Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Globalists trying to twist the current fuel price explosion into a means to force ‘green ‘ switch over. Global economic crisis is also being evaluated to provide a ‘how’ to facilitate the ‘great reset’. They are looking at this as the ‘perfect storm’.

Oil price blowout and its ripple effect on the economies of the world may well kick the legs out from under the global economy. The key thins is the GGR ready to step in to take control of the economy - yet? I suspect that the Ukraine war has to be brought to a conclusion so that the uncontrolled economic shockwaves can be made ‘manageable’ by the GGR.

OBSERVATION - Consider the picture of the emperor (GGR) observing the fight between Vader and Skywalker . . . . .
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Economy -

*** ALERT *** Biden administration to impose a ban on US imports of Russian oil, LNG, and coal in an announcement scheduled for 10:45am

Meanwhile nation average gas prices hits $4.17/gal. Oil traders are speculating on $200/barrel oil by the end of the month. Russia threatening $300/barrel

Ukraine war has disrupted US and global markets already struggling in a post wuhan environments. Gold is now above $2000 and silver above $26 - with no foreseen ceiling. Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange briefly jumped to a record high above $100,000 a metric ton, before paring gains.

US markets now assessed as being in correct territory with the likelihood of a full blown recession looming hard and fast.

During a speech on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that “Forecasters uniformly agree that [economic] growth over the next several decades will be sluggish.” No discussion on Ukrianan war impacts to this forecast.

Last week, Russia’s trade and industry ministry recommended fertilizer producers temporarily halt exports. The proposed suspension is another signal that Western sanctions will impact global food prices. Russia produces more than 50 million tonnes of fertilizers per year, making up 13% of the total global supply.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - The gasoline crisis threatens the economy like no other threat in my lifetime IMHO because it affects ALL other sectors of the economy in one way or another. This makes any rate hikes by the Fed even more dicer as a wrong move could push us past a recession into a full blown depression.
My advice is stock up now on needs you can forecast - both as a price savings, but availability issue. The window is closing and this summer could be brutal. $200/barrel oil will essentially double current gasoline prices - keep that in mind for food, and other products.
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Invasion of Illegals -

What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -

Announcement of oil bans due 1045 today.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Buried under the other news is the threat from food shortages across the country. This is getting worse and with skyrocketing fuel and other prices people are going to be hard pressed and the potential for violent actions increase.

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Domestic Terror -

A Guantanamo Bay detainee dubbed the “20th hijacker of 9/11” has been repatriated by the Biden administration to Saudi Arabia, where the al-Quaeda-trained would-be terrorist will receive treatment at a psychiatric facility.

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North Korea -

(Reuters) – North Korea’s missile launches could be groundwork for a return to intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear bomb tests this year for the first time since 2017, the U.S. Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI) said in its annual Worldwide Threat Assessment released on Monday.
On Tuesday, U.S.-based analysts said commercial satellite imagery shows construction at North Korea’s nuclear testing site for the first time since it was closed in 2018.
International experts have also reported that North Korea’s main nuclear reactor facility at Yongbyon appears to be in full swing, potentially creating additional fuel for nuclear weapons.

OBSERVATIONS - This was coming in spite of the Ukraine war. Its clear to Kim that biden is a do nothing and that they can proceed with their plans. If they resume nuclear tests, Japan may be pushed into a move to go nuclear as well. Online NK tests under 0bama, so far no demands to raise sanctions, etc have been made (or if they have, they’ve been drown out by Ukraine).

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 13 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Economic hits continue to increase. -

More sanctions going on line against the ruling elite of Russia from across the world.
Ruble is worth something in the neighborhood of one-half of a penny.
Top officials in the Congress reached an agreement Monday on legislation that would ban Russian oil imports to the U.S. and end Russia’s permanent normal trade relation status in response to the intensifying war in Ukraine, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
Bloomberg: The odds of a Russian default now around 80%

Protests continue across Russia against the war. Thousand have been arrested.

The U.S. is among 48 nations whose governments have committed “unfriendly actions” against Russia, the Kremlin says. Russian citizens, companies and government bodies that owe money to those countries can pay debts in rubles, the decree says.

Shell says it will immediately stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil following criticism
The Russian deputy PM has warned that Moscow could retaliate against European sanctions by cutting off natural gas to the bloc

Russia warned that oil prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine as peace talks on Monday made little progress.

Russia announced that no later than March 11, all internet traffic must use domestic “domain name systems” (DNS). This would effectively remove Russia from the global internet as only “.ru” connections would be made.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . In recent days Ukraine has seen snowfall across parts of the country. A cold snap, is now forces for midweek. Cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv will experience “biting windchill” of -13C to -20C at times during the next few days.
OBSERVATION - This cold snap may firm up off road movement a little, but they shouldn’t count on it. More likely it will stress Russian troops who are in the open while Ukraine defenders are in warm positions. May result in decreased combat operations on the ground as well as the air.

RUNINT -
Not quite RUMINT but getting accurate loss figures is nearly impossible in this war, but there have been some analysts who’ve painstakingly sorted through the data to come up with some reasonable estimates since the start o the war.
- Russian losses- 902 vehicles, including 143 tanks and 272 A/IFVs
- Ukrainian losses- 272 vehicles, including 46 tanks and 89 A/IFVs

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian attacks on civilian residential areas continued at a high rate, some saying it increased overnight. The on again / off again ceasefires are further designed by Russia to instill more fear in the civilian population of hold out cities.

Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate claims that the 1st Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov was killed in Kharkiv. This claim has been validated. this would mean the 41st CAA has lost two Deputy Commanders. 41 CAA is place by many attacking as part of the northern front . The Kharkiv sector is under the zone by another CAA.
OBSERVATION - Loss of two major flag officers, along with a plethora of other senior officers within a 15 day period is unreal and only serves to further constipate Russian operations.

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas of Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have stalled as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority. Talks between Poland and the US on freeing up Su 25 aircraft to give to Ukraine in exchange for new F16s is getting no where.

Ukraine forces still very successful in armor ambushes using the abundant ATGMs and other anti armor munitions. Logistic columns particularly vulnerable to interdiction. Local counterattacks by Ukraine forces have been successful in several locations.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF dominance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Kyiv front -
Predominantly bombardment of resident areas creating excessive civilian causalities. . A lot of Russian air activity over the last 24 hrs, with their presence being challenged by ADA and Ukraine AF - with a degree of success. Russia tries to continue to push around the western side in an attempt to encircle Kyiv, but are not succeeding and facing heavy losses.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, but attempts to push southward towards Kyiv still stalled. Ukrainian counter offensive underway having some success pushing Russian forces away from Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound finger from Sumy may have had the one from Konotop join it and now may have pushed as far as the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. However, the supply line is extremely stretched and the advance is road bound - making sustaining supplies for the attack very sketchy at best to sustain any attack into the city. Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.
The Russian naval vessel hit the other day by Ukraine artillery is believed to be one of the vessels that attacked Snake Island, home of the now infamous reply by island defenders.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

CEASE FIRE -
People are fleeing the north-eastern city of Sumy, and Irpin, near Kyiv, after ceasefires were agreed to allow civilians to escape. However, Ukrainian officials say Russia is shelling an evacuation route from the besieged southern city of Mariupol Russian forces started shelling the humanitarian corridor from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol. 8 trucks + 30 buses were ready to deliver humanitarian aid to Mariupol and to evac civilians to Zaporizhzhia. Third time Russian forces have violated a humanitarian cease fire and attacked civilians. This is just another way Russia is trying to install fear into the civilians and demoralize their support against Russia.

OUTLOOK -

The gains made in the south by Russian forces will be slowed down by logistics as Ukraine forces start popping up to strike them.

Still no evidence of an impending amphibious assault on the Odessa region.

Russian AF will still be essentially awol in support of combat operations, but active bombing residential areas.

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Poland -

Poland’s ambassador to the United States told Fox News he believes Russia has military ambitions beyond Ukraine and called for economic sanctions to potentially last for decades against the Putin regime.

“I believe Ukraine is not the last item on Mr. Putin’s menu,” said Ambassador Marek Magierowski, who spoke with Fox News from the Polish Embassy in Washington, D.C.

“We have to be ready and determined to uphold the sanctions. Perhaps even for a decade or for 15 years or for 20 years, in order to see to the real effects,” Magierowski said.

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Europe / NATO General -

EU is set to propose new round of sanctions that would target wealthy Russians and their family, and 100+ members of the upper house of the Russian Parliament who have voted in favor of measures backing the war in Ukraine.
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Iran -

Iran’s IRGC sends Noor 2 satellite into orbit. The satellite, Iran’s second, is orbiting the Earth at a distance of around 500 kilometers and was launched from the IRGC space base in Shahrud.
OBSERVATION - This is a step in Iran’s goal of having a global capability to deliver a nuclear device. Current technology has Iran limited to the Middle East and Europe. Iran needs to create/test a nuclear device then miniaturize the components enough to create a warhead.
These are well within Iran’s capability as their military development program has matured and they are second only to China in the ability to reverse engineer technology.

Unconfirmed report that the US to lift sanctions from Iran as a part of a new nuclear treaty.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Biden will sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency.
OBSERVATION - Step towards a global digital currency.
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Economy -

The latest research note from Yardeni Research estimates the average household will spend an additional $2,000 per year in gasoline on top of an extra $1,000 in food expenses. Adding this all up, the typical household will spend $3,000 less this year on other things.
NOTE - This estimate was before biden cut out Russian oil imports.

Consumer sentiment remains at an eleven-year low as inflation soars. People living paycheck to paycheck are getting hit the worst. Some are choosing between feeding their family or filling up their tank.
OBSERVATION - This could cause civil unrest to develop as people have to choose between food and other essentials.

Congressional leaders reached a bipartisan deal early Wednesday on a $1.5 trillion spending bill needed to avert a government shutdown.
The legislation includes $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine and European allies, and $15.6 billion in funding for COVID-19 vaccines, testing, and treatments in the United States and abroad, the Associated Press reports.
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Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -

Vice President Kamala Harris departed for Poland and Romania Wednesday morning, where she is expected to deliver a message that the U.S. stands “firmly and resolutely” with NATO allies and will continue providing assistance to the Ukrainian people, senior administration officials said.
NOTE - Oh heaven help us. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S. is sending two Patriot Batteries to Poland at the request of the Polish government in a move designed to bolster the country’s defense amid ongoing tensions with Russia.
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Cyber Warfare -

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines is warning that Russia poses a “serious cyber threat” to the U.S. as it launches cyber attacks inside Ukraine during its invasion.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 14 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

U.S. officials estimate that 3,000+ Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, about 1 for every 300 in Russia’s active-duty military. No word on wounded.

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RUMINT -

U.S. intelligence officials claimed Tuesday that Vladimir Putin is ‘desperate’ to end the conflict over Ukraine, with some privately suggesting he could set off a tactical nuclear weapon in a Ukrainian city to get the job done.

Economic hits continue to increase. -

No fry zone declared as McDonald’s says it is temporarily closing 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the Ukraine invasion.

Putin bans export of products and raw materials until Dec 31.

The Bank of Russia imposes “temporary measures for operations with cash currency.”

Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday.
Between March 9 and September 9 “the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens.”

Fitch cuts Russia’s rating, says debt default imminent - Reuters News

Starbucks Corp are temporarily closing hundreds of restaurants in Russia, with Coca-Cola and Pepsi among the latest Western companies to pause operations in the country after it moved troops into Ukraine.

Evidence of equipment shortages - trains to the front carry civilian vehicles and recent phots showing Russian troops traveling in garbage and dump trucks.

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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

IAEA says situation worsening at Chernobyl after Russian capture. The UN atomic watchdog said it was no longer in contact with Chernobyl monitoring equipment . Dozens of technicians have been on duty at the facility for almost two weeks under Russian control

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas around and in Kyicm, Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have stalled as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF dominance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of resident areas are creating excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, and reports that Russian forces are trying to solidify their position to the northeast of Kyiv. These forces are heavily road bound and been hit hard with ATGM and logistical interdiction. See Map link below.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound finger from Sumy may have had the one from Konotop join it and now may have pushed as far as the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. However, the supply line is extremely stretched and the advance is road bound - making sustaining supplies for the attack very sketchy at best to sustain any attack into the city. Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting. However, every cease fire was broken by Russians shortly after refugees started leaving, closing the evacuation path.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

There really isn’t much change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operations ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

I’ve expressed concern that Russia may soon turn to interdicting resupply from the west and that may result in conflict with primary Poland, which in turn draw NATO into the mix. Moscow rhetoric on the resupply tom has become increasingly heated. With sanctions taking a bigger bite on the Russian economy, Putin may turn to more dangerous and desperate measures to break the stalemate and conclude conflict in his favor.

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Poland -

At the direction of the Secretary of Defense and at the invitation of our Polish allies, General Wolters, Commander, of U.S. European Command has directed U.S. Army Europe and Africa to reposition two Patriot Batteries to Poland,” European Command Spokesperson Scott Ghiringhelli said Tuesday. “This defensive deployment is being conducted proactively to counter any potential threat to U.S. and Allied forces and NATO territory.”
OBSERVATION - Ive noted previously that Putin may turn his attention to the flood of military supplies and weapons pouring in to Ukraine and interdiction of those supplies may become a priority to him. As the hub for receiving and getting those supplies across the border, Poland has a big target on its back.

Poland offered to sen all its Mig 29s to Germany for the US to distribute as they see fit (ie Ukraine) US pentagon and state department officials weren’t expecting this and turned the offer down.
COMMENTARY - US better fish or cut bait about getting these jets to Ukraine as they are acting like the buffoons they are.
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Europe / NATO General -

On Monday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban signed a decree allowing the deployment of NATO troops to western Hungary.
The decree allows the NATO Response Force to be stationed in Hungarian territory west of the Danube River, which is far from the country’s border with Ukraine. The order allows NATO to use Hungary’s airspace, but the NATO forces cannot enter Ukraine directly from Hungary.
NOTE - Hungary’s Orban is seen as being favorably inclined toward Russia and has begrudgingly forced to follow the rest of NATO Ukraine support.
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Middle East / N. Africa General -

Saudi Arabia & UAE reportedly snubbed phone calls with Biden over the past couple weeks. The US wanted to persuade the Gulf states to increase oil production,
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Israel -

See Iran below RE air strike on Syria below
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Iran -

Iran’s IRGC vows to avenge death of its two members killed in Israeli strike in Syria. High alert in northern Israel for Iranian revenge attack:
OBSERVATION - The Israeli airstrike in Syrian was initially assumed to be the standard take out Hezebollah warehouse of munitions. It now appears Israel targeted two senior IRGC colonels who were in charge o the retrofitting dumb rockets into PGM project for Hezbollah.
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Venezuela -

President Nicolas Maduro confirmed that a team of US officials paid a rare visit to the South American country over the weekend, describing the meeting as “respectful” and “cordial.”
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