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Globalism / Great Reset -
If one wants to track the conspiracy theory side of the issue, wuhan succeeded to cause a majority of the global population to cower to a minor threat and successfully weaken the economy. Now weaponized economic sanctions combined with global shortages is kicking out the legs of the struggling economy. Ultimately triggering an global economic collapse that will permit the GGR to step in and take over the global financial situation.
Years since 2019 have proven this line of conspiracy theory has moved to reality.
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Wuhan virus -
Ukraine war has hidden activity in the category.
Last month, Austria became the first country in the world to make it illegal to be without proof of COVID vaccination, but the European nation has suspended its law after protests and reports the measure had no effect.
The government said Wednesday the law was “not proportionate to the threat” of the omicron variant of the virus that caused COVID-19, which while more contagious presents with mild symptoms. However, Austria’s constitutional minister, Karoline Edtstadler, and Health Minister Johannes Rauch said the law remains on the books and could be implemented again.
OBSERVATION - This decision made just before massive fines for failing to be jabbed were to take effect.
China on Friday ordered a lockdown of the 9 million residents of the northeastern city of Changchun amid a new spike in COVID-19 cases in the area attributed to the highly contagious omicron variant.
Residents are required to remain home, with one family member permitted to venture out to buy food and other necessities every two days. All residents must undergo three rounds of mass testing, while non-essential businesses have been closed and transport links suspended.
The latest lockdowns, which also include Yucheng with 500,000 people in the eastern province of Shandong,
Considerable articles / papers out there indicating that Pfizer and Moderna hid serious and deadly side effects from the jab are growing. Analysis of reactions to the jab from multiple countries - lead by Britain and Israel - showing the dangers and ineffectiveness of the jabs. Currently, Pfizer and Moderna are ‘protected’ from lawsuits but only to the extent that there has been no fraud - however, the fraud aspect is becoming better documented.
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Economy -
New US Inflation record for February
YoY: 7.9%
MoM: 0.8%
NOTE: This doesn’t include fuel and housing - those would push it to an estimated 15% This is pre-oil cut off by the US. Some relate this level of inflation costing average Americans an additional $300/month.
Bloomberg is forecasting an inflation rate of 8.6% by April.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared to contradict the White House in a Thursday interview after saying that she expects another year of “uncomfortably high” inflation.
“I think there’s a lot of uncertainty related to what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine and I do think that it’s exacerbating inflation,” Yellen said on CNBC Thursday. “I don’t want to make a prediction exactly as to what’s going to happen in the second half of the year, you know, we’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain very uncomfortably high.”
OBSERVATION - So much for ‘transitory’ eh?
National average gas price is now $4.33/gal and rising
U.S. petroleum inventories are depleting to critically low levels as output fails to keep pace with the rapid rebound in consumption after the pandemic, putting intense upward pressure on oil prices. Petroleum inventories were depleting at an unsustainable rate even beforeRussia’s invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of Russia’s petroleum exports in response.
U.S. inventories of crude oil and refined products outside the strategic petroleum reserve have fallen in 63 out of the last 88 weeks according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Commercial stocks have depleted by a total of 315 million barrels since the middle of 2020, more than offsetting the 204 million barrels accumulated during the first wave of the pandemic and lockdowns.
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Invasion of Illegals -
/What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -
Politico reports that biden personally killed the Mig 29 transfer from Poland to Ukraine. This after a major failure to communicate between the State Dept and DoD.
Vice President Kamala Harris totally proved that she is an incompetent brainless idiot during a press conference in Poland.
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North Korea -
Pentagon spox - ”Based on analysis.these launches (Feb 26 and March 4, 2022 ) involved a new ICBM system that the DPRK is developing.originally unveiled during the Korean Workers Party parade on Oct 10, 2020”
South Korea conservative opposition candidate Yoon wins presidential election. Result may be a much harder line towards NK.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after more than 2 weeks . This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
A U.S. official estimates Russians have lost 5,000-6,000 killed in the first 2 weeks of battle. Standard battlefield math assumes 3x as many wounded as killed, so that puts the number of wounded at 15,000-18,000.
Evidence of the impacts of these war losses is reflected in recent calls for more fighters. Putin has called for foreign volunteers to be able to fight against Ukrainian forces. Speaking at a Russian security council meeting, he said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East ready to fight alongside Russia-backed forces.
OBSERVATION - They must be unable to recruit at home, likely because they don’t want to stoke anti-war sentiment any higher than it already is.
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Global outrage at the attack that destroyed a maternity hospital that killed several children.
Economic Impacts -
- Biden will announce plans at the White House at 10:15 a.m. EST (1515 GMT) to revoke Russia’s “most favored nation” trade status
- Russian stock market still hasn’t opened, remained close since Feb 26th.
Propaganda war explodes with Russia point fingers at US/Ukraine over a wide variety of issues. Largest currently is the claim Ukraine under US guidance was developing biological weapons for use against Russia as well as Ukraine preparing to launch a chemical or dirty nuke attack. Facts are lost in the rhetoric. Many see this as an attempt to deflect from the well documented war crime attacks against Ukraine civilians and it own economic woes. The White House is now warning that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine:
OBSERVATION - Continued threats of a ‘false flag’ operation by Russia to justify harsher attacks.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A lot of speculation by some that the ‘pause’ in Russian advancement towards Kyiv and other areas is just a resupply / reorient pause is still questionable in some aspects. The push on Kyiv has been stalled for a week now. A point in the favor of this analysis is that over the last couple days, Russian has been more active in probing attacks. However, these attacks have been soundly defeated and in fact Ukraine has been able to take advantage of the situation to launch raids and counter attacks, serving to further throw Russian forces off balance.
Russio has continued heavy artillery/bombing attacks on civilian residential areas and facilities as well as beginning to attacking new targets in different areas of the country:
* An airfield and jet engine factory were targeted in Lutsk, in the north-west
* Explosions also hit airfields at Ivano-Frankivsk, in the south-west, according to Russian defence officials
* In Dnipro, a major stronghold in central eastern Ukraine, one person was reported dead in air strikes
Satellite images taken by a US firm of the infamous 40 mile long military convoy near Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, show it has “largely dispersed and redeployed”. The convoy was last seen near Antonov Airport, north-west of Kyiv, and its movement could signal a renewed push towards the city. The firm that took the photos, Maxar Technologies, said parts of the convoy were in positions in surrounding towns. Other parts are further north, with artillery now in firing positions.
OBSERVATION - Satellite photos are a bit dated, however it appears that the Russian leaders see their equipment safer tactically dispersed than parked 2 to 4 in the open. Harder for Ukraine anti armor assets to take them out.
Various estimates have the Ukraines being supplied with about 17,000 ATGMs - the entire Russian tank inventory is about 12,000 tanks.
Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of resident areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.
Russia forces are still struggling to cross the Irpin River and many forces are trying to bypass that by swinging further west. The 40 mile column has tactically dispersed its vehicles into the surrounding cities and woods to try to minimize losses.
Lighter ATGM equipped Ukraine forces keeping the Russian armor at bay.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Ukraine counter attacks and raids on Russian forces near Chernihiv have opened up additional supply routes to the city. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound nature of the advance was dramatically videos as a Russian armor column (up to regimental size) got caught in a choke point and fell under Ukraine artillery, destroying numerous tanks and forcing the column to retreat. Some rumors that Russian forces had been pulled back towards Sumy and away from Kyiv.
Russian forces were reported to have made advances towards Khariv over the past couple days but uncertain if due to the pull back of hit and run Ukraine radius and counteroffensives. A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians and forces calling for a Ukraine counter attack to relieve the attacks.. The most egregious attack by Russia was the destruction of the woman maternity hospital.
Crimea Front -
Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol are all stalled out. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.
Russian amphibious ships observed off shore of the western Crimea coast between Yevpatoriia and Sevastopol. No indicators of any impending amphibious operations.
Russian army bombed a residential area in Dnipro city. Explosions damaged a shoe factory, one apartment building and a kindergarten
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Little change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operations ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.
Watching closely to see if this ‘pause’ in operations results in a renewed offensive on Kyiv. However, Kyiv has become a fortress and a death trap to Russia armor if they try to enter the urban area. Well, fact is any Russia armor faces heavy losses as it remains road bound and subject to ambushes with heavily ATGM armed Ukraine forces.
The massive attack on civilians in Mariupol will continue. Attacks on civilian targets will continue elsewhere as well.
With at least 20,000 - 24, 000 dead/wounded out of an initial invasion force prepositioned of about 180,000 is about 11 - 13% personnel loss. (PENDING CONFIRMATION) This now includes a third major general - Ukrainian troops claim to have killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andriy Kolesnikov, commander of the Eastern Military District Kolesnikov would be the 3rd general killed in in 15 days of war, after Maj Gen Vitaly Gerasimov & Maj Gen Andrei Sukhovetsky
Short list of significant Russian equipment losses based on a close examination of OSINT information (to screen out duplicates, fakes, etc) by a group called Oryx reflect similar losses.
- Tanks (184, of which destroyed: 64, damaged: 2, abandoned: 35, captured: 83)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (110, of which destroyed: 39, abandoned: 19, captured: 50)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (161, of which destroyed: 72, abandoned: 25, captured: 64)
- Armoured Personnel Carriers (63, of which destroyed: 21, abandoned: 11, captured: 31)
- Vehicles general - 1089, of which: destroyed: 452, damaged: 14, abandoned: 166, captured: 457
In context - 83 to 97 Battalion tactical groups (BTG) were prepositioned for the attack (See post 71) Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles. Approximately 18 BTG equivalents of tanks have been lost, and at least 4 plus BTG of infantry assets. These are likely low ball numbers. Some commentators have remarked that Ukraine has captured more tanks and armor from the Russians than they have lost in combat.
BLUF - Russia is running out of capability to sustain a war short of adding a lot of reinforcements. This would mean transporting and equipping mercenaries like Syrians or pulling forces in from other military districts. Both will take weeks to accomplish. A general call up could boost manpower, but again that would take weeks to effect the combat. This would seem to push Russian planning into a continuation of the block by block destruction of key cities to eliminate resistance at a civilian toll level that soon the west (NATO) may not be able to deny and force greater intervention. Arms and material flow into Ukraine from other nations via Poland may force Putin to try to shut off those supplies, directly or indirectly Two Patriot batteries just deployed to Poland reinforces that concern by NATO. But Putin has no ground forces in position to interdict those supply lines in western Ukriane, so would have to resort to air, missile and cruse missile strikes to deter those lines. If NATO allies are hit, I would see justification for a limited no fly zone over western Ukraine an increased probability.
No evidence that Putin has an exit plan for the mess he is in, and his only options are increasing civilian death and destruction. Hence greater concerns of a NBC related attack - possibly based on a false flag narrative / incident. However, Putin didn’t use a false flag to initiate the war, contrary to expectations, so he may not be tied to a similar scenario and may strike out of the blue.
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Belarus -
Reports of an airstrike on the village of Kopany inside Belarus near the Ukraine border, smoke seen rising.
Ukraine military claims it was done by Russian jets that had taken off from Dubrovytsia airbase as a false flag to bring Belarus into the war
OBSERVATION - Fog of war, not sure who’s planes did what to who at this stage. But Belarus is already up to its neck in supporting Russia and is already considered to be a combatant. Belarus military is one of the least trained forces in eastern Europe and Russia’s been trying to get their ground forces involved for better than a week now, indicating the manpower needs to counter major losses.
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Europe / NATO General -
Sweden joins Denmark and Germany by pledging to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP
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Saudi Arabia -
Houthi announced it targeted ARAMCO refinery in Riyadh using 3 drones, and facilities in Jizan and Abah using six drones.
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Syria -
Islamic State confirmed the death of its leader Abu Ibrahim Al-hashemi Al-Quraishi on Thursday and announced Abu Al-Hassan Al-hashemi Al-Quraishi as its new leader.
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Wuhan virus -
Myocarditis used to be a rare disorder discussed mainly in academic literature, but now it is everywhere. Yet reports of myocarditis and pericarditis are so prevalent now that just in the first eight weeks of 2022, we’re already at 47% of the total VAERS submissions for 2021. There were 24,177 reports of pericarditis/myocarditis submitted to VAERS in 2021. In 2022, just through Feb. 25, there were 11,289 reports, which is nearly half of last year’s total.
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Economy -
biden trying to pin all the economic woes on Russia and its Ukraine invasion.
$1.5 trillion omnibus bill on Wednesday allocating $5.9 billion of fiscal 2022 Legislative Branch funding to boosting the allowance and salaries of their staff by about 21%.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Arrests and deportations of illegal immigrants have dropped by up to 85% under President Joe Biden’s administration compared to previous administrations, according to data released by the Department of Homeland Security.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported this week that it removed 59,011 illegal immigrants between October 2020 and September 2021. For comparison, in 2011 during the Obama administration, around 400,000 illegal immigrants were deported.
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Mayorkas and other officials plan to notify Mexico that Title 42 may end as soon as April. Title 42 is a policy recommendation from CDC in times of public health emergencies.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
US Army 1st ABCT, 3rd Infantry, is manning prepositioned Stocks-2 vehicles and equipment at an ECHA in Grafenwoehr, Germany.
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North Korea -
South Korea’s military has said that North Korea is restoring tunnels at its nuclear test site.
With Yoon Suk-yeol becoming the president-elect of South Korea, it is expected he will do the following:
- Large-scale joint military exercises with the U.S.
- Support the deployment of a second THAAD.
- Prefer the U.S. over China.
- Label the DPRK as the “main enemy”.
Yoon also cited a preemptive strike as an option to deal with the North Korean threat. He also initially endorsed redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea or commencing a “nuclear-sharing deal.”
OBSERVATION - Things are likely to become hotter on the Korean Peninsula over the course of the next year. Kim definitely won’t like this new president.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after over two weeks This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
Russia will treat western arms shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets, deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov says.
“We warned [the US] of consequences from the insane transfer to Ukraine of weapons like mobile anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missiles, and so on.”
OBSERVATION - How far will Russia go to stop the flow of arms - Poland? NATO taking this threat very seriously.
Russia has increased the call for mercenaries to join the fight in Ukraine. So far the biggest numbers are coming from Syria and Chechenia, Both are touted as being experienced urban fighters, suggesting Russia intends to try to push into select cities.
OBSERVATION - As I noted yesterday, Russia seems unable to get additional troops internally - most likely without a general mobilizations and with a civilian population on the edge of anti-patin riots doesn’t what that action. These mercenaries will take a week or so to get integrated into operations and will need to be equipped before entering battle.
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Economic Impacts -
- Bloomberg: Russia loses over $30 billion of its GDP since the start of all-out invasion. Russia’s full-year GDP is expected to slump by about 9% in 2022, Bloomberg reports.
- Biden on Friday called for a removal of normal trade relations with Russia, allowing for new tariffs on Russian imports in yet another effort to ratchet up sanctions over Moscow’s intensifying invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s proposal, which would require congressional approval, would put Moscow’s trade relationship with the U.S. in the same category as North Korea and Cuba.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 20th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . Conditions maintain for muddy off road conditions, but no forecast for any rain which would basically put a nail into any maneuvering off road.
Ukraine’s fixed-wing aircraft fleet is estimated to be 80 percent intact 15 days after Russian invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Ukraine only flying 56 fighter jets 5-10 hours per day given Russian surface-to-air missilery coverage over the country.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces appeared to be regrouping, possibly for a fresh offensive which could target the capital Kyiv in a few days, Britain’s defense ministry said on Friday. Russian ground forces were still making only limited progress, hampered by logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance.
Russia also increased missile attacks on airbases in central and western Ukraine. Many of these strikes were cruse missiles launched by Russian bombers in a stand-off mode. Evidence suggests that Ukraine ADA in the west world inflict severe losses on Russian aircraft if they conduct more direct attacks. The industrial city of Dnipro has been facing even more intensive missile attacks.
Unconfirmed report that staff at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine (biggest nuclear plant in Europe) have been told the plant is now owned by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom
Kyiv front -
Intense bombardment of residental areas continue to create excessive civilian causalities. Towns like Irpin (west of Kyiv) have been turned largely to rubble. Numerous missile attacks on the city and surrounding neighborhoods over night.
Russia forces are still struggling to cross the Irpin River and many forces are trying to bypass that by swinging further west. Lighter ATGM equipped Ukraine forces keeping the Russian armor at bay.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Little change. Threat of Russian advance to Kyiv from this front has been greatly diminished over the past couple of days. The 40 mile column has tactically dispersed its vehicles into the surrounding cities and woods to try to minimize losses. Some evidence that the Russia forces may be repositioning and preparing of a stronger assault on Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound nature of the advance was dramatically videos as a Russian armor column (up to regimental size) got caught in a choke point and fell under Ukraine artillery, destroying numerous tanks and forcing the column to retreat.
Intensive fighting around Sumy reported over night.
Continues Russian bombing/artillery attacks have rubbled the historic center of Khariv. Defenders continue to hold Russian forces at bay and infliction heavy losses.
A push from the southern most portion southward has reached the town Izium. Again, road bound assault that is now endanger of stalling as POL convoys get exposed to Ukraine raids.
Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes from Mar 5 positions. Conditions in Mariupol are becoming desperate with bombing killing hundreds of civilians. Residents of Melitopol call for the release of their mayor, Ivan Fedorov, who was abducted by Russian troops on Friday. Overnight intense artillery hit Mariupol and reports that the eastern portion of the city has fallen under Russian control. The most egregious attack by Russia was the destruction of the woman maternity hospital.
Crimea Front -
Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. Intense artillery at Mykolaiv overnight with the Regional governor Vitaly Kim saying Ukraine has repelled the attack. The city is key to any future assault on Odessa, further down on the Black Sea coast
This action suggests that Russia is contemplating a push towards Odessa This would also suggest a pivot to the west of the Voznesensk push.
Russian amphibious ships observed off shore of the western Crimea coast between Yevpatoriia and Sevastopol. No indicators of any impending amphibious operations.
Russian army bombed a residential area in Dnipro city. Explosions damaged a shoe factory, one apartment building and a kindergarten
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
Little change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass. Russia has essentially no operational ground combat reserves out of his pre invasion staged forces, essentially 100% of ground forces are committed.
With the recent, harder push on Mykolaiv, Russia may be closer to executing an amphibious assault option to encircle Odessa. I would expect that it would wait until a more successful push westward from Mykolaiv before launching. Odessa appears to have fortified itself like Kyiv and will be a very tough nut to crack. The Crimea front has tactically been the most proficient in the war.
Russia will have to act and act soon to cutoff the supplies coming in via Poland. Either boots on the ground or a more substantial air/missile campaign is going to be needed. As Russia’s ground forces are essentially fully committed to existing combat, air/missile interdiction the most likely result. However, this will be largely shooting in the dark, so to speak, a hit and miss because Russia doesn’t have a good OODA loop for quickly processing targetable information. They may be able to strike fixed facilites, but the convoys are another matter. This has the greatest potential for conflict with NATO.
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Belarus -
(Reuters) - The leaders of Russia and Belarus agreed on Friday that Moscow would supply its smaller neighbour with the most up-to-date military equipment in the near future, the official Belarus Belta news agency said
Belarus government has said it will send five battalion tactical groups to the border with Ukraine to replace the troops currently stationed there. It denies that this is part of preparations for entry into the war
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Europe / NATO General -
The EU pledges to double military aid to Ukraine. This means an additional 500 million euros in military aid. No word on the kind of weaponry that it would finance
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Israel -
A top Ukrainian adviser and an Israeli official on Saturday pushed back against a media report suggesting Israel tried to nudge Ukraine into caving to Russian demands during talks. A report carried by Israel’s Walla news, The Jerusalem Post and US news site Axios had suggested, citing an unidentified Ukrainian official, that Bennett had urged Ukraine to give in to Russia.
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