost provinces, respectively, in “Chogam” and “Passa mela” remote areas sharing a close border with Pakistan. heavy artillery shelling is still ongoing. Looks like Pakistani military is really going at it against TTP militant bases in Afghanistan.
___________________________________