Replies

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Biden will sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency.
OBSERVATION - Step towards a global digital currency.
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Economy -

The latest research note from Yardeni Research estimates the average household will spend an additional $2,000 per year in gasoline on top of an extra $1,000 in food expenses. Adding this all up, the typical household will spend $3,000 less this year on other things.
NOTE - This estimate was before biden cut out Russian oil imports.

Consumer sentiment remains at an eleven-year low as inflation soars. People living paycheck to paycheck are getting hit the worst. Some are choosing between feeding their family or filling up their tank.
OBSERVATION - This could cause civil unrest to develop as people have to choose between food and other essentials.

Congressional leaders reached a bipartisan deal early Wednesday on a $1.5 trillion spending bill needed to avert a government shutdown.
The legislation includes $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine and European allies, and $15.6 billion in funding for COVID-19 vaccines, testing, and treatments in the United States and abroad, the Associated Press reports.
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Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -

Vice President Kamala Harris departed for Poland and Romania Wednesday morning, where she is expected to deliver a message that the U.S. stands “firmly and resolutely” with NATO allies and will continue providing assistance to the Ukrainian people, senior administration officials said.
NOTE - Oh heaven help us. . . . .
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S. is sending two Patriot Batteries to Poland at the request of the Polish government in a move designed to bolster the country’s defense amid ongoing tensions with Russia.
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Cyber Warfare -

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines is warning that Russia poses a “serious cyber threat” to the U.S. as it launches cyber attacks inside Ukraine during its invasion.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 14 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

U.S. officials estimate that 3,000+ Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, about 1 for every 300 in Russia’s active-duty military. No word on wounded.

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RUMINT -

U.S. intelligence officials claimed Tuesday that Vladimir Putin is ‘desperate’ to end the conflict over Ukraine, with some privately suggesting he could set off a tactical nuclear weapon in a Ukrainian city to get the job done.

Economic hits continue to increase. -

No fry zone declared as McDonald’s says it is temporarily closing 850 restaurants in Russia in response to the Ukraine invasion.

Putin bans export of products and raw materials until Dec 31.

The Bank of Russia imposes “temporary measures for operations with cash currency.”

Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday.
Between March 9 and September 9 “the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens.”

Fitch cuts Russia’s rating, says debt default imminent - Reuters News

Starbucks Corp are temporarily closing hundreds of restaurants in Russia, with Coca-Cola and Pepsi among the latest Western companies to pause operations in the country after it moved troops into Ukraine.

Evidence of equipment shortages - trains to the front carry civilian vehicles and recent phots showing Russian troops traveling in garbage and dump trucks.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . In recent days Ukraine has seen snowfall across parts of the country. A cold snap, is now forces for midweek. Cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv will experience “biting windchill” of -13C to -20C at times during the next few days.
OBSERVATION - This cold snap may firm up off road movement a little, but they shouldn’t count on it. More likely it will stress Russian troops who are in the open while Ukraine defenders are in warm positions. May result in decreased combat operations on the ground as well as the air.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

IAEA says situation worsening at Chernobyl after Russian capture. The UN atomic watchdog said it was no longer in contact with Chernobyl monitoring equipment . Dozens of technicians have been on duty at the facility for almost two weeks under Russian control

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas around and in Kyicm, Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have stalled as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority.

Ukraine forces still very successful in armor ambushes using the abundant ATGMs and other anti armor munitions. Logistic columns particularly vulnerable to interdiction. Local counterattacks by Ukraine forces have been successful in several locations.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF dominance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of resident areas are creating excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, and reports that Russian forces are trying to solidify their position to the northeast of Kyiv. These forces are heavily road bound and been hit hard with ATGM and logistical interdiction. See Map link below.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound finger from Sumy may have had the one from Konotop join it and now may have pushed as far as the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. However, the supply line is extremely stretched and the advance is road bound - making sustaining supplies for the attack very sketchy at best to sustain any attack into the city. Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting. However, every cease fire was broken by Russians shortly after refugees started leaving, closing the evacuation path.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

There really isn’t much change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operations ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

I’ve expressed concern that Russia may soon turn to interdicting resupply from the west and that may result in conflict with primary Poland, which in turn draw NATO into the mix. Moscow rhetoric on the resupply tom has become increasingly heated. With sanctions taking a bigger bite on the Russian economy, Putin may turn to more dangerous and desperate measures to break the stalemate and conclude conflict in his favor.

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Poland -

At the direction of the Secretary of Defense and at the invitation of our Polish allies, General Wolters, Commander, of U.S. European Command has directed U.S. Army Europe and Africa to reposition two Patriot Batteries to Poland,” European Command Spokesperson Scott Ghiringhelli said Tuesday. “This defensive deployment is being conducted proactively to counter any potential threat to U.S. and Allied forces and NATO territory.”
OBSERVATION - Ive noted previously that Putin may turn his attention to the flood of military supplies and weapons pouring in to Ukraine and interdiction of those supplies may become a priority to him. As the hub for receiving and getting those supplies across the border, Poland has a big target on its back.

Poland offered to sen all its Mig 29s to Germany for the US to distribute as they see fit (ie Ukraine) US pentagon and state department officials weren’t expecting this and turned the offer down.
COMMENTARY - US better fish or cut bait about getting these jets to Ukraine as they are acting like the buffoons they are.
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Europe / NATO General -

On Monday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban signed a decree allowing the deployment of NATO troops to western Hungary.
The decree allows the NATO Response Force to be stationed in Hungarian territory west of the Danube River, which is far from the country’s border with Ukraine. The order allows NATO to use Hungary’s airspace, but the NATO forces cannot enter Ukraine directly from Hungary.
NOTE - Hungary’s Orban is seen as being favorably inclined toward Russia and has begrudgingly forced to follow the rest of NATO Ukraine support.
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Middle East / N. Africa General -

Saudi Arabia & UAE reportedly snubbed phone calls with Biden over the past couple weeks. The US wanted to persuade the Gulf states to increase oil production,
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Israel -

See Iran below RE air strike on Syria below
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Iran -

Iran’s IRGC vows to avenge death of its two members killed in Israeli strike in Syria. High alert in northern Israel for Iranian revenge attack:
OBSERVATION - The Israeli airstrike in Syrian was initially assumed to be the standard take out Hezebollah warehouse of munitions. It now appears Israel targeted two senior IRGC colonels who were in charge o the retrofitting dumb rockets into PGM project for Hezbollah.
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Venezuela -

President Nicolas Maduro confirmed that a team of US officials paid a rare visit to the South American country over the weekend, describing the meeting as “respectful” and “cordial.”
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Globalism / Great Reset -

If one wants to track the conspiracy theory side of the issue, wuhan succeeded to cause a majority of the global population to cower to a minor threat and successfully weaken the economy. Now weaponized economic sanctions combined with global shortages is kicking out the legs of the struggling economy. Ultimately triggering an global economic collapse that will permit the GGR to step in and take over the global financial situation.
Years since 2019 have proven this line of conspiracy theory has moved to reality.
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Wuhan virus -

Ukraine war has hidden activity in the category.

Last month, Austria became the first country in the world to make it illegal to be without proof of COVID vaccination, but the European nation has suspended its law after protests and reports the measure had no effect.
The government said Wednesday the law was “not proportionate to the threat” of the omicron variant of the virus that caused COVID-19, which while more contagious presents with mild symptoms. However, Austria’s constitutional minister, Karoline Edtstadler, and Health Minister Johannes Rauch said the law remains on the books and could be implemented again.
OBSERVATION - This decision made just before massive fines for failing to be jabbed were to take effect.

China on Friday ordered a lockdown of the 9 million residents of the northeastern city of Changchun amid a new spike in COVID-19 cases in the area attributed to the highly contagious omicron variant.
Residents are required to remain home, with one family member permitted to venture out to buy food and other necessities every two days. All residents must undergo three rounds of mass testing, while non-essential businesses have been closed and transport links suspended.
The latest lockdowns, which also include Yucheng with 500,000 people in the eastern province of Shandong,

Considerable articles / papers out there indicating that Pfizer and Moderna hid serious and deadly side effects from the jab are growing. Analysis of reactions to the jab from multiple countries - lead by Britain and Israel - showing the dangers and ineffectiveness of the jabs. Currently, Pfizer and Moderna are ‘protected’ from lawsuits but only to the extent that there has been no fraud - however, the fraud aspect is becoming better documented.
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Economy -

New US Inflation record for February
YoY: 7.9%
MoM: 0.8%
NOTE: This doesn’t include fuel and housing - those would push it to an estimated 15% This is pre-oil cut off by the US. Some relate this level of inflation costing average Americans an additional $300/month.
Bloomberg is forecasting an inflation rate of 8.6% by April.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared to contradict the White House in a Thursday interview after saying that she expects another year of “uncomfortably high” inflation.
“I think there’s a lot of uncertainty related to what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine and I do think that it’s exacerbating inflation,” Yellen said on CNBC Thursday. “I don’t want to make a prediction exactly as to what’s going to happen in the second half of the year, you know, we’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain very uncomfortably high.”

OBSERVATION - So much for ‘transitory’ eh?

National average gas price is now $4.33/gal and rising

U.S. petroleum inventories are depleting to critically low levels as output fails to keep pace with the rapid rebound in consumption after the pandemic, putting intense upward pressure on oil prices. Petroleum inventories were depleting at an unsustainable rate even beforeRussia’s invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of Russia’s petroleum exports in response.
U.S. inventories of crude oil and refined products outside the strategic petroleum reserve have fallen in 63 out of the last 88 weeks according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Commercial stocks have depleted by a total of 315 million barrels since the middle of 2020, more than offsetting the 204 million barrels accumulated during the first wave of the pandemic and lockdowns.

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Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -

Politico reports that biden personally killed the Mig 29 transfer from Poland to Ukraine. This after a major failure to communicate between the State Dept and DoD.

Vice President Kamala Harris totally proved that she is an incompetent brainless idiot during a press conference in Poland.
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North Korea -

Pentagon spox - ”Based on analysis.these launches (Feb 26 and March 4, 2022 ) involved a new ICBM system that the DPRK is developing.originally unveiled during the Korean Workers Party parade on Oct 10, 2020”

South Korea conservative opposition candidate Yoon wins presidential election. Result may be a much harder line towards NK.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after more than 2 weeks . This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

A U.S. official estimates Russians have lost 5,000-6,000 killed in the first 2 weeks of battle. Standard battlefield math assumes 3x as many wounded as killed, so that puts the number of wounded at 15,000-18,000.

Evidence of the impacts of these war losses is reflected in recent calls for more fighters. Putin has called for foreign volunteers to be able to fight against Ukrainian forces. Speaking at a Russian security council meeting, he said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East ready to fight alongside Russia-backed forces.
OBSERVATION - They must be unable to recruit at home, likely because they don’t want to stoke anti-war sentiment any higher than it already is.

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Global outrage at the attack that destroyed a maternity hospital that killed several children.

Economic Impacts -
- Biden will announce plans at the White House at 10:15 a.m. EST (1515 GMT) to revoke Russia’s “most favored nation” trade status
- Russian stock market still hasn’t opened, remained close since Feb 26th.

Propaganda war explodes with Russia point fingers at US/Ukraine over a wide variety of issues. Largest currently is the claim Ukraine under US guidance was developing biological weapons for use against Russia as well as Ukraine preparing to launch a chemical or dirty nuke attack. Facts are lost in the rhetoric. Many see this as an attempt to deflect from the well documented war crime attacks against Ukraine civilians and it own economic woes. The White House is now warning that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine:
OBSERVATION - Continued threats of a ‘false flag’ operation by Russia to justify harsher attacks.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

A lot of speculation by some that the ‘pause’ in Russian advancement towards Kyiv and other areas is just a resupply / reorient pause is still questionable in some aspects. The push on Kyiv has been stalled for a week now. A point in the favor of this analysis is that over the last couple days, Russian has been more active in probing attacks. However, these attacks have been soundly defeated and in fact Ukraine has been able to take advantage of the situation to launch raids and counter attacks, serving to further throw Russian forces off balance.

Russio has continued heavy artillery/bombing attacks on civilian residential areas and facilities as well as beginning to attacking new targets in different areas of the country:
* An airfield and jet engine factory were targeted in Lutsk, in the north-west
* Explosions also hit airfields at Ivano-Frankivsk, in the south-west, according to Russian defence officials
* In Dnipro, a major stronghold in central eastern Ukraine, one person was reported dead in air strikes

Satellite images taken by a US firm of the infamous 40 mile long military convoy near Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, show it has “largely dispersed and redeployed”. The convoy was last seen near Antonov Airport, north-west of Kyiv, and its movement could signal a renewed push towards the city. The firm that took the photos, Maxar Technologies, said parts of the convoy were in positions in surrounding towns. Other parts are further north, with artillery now in firing positions.
OBSERVATION - Satellite photos are a bit dated, however it appears that the Russian leaders see their equipment safer tactically dispersed than parked 2 to 4 in the open. Harder for Ukraine anti armor assets to take them out.

Various estimates have the Ukraines being supplied with about 17,000 ATGMs - the entire Russian tank inventory is about 12,000 tanks.

Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of resident areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.
Russia forces are still struggling to cross the Irpin River and many forces are trying to bypass that by swinging further west. The 40 mile column has tactically dispersed its vehicles into the surrounding cities and woods to try to minimize losses.

Lighter ATGM equipped Ukraine forces keeping the Russian armor at bay.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine counter attacks and raids on Russian forces near Chernihiv have opened up additional supply routes to the city. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound nature of the advance was dramatically videos as a Russian armor column (up to regimental size) got caught in a choke point and fell under Ukraine artillery, destroying numerous tanks and forcing the column to retreat. Some rumors that Russian forces had been pulled back towards Sumy and away from Kyiv.
Russian forces were reported to have made advances towards Khariv over the past couple days but uncertain if due to the pull back of hit and run Ukraine radius and counteroffensives. A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians and forces calling for a Ukraine counter attack to relieve the attacks.. The most egregious attack by Russia was the destruction of the woman maternity hospital.

Crimea Front -
Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol are all stalled out. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.

Russian amphibious ships observed off shore of the western Crimea coast between Yevpatoriia and Sevastopol. No indicators of any impending amphibious operations.

Russian army bombed a residential area in Dnipro city. Explosions damaged a shoe factory, one apartment building and a kindergarten

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Little change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operations ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.

Watching closely to see if this ‘pause’ in operations results in a renewed offensive on Kyiv. However, Kyiv has become a fortress and a death trap to Russia armor if they try to enter the urban area. Well, fact is any Russia armor faces heavy losses as it remains road bound and subject to ambushes with heavily ATGM armed Ukraine forces.

The massive attack on civilians in Mariupol will continue. Attacks on civilian targets will continue elsewhere as well.

With at least 20,000 - 24, 000 dead/wounded out of an initial invasion force prepositioned of about 180,000 is about 11 - 13% personnel loss. (PENDING CONFIRMATION) This now includes a third major general - Ukrainian troops claim to have killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andriy Kolesnikov, commander of the Eastern Military District Kolesnikov would be the 3rd general killed in in 15 days of war, after Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov & Maj Gen Andrei Sukhovetsky

Short list of significant Russian equipment losses based on a close examination of OSINT information (to screen out duplicates, fakes, etc) by a group called Oryx reflect similar losses.
- Tanks (184, of which destroyed: 64, damaged: 2, abandoned: 35, captured: 83)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (110, of which destroyed: 39, abandoned: 19, captured: 50)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (161, of which destroyed: 72, abandoned: 25, captured: 64)
- Armoured Personnel Carriers (63, of which destroyed: 21, abandoned: 11, captured: 31)
- Vehicles general - 1089, of which: destroyed: 452, damaged: 14, abandoned: 166, captured: 457

In context - 83 to 97 Battalion tactical groups (BTG) were prepositioned for the attack (See post 71) Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles. Approximately 18 BTG equivalents of tanks have been lost, and at least 4 plus BTG of infantry assets. These are likely low ball numbers. Some commentators have remarked that Ukraine has captured more tanks and armor from the Russians than they have lost in combat.

BLUF - Russia is running out of capability to sustain a war short of adding a lot of reinforcements. This would mean transporting and equipping mercenaries like Syrians or pulling forces in from other military districts. Both will take weeks to accomplish. A general call up could boost manpower, but again that would take weeks to effect the combat. This would seem to push Russian planning into a continuation of the block by block destruction of key cities to eliminate resistance at a civilian toll level that soon the west (NATO) may not be able to deny and force greater intervention. Arms and material flow into Ukraine from other nations via Poland may force Putin to try to shut off those supplies, directly or indirectly Two Patriot batteries just deployed to Poland reinforces that concern by NATO. But Putin has no ground forces in position to interdict those supply lines in western Ukriane, so would have to resort to air, missile and cruse missile strikes to deter those lines. If NATO allies are hit, I would see justification for a limited no fly zone over western Ukraine an increased probability.
No evidence that Putin has an exit plan for the mess he is in, and his only options are increasing civilian death and destruction. Hence greater concerns of a NBC related attack - possibly based on a false flag narrative / incident. However, Putin didn’t use a false flag to initiate the war, contrary to expectations, so he may not be tied to a similar scenario and may strike out of the blue.
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Belarus -

Reports of an airstrike on the village of Kopany inside Belarus near the Ukraine border, smoke seen rising.
Ukraine military claims it was done by Russian jets that had taken off from Dubrovytsia airbase as a false flag to bring Belarus into the war

OBSERVATION - Fog of war, not sure who’s planes did what to who at this stage. But Belarus is already up to its neck in supporting Russia and is already considered to be a combatant. Belarus military is one of the least trained forces in eastern Europe and Russia’s been trying to get their ground forces involved for better than a week now, indicating the manpower needs to counter major losses.

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Europe / NATO General -

Sweden joins Denmark and Germany by pledging to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP

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Saudi Arabia -

Houthi announced it targeted ARAMCO refinery in Riyadh using 3 drones, and facilities in Jizan and Abah using six drones.

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Syria -

Islamic State confirmed the death of its leader Abu Ibrahim Al-hashemi Al-Quraishi on Thursday and announced Abu Al-Hassan Al-hashemi Al-Quraishi as its new leader.
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