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Globalism / Great Reset -

Placing this here for good reason - see end. David Beasley, the head of the United Nations World Food Programme, said Ukraine grows enough food to feed 400 million people around the planet — until Russia invaded the country, that is. Beasley further said “(There) is $430 trillion worth of wealth around the world today. There’s no reason a single child should be dying from hunger, much less going to bed hungry.”
OBSERVATION - Control food, control people. GGR has to confiscate this ‘wealth’ right? (sarc)
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Economy -

Economists are noting that the dollar is at risk losing its status as the reserve currency. After peaking at 73% of all currency transactions in 2001, the dollar has been in constant decline. The one thing that is preventing a collapse in the dollar is that no other currency is set to capture the world’s reserve currency title. Sanction war with Russia has caused other nations to utilize other currencies instead of the dollar to get around sanctions. China has been making moves to harm the dollar as well. It is in active talks with Saudi Arabia to price some of its oil purchases in yuan.

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Invasion of Illegals -

I have to post this again, just because of the magnitude of it. Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is preparing for a massive influx of up to 500,000 illegal immigrants monthly once the administration lifts the pandemic-era asylum limits, which is expected to take place on May 23.
DHS officials told reporters on Tuesday that the department is anticipating a worst-case scenario of 12,000 to 18,000 illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border every day, totaling up to 540,000 monthly.
OBSERVATION - Half a million per month - that’s 6 million for a year. All with hungry mouths, plethora of diseases and too much invested in spreading crime and drug trafficking.

Gov. Greg Abbott late Friday signed his fourth memorandum of understanding in three days with another Mexican governor as part of his commitment to secure Texas’ shared border with Mexico. Abbott met Friday with Tamaulipas Gov. Francisco García Cabeza de Vaca in Weslaco, Texas. They signed a memorandum of understanding designed to prevent illegal immigration from Mexico to Texas and improve the flow of commercial traffic across the international bridge.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

On Saturday night, Antifa and other far-left militants in Portland gathered for a vigil held for Patrick Lyoya, a black man who was fatally shot by a Grand Rapids officer earlier this month, and caused damage across the northern part of the city to small businesses as well as a Portland Police Bureau precinct. In posts made to Twitter, far-left activists called for “revenge” attacks and “solidarity action” against the police. On April 4, Lyoya was fatally shot in the head by a Grand Rapids, Michigan, police officer after he refused to comply with the cop’s commands, continually struggled against his arrest, and kept placing his hand on the officer’s taser gun.

OBSERVATION - this looks like an attempt to rally the leftists into another round of violence. Granted, it doesn’t take much for the BLM/Antifa elements in Portland to get up and burn something. Again - the disturbing trend to call for potentially lethal response.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Pressure building to have Kalifornia senator Feinstein forced from office due to all her marbles not there.

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Domestic Terror -

Pennsylvania authorities are asking the public for information regarding a device containing nuclear material used in construction.
Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection said the device, a portable nuclear gauge, is used in construction to “evaluate the properties of building and road-bed materials,” a press release read. But if the device is “damaged,” people in the vicinity could be exposed to harmful radiation.

OBSERVATION - The radioactive material will not create a nuclear bomb, but could be used for a small ‘dirty’ bomb. However, no evidence of a potential diversion for terror use yet.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas starting - Ukraine still stands now in the second month of the war.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia has hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Dombas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia is close to completing redeployment of forces and is expected this new offensive soon.

Withdrawing Russian forces have left abundant evidence of mass murder of civilians, rape of women and children and widewpread looting.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Images out yesterday confirm the missile strike on the “Moskov”. In the images, the ship is listing to port and the damage and the active fire seems to originate in the amidships of the ship where the chimney is located and two of the six AK-630s are located. Two potential openings just above the water line are where some people suggest it is where the two missiles hit it.

Russian Baltic Fleet appears to be ramping up activities. Both Zubr-class LCACs are being loaded with naval infantry vehicles and the Northern Fleet large landing ship Ivan Gren has also entered the Baltic Sea. With most of the landing assets in Black Sea, these assets are likely for intimidating Sweden and Finland.
OBSERVATION - I can’t believe Russia / Putin would be foolish to start another conflict, but then if he is off his rocker, anything is possible. He has been making serious threats against them.

RUMINT -
Some analysts are assessing that the big attack of Russia in Donbas might not happen because the Kremlin beginning to really think and is afraid of possible failure at Donbas. One aspect is the weather because of heavy rain and overflowing of rivers vehicles cannot pass. Leaves are appearing and hinder the attack. Each day Ukraine gets more and more weapons and Russian forces have suffered huge losses and low morale.
OBSERVATION - Hard to judge if this assessment is very valid. It does agree with the big concerns over weather/terrain and the morale of the troops, but projecting that on Kremlin thinking may be projecting to much because the decision maker is Putin and he’s painted himself into a corner, needing some sort of military victory to call an end to fighting.

Economic Impacts -
- Moscow Mayor says the withdrawal of foreign companies from the capital has put 200,000 jobs at risk

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Mild temperatures are forecast thru April 24th with rain continuing in the forecast . Conditions maintained for muddy off road conditions over much of Ukraine .

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
To be better detailed under the Eastern Front (Khariv) discussion, it appears that Ukraine may have taken the Russian initiative for their Donbas offensive away from them by launching a preemptive offensive of their own.

Little to no word out of the Azovstal factory.

Heavy missile and air strikes overnight.

See this link for up dated map of current ground situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQWA7HkXsAA2NZk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kyiv front -
More missile attacks against industrial areas surrounding the city.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Nothing significant reported.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy salient) -
Nothing significant reported.

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Situation in this area has now become highly fluid and dynamic.

Kharkiv and the surrounding areas are faced more heavy shelling overnight.

It is appearing that the Ukranians have launched a preemptive offensive to hit Russian forces before they can get the pieces in place for their Donbas offensive. The Ukrainians are pushing on two axes to encircle the Russian forces in Izyum. One axis going east from Kharkiv cutting the supply routes for Russian forces in Izyum. (I have noted this Russian weakness in previous posts) And another push in a northeastern direction on the eastern side of Izyum salient. Overstretched supply lines getting hammered again and threat of Ukrainian encirclement of Izyum. Just like in the north. Ukraine is preemptively hitting Russia before they can kick off their big offensive.

Izyum is important in that it is a transport hub which makes it easier for the Russians in the NE to link up to forces in the Mariupol direction. This would enable the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbas.

Ukrainian military in counter-offensive in Kharkiv region. Liberated Bazalievka, Lebyazhe, partially Kutuzivka
Ukrainian army conducting offensive operation at Kutuzivka, Bairak, and east to Mala Rohan.

The link to the map depicts this action
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQktt2LXEAg4Z9x?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

East of Izyum - Ukrainian army counter-attacking between Kreminna, Rubizhne and Sviatohirsk, Russian troops were pushed several kilometres to North-East.

Map of battles for the east side of Izyum

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQjg3ZHX0AQRPvX?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

As with the fight in the north, I expect the situation to be very fluid over the near term.

South Eastern (Dombas Separatist Region) Front -

Explosions were heard in Dnipro city, reportedly hit somewhere at outskirts Missile strikes in Pavlohrad and Synelnykove districts of Dnipropetrovsk region as well.

Attacks northward from the separatist region were unsuccessful.

Crimea Front -
Situation remained largely static.
Heavy explosion reported in Kherson airport area

Russian forces are seeking to force the remaining defenders of the Azovstal factory to capitulate through overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing operations but remaining Ukrainian defenders appear intent on staging a final stand. It is being reported that the RuAF is dropping FAB-3000, FAB-5000 and FAB-9000J (3000kg, 5000kg And 9000kg respectively) bombs on the facility. Would coencide with footage of TU-22 heavy bombers airborne above the city earlier this morning. Little other word coming out of the area overnight.

Western Ukraine -
Russian missile strikes in L’viv targeted railway infrastructure, no casualties, there will be delays in schedule according to the head of Ukrainian railways, Oleksander Kamyshin
Maksym Kozytsky, the head of Lviv Oblast Military Administration, and Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi reported that missiles struck military facilities and a car tire service point, killing at least six people and wounding eight.

OUTLOOK -
Desperate last stand in Mariupol continues to tie up Russian forces it needs to kick off the southern pincer of the Donbas offensive. Uncertain how long the Ukrainan defenders can hold out, but they’ve lasted about 6 weeks so far. By the time the battle for the city is over, there will only be rubble of the city left and a very pyrrhic ‘victory’ for Russia.

More shocking is the developing Ukrainan offensive in the Khariv front. This is a clear case where the best defense is a good offense, and it appears Ukraine is offending. It has caught the Russians with, once again, a long and exposed logistic trail. It appears that Ukraine is further exploiting Russian low morale in addition to the supply issues of units redeploying to the area from northern Ukraine. Russian forces are increasingly attempting to leverage conscripts and proxy units in Izyum, indicating continuing challenges generating the forces necessary to encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. Russian units in the Izyum salient are in tough shape being chewed up badly and lack of reinforcement is not helping the matter.

If the Ukranians are able to collapse the Izyum salient, chances for a Russian victory in capturing the Donbas region start dropping to nil. Time is running out for favorable weather/soil conditions as well as the rumored May 9th deadline. At least a dozen BTGs are reportedly in the Izyum salient, a number Russian cant afford to lose if they want the Donbas.
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Israel -

Arab-Israeli Raam party ‘suspended’ its participation in the coalition government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
OBSERVATION - This will likely cause parliamentary elections as this small party is what gave Bennett his position. Note, hasn’t pulled their standing, so Bennett’s govt is hanging by a thread.

Situation in Israel and specifically Old Jerusalem and the Temple mount continue to be tense as Ramadan inspired moslem riots and terror attacks continue.

Islamic State on Sunday urged its supporters in Israel to launch additional terror attacks, the first such call since two deadly terror attacks were carried out last month by Arab Israelis thought to have been inspired by the jihadist group.

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Iraq -

The military operation was launched by Turkey against the Zap, Metîna and Avaşîn regions of the Federated Kurdistan Region continues on April 14th and has continued. TAF bombed Zap, Metîna and Avaşîn regions with warplanes and howitzers.
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Syria -

Sources report Russia halved salaries of the 5th Corps (created & funded by Moscow) in Syria. Now it’s 100$/month. Allegedly a consequence of Ukraine’s invasion.
OBSERVATION - This will trigger some losses and perhaps re affiliation of those forces to someone willing to pay better, like Iran.

After nearly week of Russian air activity over Syria, things have become very quiet on the Russian side again.
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Turkey -

See Iraq.
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Black Swans -

Active sunspot complex AR2993-94, which unleashed an X1-flare on April 17th, may be just the beginning. NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring another potentially large active region right behind it.