Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Back at it, feeling a little better
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Wuhan virus -

Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine has dropped significantly, and states are scrambling to use up their stockpiles of vaccines before they expire. Plus, more of today’s COVID news.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

A group of Black Lives Matter and Antifa rioters were convicted on federal charges after attempting to frame the Proud Boys for a series of vandalism and arson attacks the far-left extremists carried out on Atlanta police vehicles and United States Postal Service property during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Truman CSG has been moved into the Aegean Sea, closer to the Ukraine theater. Probably supporting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
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China -

China continues to straddle the fence over the Ukraine war, playing both ends against the middle. However, I think they may be set back both on the poor performance of the Russian military and the vast economic counter that hit.

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North Korea -

NK popped off another rocket yesterday, same general flight characteristics as the previous one.

Some observers are raising the anticipation level of a much bigger event by NK, even the possibility of an another nuclear test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 10 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 95% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine,

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Videos out yesterday show a number of trains loaded armor vehicles at Khabarovsk. Load out identified BMP-2, MTLV and ZSU23/4 vehicles Khabarovskis near the Pacific and near the border with China. This would be the Far East Military District. It will take a couple weeks to get to the Ukraine theatre. No word if there will be troops accompanying the equipment.’
OBSERVATION - This is a sign that the war is NOT going well for Putin. Observers have already noted that the maintenance issues on the equipment currently in combat is very poor and a cause of a lot of losses in addition to the mud, ambushes and running out of gas. And these were their active duty units. This equipment, coming out of storage at least could start up, and get loaded, however the quality of maintenance is highly questionable. That said, suggests a level of desperation.

RUMINT - Reports of Kazakhstan mobilizing and loading up armor on to trains. This could be a misinterpretation of the report above. Kazakhstan has already rejected a call by Russia to join the war.

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PM Naftali Bennett has been in talks in the Kremlin with Russian Pres Vladimir Putin for about two and a half hours.

President Vladimir Putin likened Western sanctions on Russia to a “declaration of war” and threatened Ukraine with loss of its statehood if its leaders continued to resist his military invasion.
OBSERVATION - Some consider this just tough talk for propaganda purposes. OTOH Putin’s trend has been to double and triple down. Sanctions are going to be hurting very very soon, the clock is ticking.

Lavrov: “Our delegation expects Ukrainians to respond to our demands to disarm Ukraine and recognize Crimea as Russian territory”

The US military has established channels to communicate directly with the Russian military as a way to deconflict tactical movements around Ukraine

Economic hits continue to increase. -

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia’s economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.

More and more companies are cutting ties to Russian firms and shutting down businesses.

The Russian stock market was closed all week and the value of a ruble remains below one US cent. Moody’s Investor Service today dropped its credit rating of Russian debt to junk status. economist Steve Hanke, who specializes in measuring real inflation rates, estimated Russia’s annual inflation rate has already hit 61 percent, and this was before the war. Expected to get much worse.

Blinken says ‘no strategic interest’ in Russia energy sanctions, resists calls for oil import ban
Secretary of State Antony Blinken downplayed the impact that energy sanctions on Russia would have, arguing any such sanctions would hurt America and its allies more than they would Moscow. This is flying in the face of increasing congressional calls for cutting off imports.

Inspire of new laws and crackdowns - protests against the war continue through out Russia.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

While absorbing brutal and indiscriminate artillery barrages and air strikes, Ukraine defenses remain stable in the north and east. Most likely lead by airborne forces, Russia continue to make gains in the south, expanding its successes connecting with separatist forces near Mariupo and capturing bridges and crossing the Dniper at Kherson.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have announced that they have killed Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk Andrey Sukhovetskiy. While sick yesterday, Ukraine announced that the got another division and regimental commander.

It has been a bad 48 hours for the Russian AF as losses have increased significantly. Russian Air Force losses over Ukraine in the past 48 hours:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft
- 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 3 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

The main reason for the losses are the abundance of MANPAD systems combined with the switch to using ‘dummy’ bombs, which require lower flight paths to drop accurately. Some argument as to why Russia ceased its use of guided bombs, some thinking they simply ran out. I think that since the bombing has switched to targeting residential apartments and areas there is no need for ‘precision’. My understanding is that Russians pilots are poorly practiced in this kind of bombing - that under counter fire and PGMs are dropped from a much higher (and safer) altitude. One of the pilots was captured and was identified as having experience in Syria based on a photo of pilot with Assad.

Expect to see more Mi-24/35 attack helicopter losses. Russia seems to be putting more of them as cover for the POL convoys and only in ones and twos. Low, slow and very vulnerable.

Not a good day for the ground pounders either, relatively confirmed report that in the Kiev region, near Severinovka, the Russian occupation forces came into battle with ... the Russian occupation forces. As a result, thanks to “friendly fire”, 9 tanks and 4 armored personnel carriers were destroyed.

Russia agreed to a cease fire to allow non combatants to leave Mariupol and eastern town of Volnovakha. Evacuation have just been canceled for Mariupol by local authorities saying Russia not observing ceasefire. In Irpin, Russian shelling damaged an evacuation train and the tracks.

Russian forces in Kherson and Meliopol have faced protests by citizens that have force them to pull back from some of their positions in the city.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy.
Current assessment is that the the lead tip of this column are completely out of fuel and food by this time. With road congestion and the death mud (see earlier post) if one goes off the pavement, further movement is doubtful. Additionally along the Irpin River, Ukraine opened up the gates to a dam, flooding a vast area down stream, further limited any potential movements. Russian forces having to swing farther to the west in an attempt to encircle Kyiv from the west and south. Outlying towns being reduced to rubble.
The town of Irpin has come under increased pressure by Russian forces pushing to Kyiv and has been hit hard by the indiscriminate bombing by Russia forces. In Irpin, Russian shelling damaged an evacuation train and the tracks after an agreement to allow non-combatants to leave.

Limited offensive actions out of Kyiv have opened up a lot of area to the south and southwest, permitting resupply of ATGM and MANPADS was well as other supplies.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Situation largely unchanged from yesterday. Russians continue to attack Chernihiv with heavy artillery and bombing. The push to the southeast along a Kozelets’-Bobrovytsia-Makiivka axis - very possibly in an attempt to connect with similar thin pushes from the north eastern front forces pushing from Konotop and Sumy, appears to have its lead elements cut off and are currently ‘surrounded’ with no logistics chain.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Armor push from Konotop and Sumy show little progress and likely stalled due to logistics. May be seeing an effort to join a push form the Northern front - see above. Konotop may or may not be surrounded but has been under intensive artillery/rocket attacks on residential areas. Khariv and Sumy also suffering under massive bombing and artillery attacks, striking residential neighborhoods.

Eastern Front -
Separatist/Russian forces continue to pressure Mariupol and have continued attacking in spite of a cease fire. Lines are pretty static along the old LOC.

Crimea Front -
By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. The nuclear plant at Enerhodar is under Russian control. Forces have now pushed to Mykolaiv to the northwest and some elements have gone as far as Voznesensk (site of another nuclear plant). The Voznesensk attack was supported intially by an air assault attack. This axis of advance seems more focused at trying to reach northward to Kyiv rather than sealing off Odessa. Additional pushes eastward to expand the land bridge with the separatist controlled Dombass region.
No move to encircle Odessa which makes me think the emphasis now is a long march northward to try to cut off the eastern half of the nation and pressure the defense of Kyiv. No naval movements to suggest an immanent amphibious operation either.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Some have estimated that Russia had planned on no more than 10 days to complete the invasion and subdue Ukraine. We are at that 10 day mark. Russia has called on ‘friends’ for help and gotten none, not even Belarus (apart from basing Russian aircraft and missile launches). Most analysts see increasingly brutal attacks on civilians versus military targets. As they do so, it is galvanizing international support for Ukraine and further isolating Russia economically and politically.

Russia has a large army, on the books, but if the quality is the same as its active forces, their insertion into the combat will not do much to sway the fight. Their training and equipment status is most likely far below the level of the active duty units already in the fight.

I expect more of a push northward by the Crimean forces (who IMHO were the best trained and equipped ) towards Voznesensk and the nuclear power plant just beyond. Pre war positioning and heavy initial losses do not suggest that they can sustain a northward assault without being seriously over extended and subject to having the POL chain interdicted as the other fronts. This road bound assault does not support a general encirclement of Odessa, thought by many to the next target of Russian southern operations.

Russian airpower will continue to be relatively impotent in swaying the fight - except to bomb residential areas. Urkraine air power, much of which is thought to be relatively intact and in the mostly untouched western Ukraine, may continue to assert itself. The combination of TB2 drones taking out Russian ADA capabilities will increase the chances Ukraine AF will strike as Russian troops have far fewer MANPAD systems than the Ukrainians apparent have and know how to use.

A “No Fly” zone is still out of the picture barring a Russian atrocity such as using MOAB/FOAB or even tactical nukes. Half of Ukraine is mostly uncontested and resupply and reinforcements can come in from that region to the war zones in the east. If Russian AF attempts to contest those resupply operations, it may raise the risk of combat with the substantial CAP flying over Poland and Baltics.

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Belarus -

With all the rumors, no Belarus combat forces are known to be in Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -

French Defense Minister: The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will take up a position in the Mediterranean for reconnaissance missions over the Baltic countries

Five Russian ships including frigates are turning elsewhere for replenishment after being denied entry into Limassol of Republic of Cyprus, with the island’s foreign ministry scrapping a previous agreement citing the ongoing war in Ukraine.

UNSC meeting today on Russia’s attack on Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Sweden condemns the Russian military aggression against Ukraine & demands that all parties fully comply with their obligations under int’l humanitarian law to spare the civilian population

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No report yesterday - OBE. Sorry.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS

US convoy -
Circling around the DC beltway

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Wuhan virus -

Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine has dropped significantly, and states are scrambling to use up their stockpiles of vaccines before they expire. Plus, more of today’s COVID news.

HHS revealed that it purchased advertising from major news networks including ABC, CBS, and NBC, as well as cable TV news stations Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC, legacy media publications including the New York Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post, digital media companies like BuzzFeed News and Newsmax, and hundreds of local newspapers and TV stations. These outlets were collectively responsible for publishing countless articles and video segments regarding the vaccine that were nearly uniformly positive about the vaccine in terms of both its efficacy and safety.
The safety and efficiency information has since been shown to be false advertising and misinformation.
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Economy -

Oil prices surged to a 13-year high on Sunday as U.S. officials signaled an openness to a ban on Russian oil imports amid Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate Crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose 9.5% to $126.64 a barrel as of 7:00 PM on Sunday evening. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, shot up 12% to $130.98 a barrel. WTI hit an all-time high of $147.27 and Brent hit $147.50 in July 2008.
“We consider $125 per barrel, our near-term forecast for Brent crude oil, as a soft cap for prices, although prices could rise even higher should disruptions worsen or continue for a longer period,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. A prolonged war could see Brent moving above the $150 per barrel mark, he said. Analysts at Bank of America said if most of Russia’s oil exports were cut off, there could be a 5 million barrel per day (bpd) or larger shortfall, pushing prices as high as $200.

The average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline jumped 9 cents at domestic service stations Friday to $3.84, according to AAA, after increasing by 7 cents Thursday. A week ago, drivers paid 26 cents less on average per gallon.
NOTE - this increase doesn’t include overnight jump in crude prices, which will soon hit us. BTW in my corner of the Redoubt, prices jumped about 35 cent/gallon last week.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its report on worldwide food prices for February, and prices hit a record high last month. The February FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) reached a new high of 140.7 points, which reflects an increase of 3.9% over January and a whopping 20.7% over this time last year.

More food concerns as the war in Ukraine continues on. Both Russia and Ukraine are big exporters of wheat and corn. War and sanctions looking to cut significantly into both crops. Ukraine supplies the EU with just under 60% of its corn and nearly half of a key component in the grains needed to feed livestock.
The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
USDA is reporting that a whopping 71 percent of all winter wheat in the United States has been affected by drought

OBSERVATION - Prices for goods and services are going to skyrocket as fuel price hikes, lack of fertilizer, and poor crop yields hit the market. Critical shortages becoming more apparent - for example infant formula shortages equaling empty shelves (I am particularly sensitive about this area, expecting new grand boby next month - had foresight to build .up about 9 months worth of formula in the pantry).

Global famine pressures are increasing.
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Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

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Domestic Terror -

At approximately 9 p.m. on Sunday night, a vehicle drove through a security checkpoint at Joint Base Andrews. One person is in custody, while Security Forces are still searching for the second person.
According to an official statement on JBA’s Facebook, the intruders failed to adhere to commands of security personnel at the Main Gate. Security Forces then deployed the barriers and stopped the vehicle. Both people fled the vehicle, one was apprehended, and the other remains at large. The base confirms that the person in custody had a weapon, but no shots were fired.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Truman CSG has been moved into the Aegean Sea, closer to the Ukraine theater. Probably supporting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
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China -

China is raising its defense spending in 2022 by 7.1% to $229 billion, up from a 6.8% increase the year before.
Saturday’s announcement marks a continuation of the robust spending that has given China an increasingly powerful military that is challenging the U.S. armed forces’ dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
OBSERVATION - This will further strain China’s economy which is already on the edge of a recession.

The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 12 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT - Sources are saying that Russia is trying to hire mercenaries out of Syria with urban fighting experience to fight in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - I seriously doubt that Putin can recruit enough of these fighters to make any difference. Syrians are wrapped up in their own conflict and the question would be why would they want to go elsewhere to fight. Plus they’d need thousand to make any real difference and Russian equipment and logistical support (which is seriously lacking in the current situation).

Observers questioning on how deep are Putin’s pockets to continue the operation. There are reports that Russia has started procuring (commandeering ?) civilian trucks to haul supplies to replace those destroyed by Ukraine forces.

Israel’s Bennett spent 3 hours negating with Putin this weekend. No significant results of the talks have been released.

Russia announced new “humanitarian corridors” Monday to transport Ukrainians trapped under its bombardment — to Russia and its ally Belarus, A spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the move “completely immoral,” saying Russia was trying to “use people’s suffering to create a television picture.”

New round of talks between Russia and Ukraine to start shortly in Belarus - aide to head of Presidential office of Ukraine Podolyak. Just ahead of the meeting, the Kremlin issued a list of demands to be accomplished if Ukraine wants the Russian invasion to be halted immediately. These includes, according to the Kremlin spokesman, the recognition of Crimea as part of sovereign Russian territory, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. This is close to the demands Russia made prior to the invasion and have been rejected by Ukraine.

Russian artillery fire cancelled several evacuation of civilians over the weekend - in violation of agreed ceasefires .

Protests continue across Russia with authorities arresting over 13,000 anti-war protesters as its crackdown on dissidents within the country continues.

Putin has threatened any nation supplying military aid to Ukraine as participants of the conflict.

Economic hits continue to increase. -

Several Russian banks said on Sunday they would soon start issuing cards using the Chinese UnionPay card operator’s system coupled with Russia’s own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard said they were suspending operations in Russia. The move could allow Russians to make some payments overseas, with UnionPay operating in 180 countries and regions.

Russia’s currency sank to a record low Monday as traders struggled to get access to the ruble. The ruble fell to 137 to a dollar, a decline of more than 10% from Friday’s close, as traders say that the ability to buy and sell the Russian currency has become more limited as fewer banks want to settle transactions against it in the offshore market. Russian stock markets continued to be closed as well.

Increased acceptance of the concept of sanctions agains Russian oil production / sales across US and EU. This has caused oil prices to spike (See Economy above).

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s .
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are going to continue to be very soft/ muddy. Waxing crescent moon.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Persistent Russian attacks on residents areas causing civilian causalities to rise sharply, creating new calls for stricter sanctions.

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas of Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have started to stall as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority. Talks between Poland and the US on freeing up Su 25 aircraft to give to Ukraine in exchange for new F16s is stalling.

Ukraine forces still very successful in armor ambushes using the abundant ATGMs and other anti armor munitions. Logistic columns particularly vulnerable to interdiction. Local counterattacks by Ukraine forces have been successful in several locations.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF romance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Refugee conditions are increasing, with about 1.7 million currently in Eastern Europe and Russia hampering any humanitarian passages.

Kyiv front -
Predominantly bombardment of resident areas creating excessive civilian causalities. . Russia tries to continue to push around the western side in an attempt to encircle Kyiv, but are not succeeding and facing heavy losses.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, but attempts to push southward towards Kyiv still stalled.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy are stalled out. Likely out ran their supplies. Assault is road bound. Many maps show the broad area between the road advances under Russian control but no evidence of real control. (This is why I currently favor the ‘Wiki map and the link below) Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating at least two cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol show evidence of having stalled. Ukraine counter attack reportedly regained the airport at Mykolaiv, further slowing the Russian push towards Zaporizhzhia.

Video also emerged which appeared to show Ukrainian defense forces based in Odessa, the country’s largest port, exchanging fire with ships overnight. The Ukrainians are claiming they hit a Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship Vasily Bykov last night with MLRS fire. These Project 22160 ships are brand new and only have a few currently in service.

US intelligence shows no signs of an amphibious assault against the Odessa region any time soon. Russia did a generally unopposed amphibious operation against Mariupol last week. Odessa is a completely different matter. Odessa has had over two weeks to prepare for an amphibious operation and any Russian operation would be heavily contested. Russian navy has at least six large amphibious vessels (the ones that came out the Baltic Sea area over a month ago), however they unload out the bow of the ship - a well placed and timed Ukraine ATGM could block the unload. Russian AF support would face stiff ADA as well. Given the poor coordination of Russian military branches, total lack of a ground push from Crimea to support the assault and the high losses that would be expected may have Russian military leaders hesitant at this stage.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Russia’s ceasefire offer begrudgingly acknowledges its failure in this war. However, its gonna take a lot more Russia losses of men and material before they make any serious concessions - perhaps even replacement of Putin. I expect intensive bombing or civilian targets to continue and intensify. Some commentators calling the lack of Russian progress a ‘pause’ to resupply and the big push is about to come. I don’t agree with that assessment. Russia has committed virtually all of its pre positioned invasion forces into the battle - there are no reserves in place to draw upon in a timely manner to carry forward the attack. Forces are road bound and logistics extremely vulnerable to interdiction.

More Russian armor taken out, more Russian aircraft to be shot down.

Military resupply continues to pour in to Poland to transshipped into Ukraine. I expect more efforts to free up jets in the eastern european forces but not in a timely manner. I have increasing concerns as Putins’ war continues to bog down he may try to strike at resupply convoy as well as refugee convoys. Either would greatly increase the chance of NATO direct action.

I also expect to see this week the effects of sanctions to really start to take a bigger bite out of the Russian economy and pocket books. This in turn will likely cause more and larger protests to erupt. I also wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the week Russian oil being at least partially blocked on global markets.
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Belarus -

People are still trying to figure out what is going on with Belarus involvement in the ground assault in Ukraine. After reports that they were mobilizing forces to join the battle, other RUMINT has been out there citing rebellion, resignations and desertions from the Belarus military.
From the UK Daily Mail - The deputy minister of defence for Belarus has reportedly submitted his resignation and claimed he cannot support the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. Major General Viktor Gulevich, who is also the chief of the general staff, argued that Belarusian military unit personnel refused to take part in hostilities and that the Armed Forces of Belarus could not complete a single battalion group.
Bottom line is, no additional ground forces to assist Russia at this time.
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Poland -

Taken in nearly 1 million refugees and serving a the hub for weapons resupply efforts.
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Middle East / N. Africa General -

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched at least one missile into the busy waters of Red Sea over the weekend, the U.S. Navy said Monday

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Israel -
See Syrian airstrike below

PM Bennett face to face talks with Putin, no real discussion on results.

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Syria -

Israeli airstrike in Damascus area yesterday targeting the standard Hezbollah munitions depot.
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Venezuela -

US talking to Venezuela on oil production.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Globalists trying to twist the current fuel price explosion into a means to force ‘green ‘ switch over. Global economic crisis is also being evaluated to provide a ‘how’ to facilitate the ‘great reset’. They are looking at this as the ‘perfect storm’.

Oil price blowout and its ripple effect on the economies of the world may well kick the legs out from under the global economy. The key thins is the GGR ready to step in to take control of the economy - yet? I suspect that the Ukraine war has to be brought to a conclusion so that the uncontrolled economic shockwaves can be made ‘manageable’ by the GGR.

OBSERVATION - Consider the picture of the emperor (GGR) observing the fight between Vader and Skywalker . . . . .
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Economy -

*** ALERT *** Biden administration to impose a ban on US imports of Russian oil, LNG, and coal in an announcement scheduled for 10:45am

Meanwhile nation average gas prices hits $4.17/gal. Oil traders are speculating on $200/barrel oil by the end of the month. Russia threatening $300/barrel

Ukraine war has disrupted US and global markets already struggling in a post wuhan environments. Gold is now above $2000 and silver above $26 - with no foreseen ceiling. Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange briefly jumped to a record high above $100,000 a metric ton, before paring gains.

US markets now assessed as being in correct territory with the likelihood of a full blown recession looming hard and fast.

During a speech on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that “Forecasters uniformly agree that [economic] growth over the next several decades will be sluggish.” No discussion on Ukrianan war impacts to this forecast.

Last week, Russia’s trade and industry ministry recommended fertilizer producers temporarily halt exports. The proposed suspension is another signal that Western sanctions will impact global food prices. Russia produces more than 50 million tonnes of fertilizers per year, making up 13% of the total global supply.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - The gasoline crisis threatens the economy like no other threat in my lifetime IMHO because it affects ALL other sectors of the economy in one way or another. This makes any rate hikes by the Fed even more dicer as a wrong move could push us past a recession into a full blown depression.
My advice is stock up now on needs you can forecast - both as a price savings, but availability issue. The window is closing and this summer could be brutal. $200/barrel oil will essentially double current gasoline prices - keep that in mind for food, and other products.
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Invasion of Illegals -

What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -

Announcement of oil bans due 1045 today.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Buried under the other news is the threat from food shortages across the country. This is getting worse and with skyrocketing fuel and other prices people are going to be hard pressed and the potential for violent actions increase.

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Domestic Terror -

A Guantanamo Bay detainee dubbed the “20th hijacker of 9/11” has been repatriated by the Biden administration to Saudi Arabia, where the al-Quaeda-trained would-be terrorist will receive treatment at a psychiatric facility.

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North Korea -

(Reuters) – North Korea’s missile launches could be groundwork for a return to intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear bomb tests this year for the first time since 2017, the U.S. Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI) said in its annual Worldwide Threat Assessment released on Monday.
On Tuesday, U.S.-based analysts said commercial satellite imagery shows construction at North Korea’s nuclear testing site for the first time since it was closed in 2018.
International experts have also reported that North Korea’s main nuclear reactor facility at Yongbyon appears to be in full swing, potentially creating additional fuel for nuclear weapons.

OBSERVATIONS - This was coming in spite of the Ukraine war. Its clear to Kim that biden is a do nothing and that they can proceed with their plans. If they resume nuclear tests, Japan may be pushed into a move to go nuclear as well. Online NK tests under 0bama, so far no demands to raise sanctions, etc have been made (or if they have, they’ve been drown out by Ukraine).

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 13 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Economic hits continue to increase. -

More sanctions going on line against the ruling elite of Russia from across the world.
Ruble is worth something in the neighborhood of one-half of a penny.
Top officials in the Congress reached an agreement Monday on legislation that would ban Russian oil imports to the U.S. and end Russia’s permanent normal trade relation status in response to the intensifying war in Ukraine, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
Bloomberg: The odds of a Russian default now around 80%

Protests continue across Russia against the war. Thousand have been arrested.

The U.S. is among 48 nations whose governments have committed “unfriendly actions” against Russia, the Kremlin says. Russian citizens, companies and government bodies that owe money to those countries can pay debts in rubles, the decree says.

Shell says it will immediately stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil following criticism
The Russian deputy PM has warned that Moscow could retaliate against European sanctions by cutting off natural gas to the bloc

Russia warned that oil prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine as peace talks on Monday made little progress.

Russia announced that no later than March 11, all internet traffic must use domestic “domain name systems” (DNS). This would effectively remove Russia from the global internet as only “.ru” connections would be made.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . In recent days Ukraine has seen snowfall across parts of the country. A cold snap, is now forces for midweek. Cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv will experience “biting windchill” of -13C to -20C at times during the next few days.
OBSERVATION - This cold snap may firm up off road movement a little, but they shouldn’t count on it. More likely it will stress Russian troops who are in the open while Ukraine defenders are in warm positions. May result in decreased combat operations on the ground as well as the air.

RUNINT -
Not quite RUMINT but getting accurate loss figures is nearly impossible in this war, but there have been some analysts who’ve painstakingly sorted through the data to come up with some reasonable estimates since the start o the war.
- Russian losses- 902 vehicles, including 143 tanks and 272 A/IFVs
- Ukrainian losses- 272 vehicles, including 46 tanks and 89 A/IFVs

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian attacks on civilian residential areas continued at a high rate, some saying it increased overnight. The on again / off again ceasefires are further designed by Russia to instill more fear in the civilian population of hold out cities.

Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate claims that the 1st Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov was killed in Kharkiv. This claim has been validated. this would mean the 41st CAA has lost two Deputy Commanders. 41 CAA is place by many attacking as part of the northern front . The Kharkiv sector is under the zone by another CAA.
OBSERVATION - Loss of two major flag officers, along with a plethora of other senior officers within a 15 day period is unreal and only serves to further constipate Russian operations.

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas of Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have stalled as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority. Talks between Poland and the US on freeing up Su 25 aircraft to give to Ukraine in exchange for new F16s is getting no where.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF dominance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Kyiv front -
Predominantly bombardment of resident areas creating excessive civilian causalities. . A lot of Russian air activity over the last 24 hrs, with their presence being challenged by ADA and Ukraine AF - with a degree of success. Russia tries to continue to push around the western side in an attempt to encircle Kyiv, but are not succeeding and facing heavy losses.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, but attempts to push southward towards Kyiv still stalled. Ukrainian counter offensive underway having some success pushing Russian forces away from Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound finger from Sumy may have had the one from Konotop join it and now may have pushed as far as the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. However, the supply line is extremely stretched and the advance is road bound - making sustaining supplies for the attack very sketchy at best to sustain any attack into the city. Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.
The Russian naval vessel hit the other day by Ukraine artillery is believed to be one of the vessels that attacked Snake Island, home of the now infamous reply by island defenders.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

CEASE FIRE -
People are fleeing the north-eastern city of Sumy, and Irpin, near Kyiv, after ceasefires were agreed to allow civilians to escape. However, Ukrainian officials say Russia is shelling an evacuation route from the besieged southern city of Mariupol Russian forces started shelling the humanitarian corridor from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol. 8 trucks + 30 buses were ready to deliver humanitarian aid to Mariupol and to evac civilians to Zaporizhzhia. Third time Russian forces have violated a humanitarian cease fire and attacked civilians. This is just another way Russia is trying to install fear into the civilians and demoralize their support against Russia.

OUTLOOK -

The gains made in the south by Russian forces will be slowed down by logistics as Ukraine forces start popping up to strike them.

Still no evidence of an impending amphibious assault on the Odessa region.

Russian AF will still be essentially awol in support of combat operations, but active bombing residential areas.

___________________________________

Poland -

Poland’s ambassador to the United States told Fox News he believes Russia has military ambitions beyond Ukraine and called for economic sanctions to potentially last for decades against the Putin regime.

“I believe Ukraine is not the last item on Mr. Putin’s menu,” said Ambassador Marek Magierowski, who spoke with Fox News from the Polish Embassy in Washington, D.C.

“We have to be ready and determined to uphold the sanctions. Perhaps even for a decade or for 15 years or for 20 years, in order to see to the real effects,” Magierowski said.

______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

EU is set to propose new round of sanctions that would target wealthy Russians and their family, and 100+ members of the upper house of the Russian Parliament who have voted in favor of measures backing the war in Ukraine.
____________________________________

Iran -

Iran’s IRGC sends Noor 2 satellite into orbit. The satellite, Iran’s second, is orbiting the Earth at a distance of around 500 kilometers and was launched from the IRGC space base in Shahrud.
OBSERVATION - This is a step in Iran’s goal of having a global capability to deliver a nuclear device. Current technology has Iran limited to the Middle East and Europe. Iran needs to create/test a nuclear device then miniaturize the components enough to create a warhead.
These are well within Iran’s capability as their military development program has matured and they are second only to China in the ability to reverse engineer technology.

Unconfirmed report that the US to lift sanctions from Iran as a part of a new nuclear treaty.

__________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Biden will sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency.
OBSERVATION - Step towards a global digital currency.
_____________________________

Economy -

The latest research note from Yardeni Research estimates the average household will spend an additional $2,000 per year in gasoline on top of an extra $1,000 in food expenses. Adding this all up, the typical household will spend $3,000 less this year on other things.
NOTE - This estimate was before biden cut out Russian oil imports.

Consumer sentiment remains at an eleven-year low as inflation soars. People living paycheck to paycheck are getting hit the worst. Some are choosing between feeding their family or filling up their tank.
OBSERVATION - This could cause civil unrest to develop as people have to choose between food and other essentials.

Congressional leaders reached a bipartisan deal early Wednesday on a $1.5 trillion spending bill needed to avert a government shutdown.
The legislation includes $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine and European allies, and $15.6 billion in funding for COVID-19 vaccines, testing, and treatments in the United States and abroad, the Associated Press reports.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
______________________________

Biden watch -

Vice President Kamala Harris departed for Poland and Romania Wednesday morning, where she is expected to deliver a message that the U.S. stands “firmly and resolutely” with NATO allies and will continue providing assistance to the Ukrainian people, senior administration officials said.
NOTE - Oh heaven help us. . . . .
___________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S. is sending two Patriot Batteries to Poland at the request of the Polish government in a move designed to bolster the country’s defense amid ongoing tensions with Russia.
_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines is warning that Russia poses a “serious cyber threat” to the U.S. as it launches cyber attacks inside Ukraine during its invasion.

_________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 14 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

U.S. officials estimate that 3,000+ Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, about 1 for every 300 in Russia’s active-duty military. No word on wounded.

********

RUMINT -

U.S. intelligence officials claimed Tuesday that Vladimir Putin is ‘desperate’ to end the conflict over Ukraine, with some privately suggesting he could set off a tactical nuclear weapon in a Ukrainian city to get the job done.

Economic hits continue to increase. -

No fry zone declared as McDonald’s says it is temporarily closing 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the Ukraine invasion.

Putin bans export of products and raw materials until Dec 31.

The Bank of Russia imposes “temporary measures for operations with cash currency.”

Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday.
Between March 9 and September 9 “the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens.”

Fitch cuts Russia’s rating, says debt default imminent - Reuters News

Starbucks Corp are temporarily closing hundreds of restaurants in Russia, with Coca-Cola and Pepsi among the latest Western companies to pause operations in the country after it moved troops into Ukraine.

Evidence of equipment shortages - trains to the front carry civilian vehicles and recent phots showing Russian troops traveling in garbage and dump trucks.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

IAEA says situation worsening at Chernobyl after Russian capture. The UN atomic watchdog said it was no longer in contact with Chernobyl monitoring equipment . Dozens of technicians have been on duty at the facility for almost two weeks under Russian control

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas around and in Kyicm, Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have stalled as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF dominance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of resident areas are creating excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, and reports that Russian forces are trying to solidify their position to the northeast of Kyiv. These forces are heavily road bound and been hit hard with ATGM and logistical interdiction. See Map link below.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound finger from Sumy may have had the one from Konotop join it and now may have pushed as far as the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. However, the supply line is extremely stretched and the advance is road bound - making sustaining supplies for the attack very sketchy at best to sustain any attack into the city. Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting. However, every cease fire was broken by Russians shortly after refugees started leaving, closing the evacuation path.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

There really isn’t much change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operations ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

I’ve expressed concern that Russia may soon turn to interdicting resupply from the west and that may result in conflict with primary Poland, which in turn draw NATO into the mix. Moscow rhetoric on the resupply tom has become increasingly heated. With sanctions taking a bigger bite on the Russian economy, Putin may turn to more dangerous and desperate measures to break the stalemate and conclude conflict in his favor.

___________________________________

Poland -

At the direction of the Secretary of Defense and at the invitation of our Polish allies, General Wolters, Commander, of U.S. European Command has directed U.S. Army Europe and Africa to reposition two Patriot Batteries to Poland,” European Command Spokesperson Scott Ghiringhelli said Tuesday. “This defensive deployment is being conducted proactively to counter any potential threat to U.S. and Allied forces and NATO territory.”
OBSERVATION - Ive noted previously that Putin may turn his attention to the flood of military supplies and weapons pouring in to Ukraine and interdiction of those supplies may become a priority to him. As the hub for receiving and getting those supplies across the border, Poland has a big target on its back.

Poland offered to sen all its Mig 29s to Germany for the US to distribute as they see fit (ie Ukraine) US pentagon and state department officials weren’t expecting this and turned the offer down.
COMMENTARY - US better fish or cut bait about getting these jets to Ukraine as they are acting like the buffoons they are.
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

On Monday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban signed a decree allowing the deployment of NATO troops to western Hungary.
The decree allows the NATO Response Force to be stationed in Hungarian territory west of the Danube River, which is far from the country’s border with Ukraine. The order allows NATO to use Hungary’s airspace, but the NATO forces cannot enter Ukraine directly from Hungary.
NOTE - Hungary’s Orban is seen as being favorably inclined toward Russia and has begrudgingly forced to follow the rest of NATO Ukraine support.
____________________________________

Middle East / N. Africa General -

Saudi Arabia & UAE reportedly snubbed phone calls with Biden over the past couple weeks. The US wanted to persuade the Gulf states to increase oil production,
___________________________________

Israel -

See Iran below RE air strike on Syria below
____________________________________

Iran -

Iran’s IRGC vows to avenge death of its two members killed in Israeli strike in Syria. High alert in northern Israel for Iranian revenge attack:
OBSERVATION - The Israeli airstrike in Syrian was initially assumed to be the standard take out Hezebollah warehouse of munitions. It now appears Israel targeted two senior IRGC colonels who were in charge o the retrofitting dumb rockets into PGM project for Hezbollah.
__________________________________

Venezuela -

President Nicolas Maduro confirmed that a team of US officials paid a rare visit to the South American country over the weekend, describing the meeting as “respectful” and “cordial.”
______________________________________

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

If one wants to track the conspiracy theory side of the issue, wuhan succeeded to cause a majority of the global population to cower to a minor threat and successfully weaken the economy. Now weaponized economic sanctions combined with global shortages is kicking out the legs of the struggling economy. Ultimately triggering an global economic collapse that will permit the GGR to step in and take over the global financial situation.
Years since 2019 have proven this line of conspiracy theory has moved to reality.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

Ukraine war has hidden activity in the category.

Last month, Austria became the first country in the world to make it illegal to be without proof of COVID vaccination, but the European nation has suspended its law after protests and reports the measure had no effect.
The government said Wednesday the law was “not proportionate to the threat” of the omicron variant of the virus that caused COVID-19, which while more contagious presents with mild symptoms. However, Austria’s constitutional minister, Karoline Edtstadler, and Health Minister Johannes Rauch said the law remains on the books and could be implemented again.
OBSERVATION - This decision made just before massive fines for failing to be jabbed were to take effect.

China on Friday ordered a lockdown of the 9 million residents of the northeastern city of Changchun amid a new spike in COVID-19 cases in the area attributed to the highly contagious omicron variant.
Residents are required to remain home, with one family member permitted to venture out to buy food and other necessities every two days. All residents must undergo three rounds of mass testing, while non-essential businesses have been closed and transport links suspended.
The latest lockdowns, which also include Yucheng with 500,000 people in the eastern province of Shandong,

Considerable articles / papers out there indicating that Pfizer and Moderna hid serious and deadly side effects from the jab are growing. Analysis of reactions to the jab from multiple countries - lead by Britain and Israel - showing the dangers and ineffectiveness of the jabs. Currently, Pfizer and Moderna are ‘protected’ from lawsuits but only to the extent that there has been no fraud - however, the fraud aspect is becoming better documented.
_____________________________

Economy -

New US Inflation record for February
YoY: 7.9%
MoM: 0.8%
NOTE: This doesn’t include fuel and housing - those would push it to an estimated 15% This is pre-oil cut off by the US. Some relate this level of inflation costing average Americans an additional $300/month.
Bloomberg is forecasting an inflation rate of 8.6% by April.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared to contradict the White House in a Thursday interview after saying that she expects another year of “uncomfortably high” inflation.
“I think there’s a lot of uncertainty related to what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine and I do think that it’s exacerbating inflation,” Yellen said on CNBC Thursday. “I don’t want to make a prediction exactly as to what’s going to happen in the second half of the year, you know, we’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain very uncomfortably high.”

OBSERVATION - So much for ‘transitory’ eh?

National average gas price is now $4.33/gal and rising

U.S. petroleum inventories are depleting to critically low levels as output fails to keep pace with the rapid rebound in consumption after the pandemic, putting intense upward pressure on oil prices. Petroleum inventories were depleting at an unsustainable rate even beforeRussia’s invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of Russia’s petroleum exports in response.
U.S. inventories of crude oil and refined products outside the strategic petroleum reserve have fallen in 63 out of the last 88 weeks according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Commercial stocks have depleted by a total of 315 million barrels since the middle of 2020, more than offsetting the 204 million barrels accumulated during the first wave of the pandemic and lockdowns.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
______________________________

Biden watch -

Politico reports that biden personally killed the Mig 29 transfer from Poland to Ukraine. This after a major failure to communicate between the State Dept and DoD.

Vice President Kamala Harris totally proved that she is an incompetent brainless idiot during a press conference in Poland.
___________________________

North Korea -

Pentagon spox - ”Based on analysis.these launches (Feb 26 and March 4, 2022 ) involved a new ICBM system that the DPRK is developing.originally unveiled during the Korean Workers Party parade on Oct 10, 2020”

South Korea conservative opposition candidate Yoon wins presidential election. Result may be a much harder line towards NK.
__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after more than 2 weeks . This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

A U.S. official estimates Russians have lost 5,000-6,000 killed in the first 2 weeks of battle. Standard battlefield math assumes 3x as many wounded as killed, so that puts the number of wounded at 15,000-18,000.

Evidence of the impacts of these war losses is reflected in recent calls for more fighters. Putin has called for foreign volunteers to be able to fight against Ukrainian forces. Speaking at a Russian security council meeting, he said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East ready to fight alongside Russia-backed forces.
OBSERVATION - They must be unable to recruit at home, likely because they don’t want to stoke anti-war sentiment any higher than it already is.

********

Global outrage at the attack that destroyed a maternity hospital that killed several children.

Economic Impacts -
- Biden will announce plans at the White House at 10:15 a.m. EST (1515 GMT) to revoke Russia’s “most favored nation” trade status
- Russian stock market still hasn’t opened, remained close since Feb 26th.

Propaganda war explodes with Russia point fingers at US/Ukraine over a wide variety of issues. Largest currently is the claim Ukraine under US guidance was developing biological weapons for use against Russia as well as Ukraine preparing to launch a chemical or dirty nuke attack. Facts are lost in the rhetoric. Many see this as an attempt to deflect from the well documented war crime attacks against Ukraine civilians and it own economic woes. The White House is now warning that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine:
OBSERVATION - Continued threats of a ‘false flag’ operation by Russia to justify harsher attacks.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

A lot of speculation by some that the ‘pause’ in Russian advancement towards Kyiv and other areas is just a resupply / reorient pause is still questionable in some aspects. The push on Kyiv has been stalled for a week now. A point in the favor of this analysis is that over the last couple days, Russian has been more active in probing attacks. However, these attacks have been soundly defeated and in fact Ukraine has been able to take advantage of the situation to launch raids and counter attacks, serving to further throw Russian forces off balance.

Russio has continued heavy artillery/bombing attacks on civilian residential areas and facilities as well as beginning to attacking new targets in different areas of the country:
* An airfield and jet engine factory were targeted in Lutsk, in the north-west
* Explosions also hit airfields at Ivano-Frankivsk, in the south-west, according to Russian defence officials
* In Dnipro, a major stronghold in central eastern Ukraine, one person was reported dead in air strikes

Satellite images taken by a US firm of the infamous 40 mile long military convoy near Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, show it has “largely dispersed and redeployed”. The convoy was last seen near Antonov Airport, north-west of Kyiv, and its movement could signal a renewed push towards the city. The firm that took the photos, Maxar Technologies, said parts of the convoy were in positions in surrounding towns. Other parts are further north, with artillery now in firing positions.
OBSERVATION - Satellite photos are a bit dated, however it appears that the Russian leaders see their equipment safer tactically dispersed than parked 2 to 4 in the open. Harder for Ukraine anti armor assets to take them out.

Various estimates have the Ukraines being supplied with about 17,000 ATGMs - the entire Russian tank inventory is about 12,000 tanks.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of resident areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.
Russia forces are still struggling to cross the Irpin River and many forces are trying to bypass that by swinging further west. The 40 mile column has tactically dispersed its vehicles into the surrounding cities and woods to try to minimize losses.

Lighter ATGM equipped Ukraine forces keeping the Russian armor at bay.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine counter attacks and raids on Russian forces near Chernihiv have opened up additional supply routes to the city. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound nature of the advance was dramatically videos as a Russian armor column (up to regimental size) got caught in a choke point and fell under Ukraine artillery, destroying numerous tanks and forcing the column to retreat. Some rumors that Russian forces had been pulled back towards Sumy and away from Kyiv.
Russian forces were reported to have made advances towards Khariv over the past couple days but uncertain if due to the pull back of hit and run Ukraine radius and counteroffensives. A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians and forces calling for a Ukraine counter attack to relieve the attacks.. The most egregious attack by Russia was the destruction of the woman maternity hospital.

Crimea Front -
Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol are all stalled out. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.

Russian amphibious ships observed off shore of the western Crimea coast between Yevpatoriia and Sevastopol. No indicators of any impending amphibious operations.

Russian army bombed a residential area in Dnipro city. Explosions damaged a shoe factory, one apartment building and a kindergarten

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Little change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operations ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

Watching closely to see if this ‘pause’ in operations results in a renewed offensive on Kyiv. However, Kyiv has become a fortress and a death trap to Russia armor if they try to enter the urban area. Well, fact is any Russia armor faces heavy losses as it remains road bound and subject to ambushes with heavily ATGM armed Ukraine forces.

The massive attack on civilians in Mariupol will continue. Attacks on civilian targets will continue elsewhere as well.

With at least 20,000 - 24, 000 dead/wounded out of an initial invasion force prepositioned of about 180,000 is about 11 - 13% personnel loss. (PENDING CONFIRMATION) This now includes a third major general - Ukrainian troops claim to have killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andriy Kolesnikov, commander of the Eastern Military District Kolesnikov would be the 3rd general killed in in 15 days of war, after Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov & Maj Gen Andrei Sukhovetsky

Short list of significant Russian equipment losses based on a close examination of OSINT information (to screen out duplicates, fakes, etc) by a group called Oryx reflect similar losses.
- Tanks (184, of which destroyed: 64, damaged: 2, abandoned: 35, captured: 83)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (110, of which destroyed: 39, abandoned: 19, captured: 50)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (161, of which destroyed: 72, abandoned: 25, captured: 64)
- Armoured Personnel Carriers (63, of which destroyed: 21, abandoned: 11, captured: 31)
- Vehicles general - 1089, of which: destroyed: 452, damaged: 14, abandoned: 166, captured: 457

In context - 83 to 97 Battalion tactical groups (BTG) were prepositioned for the attack (See post 71) Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles. Approximately 18 BTG equivalents of tanks have been lost, and at least 4 plus BTG of infantry assets. These are likely low ball numbers. Some commentators have remarked that Ukraine has captured more tanks and armor from the Russians than they have lost in combat.

BLUF - Russia is running out of capability to sustain a war short of adding a lot of reinforcements. This would mean transporting and equipping mercenaries like Syrians or pulling forces in from other military districts. Both will take weeks to accomplish. A general call up could boost manpower, but again that would take weeks to effect the combat. This would seem to push Russian planning into a continuation of the block by block destruction of key cities to eliminate resistance at a civilian toll level that soon the west (NATO) may not be able to deny and force greater intervention. Arms and material flow into Ukraine from other nations via Poland may force Putin to try to shut off those supplies, directly or indirectly Two Patriot batteries just deployed to Poland reinforces that concern by NATO. But Putin has no ground forces in position to interdict those supply lines in western Ukriane, so would have to resort to air, missile and cruse missile strikes to deter those lines. If NATO allies are hit, I would see justification for a limited no fly zone over western Ukraine an increased probability.
No evidence that Putin has an exit plan for the mess he is in, and his only options are increasing civilian death and destruction. Hence greater concerns of a NBC related attack - possibly based on a false flag narrative / incident. However, Putin didn’t use a false flag to initiate the war, contrary to expectations, so he may not be tied to a similar scenario and may strike out of the blue.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Reports of an airstrike on the village of Kopany inside Belarus near the Ukraine border, smoke seen rising.
Ukraine military claims it was done by Russian jets that had taken off from Dubrovytsia airbase as a false flag to bring Belarus into the war

OBSERVATION - Fog of war, not sure who’s planes did what to who at this stage. But Belarus is already up to its neck in supporting Russia and is already considered to be a combatant. Belarus military is one of the least trained forces in eastern Europe and Russia’s been trying to get their ground forces involved for better than a week now, indicating the manpower needs to counter major losses.

_______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Sweden joins Denmark and Germany by pledging to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP

____________________________________

Saudi Arabia -

Houthi announced it targeted ARAMCO refinery in Riyadh using 3 drones, and facilities in Jizan and Abah using six drones.

__________________________________

Syria -

Islamic State confirmed the death of its leader Abu Ibrahim Al-hashemi Al-Quraishi on Thursday and announced Abu Al-Hassan Al-hashemi Al-Quraishi as its new leader.
__________________________________

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