Replies

No report yesterday - OBE. Sorry.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS

US convoy -
Circling around the DC beltway

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Wuhan virus -

Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine has dropped significantly, and states are scrambling to use up their stockpiles of vaccines before they expire. Plus, more of today’s COVID news.

HHS revealed that it purchased advertising from major news networks including ABC, CBS, and NBC, as well as cable TV news stations Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC, legacy media publications including the New York Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post, digital media companies like BuzzFeed News and Newsmax, and hundreds of local newspapers and TV stations. These outlets were collectively responsible for publishing countless articles and video segments regarding the vaccine that were nearly uniformly positive about the vaccine in terms of both its efficacy and safety.
The safety and efficiency information has since been shown to be false advertising and misinformation.
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Economy -

Oil prices surged to a 13-year high on Sunday as U.S. officials signaled an openness to a ban on Russian oil imports amid Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate Crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose 9.5% to $126.64 a barrel as of 7:00 PM on Sunday evening. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, shot up 12% to $130.98 a barrel. WTI hit an all-time high of $147.27 and Brent hit $147.50 in July 2008.
“We consider $125 per barrel, our near-term forecast for Brent crude oil, as a soft cap for prices, although prices could rise even higher should disruptions worsen or continue for a longer period,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. A prolonged war could see Brent moving above the $150 per barrel mark, he said. Analysts at Bank of America said if most of Russia’s oil exports were cut off, there could be a 5 million barrel per day (bpd) or larger shortfall, pushing prices as high as $200.

The average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline jumped 9 cents at domestic service stations Friday to $3.84, according to AAA, after increasing by 7 cents Thursday. A week ago, drivers paid 26 cents less on average per gallon.
NOTE - this increase doesn’t include overnight jump in crude prices, which will soon hit us. BTW in my corner of the Redoubt, prices jumped about 35 cent/gallon last week.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its report on worldwide food prices for February, and prices hit a record high last month. The February FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) reached a new high of 140.7 points, which reflects an increase of 3.9% over January and a whopping 20.7% over this time last year.

More food concerns as the war in Ukraine continues on. Both Russia and Ukraine are big exporters of wheat and corn. War and sanctions looking to cut significantly into both crops. Ukraine supplies the EU with just under 60% of its corn and nearly half of a key component in the grains needed to feed livestock.
The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
USDA is reporting that a whopping 71 percent of all winter wheat in the United States has been affected by drought

OBSERVATION - Prices for goods and services are going to skyrocket as fuel price hikes, lack of fertilizer, and poor crop yields hit the market. Critical shortages becoming more apparent - for example infant formula shortages equaling empty shelves (I am particularly sensitive about this area, expecting new grand boby next month - had foresight to build .up about 9 months worth of formula in the pantry).

Global famine pressures are increasing.
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Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

A group of Black Lives Matter and Antifa rioters were convicted on federal charges after attempting to frame the Proud Boys for a series of vandalism and arson attacks the far-left extremists carried out on Atlanta police vehicles and United States Postal Service property during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.

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Domestic Terror -

At approximately 9 p.m. on Sunday night, a vehicle drove through a security checkpoint at Joint Base Andrews. One person is in custody, while Security Forces are still searching for the second person.
According to an official statement on JBA’s Facebook, the intruders failed to adhere to commands of security personnel at the Main Gate. Security Forces then deployed the barriers and stopped the vehicle. Both people fled the vehicle, one was apprehended, and the other remains at large. The base confirms that the person in custody had a weapon, but no shots were fired.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Truman CSG has been moved into the Aegean Sea, closer to the Ukraine theater. Probably supporting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
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China -

China is raising its defense spending in 2022 by 7.1% to $229 billion, up from a 6.8% increase the year before.
Saturday’s announcement marks a continuation of the robust spending that has given China an increasingly powerful military that is challenging the U.S. armed forces’ dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
OBSERVATION - This will further strain China’s economy which is already on the edge of a recession.

The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 12 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT - Sources are saying that Russia is trying to hire mercenaries out of Syria with urban fighting experience to fight in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - I seriously doubt that Putin can recruit enough of these fighters to make any difference. Syrians are wrapped up in their own conflict and the question would be why would they want to go elsewhere to fight. Plus they’d need thousand to make any real difference and Russian equipment and logistical support (which is seriously lacking in the current situation).

Observers questioning on how deep are Putin’s pockets to continue the operation. There are reports that Russia has started procuring (commandeering ?) civilian trucks to haul supplies to replace those destroyed by Ukraine forces.

Israel’s Bennett spent 3 hours negating with Putin this weekend. No significant results of the talks have been released.

Russia announced new “humanitarian corridors” Monday to transport Ukrainians trapped under its bombardment — to Russia and its ally Belarus, A spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the move “completely immoral,” saying Russia was trying to “use people’s suffering to create a television picture.”

New round of talks between Russia and Ukraine to start shortly in Belarus - aide to head of Presidential office of Ukraine Podolyak. Just ahead of the meeting, the Kremlin issued a list of demands to be accomplished if Ukraine wants the Russian invasion to be halted immediately. These includes, according to the Kremlin spokesman, the recognition of Crimea as part of sovereign Russian territory, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. This is close to the demands Russia made prior to the invasion and have been rejected by Ukraine.

Russian artillery fire cancelled several evacuation of civilians over the weekend - in violation of agreed ceasefires .

Protests continue across Russia with authorities arresting over 13,000 anti-war protesters as its crackdown on dissidents within the country continues.

Putin has threatened any nation supplying military aid to Ukraine as participants of the conflict.

Economic hits continue to increase. -

Several Russian banks said on Sunday they would soon start issuing cards using the Chinese UnionPay card operator’s system coupled with Russia’s own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard said they were suspending operations in Russia. The move could allow Russians to make some payments overseas, with UnionPay operating in 180 countries and regions.

Russia’s currency sank to a record low Monday as traders struggled to get access to the ruble. The ruble fell to 137 to a dollar, a decline of more than 10% from Friday’s close, as traders say that the ability to buy and sell the Russian currency has become more limited as fewer banks want to settle transactions against it in the offshore market. Russian stock markets continued to be closed as well.

Increased acceptance of the concept of sanctions agains Russian oil production / sales across US and EU. This has caused oil prices to spike (See Economy above).

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s .
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are going to continue to be very soft/ muddy. Waxing crescent moon.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Persistent Russian attacks on residents areas causing civilian causalities to rise sharply, creating new calls for stricter sanctions.

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas of Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have started to stall as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority. Talks between Poland and the US on freeing up Su 25 aircraft to give to Ukraine in exchange for new F16s is stalling.

Ukraine forces still very successful in armor ambushes using the abundant ATGMs and other anti armor munitions. Logistic columns particularly vulnerable to interdiction. Local counterattacks by Ukraine forces have been successful in several locations.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF romance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Refugee conditions are increasing, with about 1.7 million currently in Eastern Europe and Russia hampering any humanitarian passages.

Kyiv front -
Predominantly bombardment of resident areas creating excessive civilian causalities. . Russia tries to continue to push around the western side in an attempt to encircle Kyiv, but are not succeeding and facing heavy losses.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, but attempts to push southward towards Kyiv still stalled.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy are stalled out. Likely out ran their supplies. Assault is road bound. Many maps show the broad area between the road advances under Russian control but no evidence of real control. (This is why I currently favor the ‘Wiki map and the link below) Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating at least two cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol show evidence of having stalled. Ukraine counter attack reportedly regained the airport at Mykolaiv, further slowing the Russian push towards Zaporizhzhia.

Video also emerged which appeared to show Ukrainian defense forces based in Odessa, the country’s largest port, exchanging fire with ships overnight. The Ukrainians are claiming they hit a Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship Vasily Bykov last night with MLRS fire. These Project 22160 ships are brand new and only have a few currently in service.

US intelligence shows no signs of an amphibious assault against the Odessa region any time soon. Russia did a generally unopposed amphibious operation against Mariupol last week. Odessa is a completely different matter. Odessa has had over two weeks to prepare for an amphibious operation and any Russian operation would be heavily contested. Russian navy has at least six large amphibious vessels (the ones that came out the Baltic Sea area over a month ago), however they unload out the bow of the ship - a well placed and timed Ukraine ATGM could block the unload. Russian AF support would face stiff ADA as well. Given the poor coordination of Russian military branches, total lack of a ground push from Crimea to support the assault and the high losses that would be expected may have Russian military leaders hesitant at this stage.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Russia’s ceasefire offer begrudgingly acknowledges its failure in this war. However, its gonna take a lot more Russia losses of men and material before they make any serious concessions - perhaps even replacement of Putin. I expect intensive bombing or civilian targets to continue and intensify. Some commentators calling the lack of Russian progress a ‘pause’ to resupply and the big push is about to come. I don’t agree with that assessment. Russia has committed virtually all of its pre positioned invasion forces into the battle - there are no reserves in place to draw upon in a timely manner to carry forward the attack. Forces are road bound and logistics extremely vulnerable to interdiction.

More Russian armor taken out, more Russian aircraft to be shot down.

Military resupply continues to pour in to Poland to transshipped into Ukraine. I expect more efforts to free up jets in the eastern european forces but not in a timely manner. I have increasing concerns as Putins’ war continues to bog down he may try to strike at resupply convoy as well as refugee convoys. Either would greatly increase the chance of NATO direct action.

I also expect to see this week the effects of sanctions to really start to take a bigger bite out of the Russian economy and pocket books. This in turn will likely cause more and larger protests to erupt. I also wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the week Russian oil being at least partially blocked on global markets.
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Belarus -

People are still trying to figure out what is going on with Belarus involvement in the ground assault in Ukraine. After reports that they were mobilizing forces to join the battle, other RUMINT has been out there citing rebellion, resignations and desertions from the Belarus military.
From the UK Daily Mail - The deputy minister of defence for Belarus has reportedly submitted his resignation and claimed he cannot support the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. Major General Viktor Gulevich, who is also the chief of the general staff, argued that Belarusian military unit personnel refused to take part in hostilities and that the Armed Forces of Belarus could not complete a single battalion group.
Bottom line is, no additional ground forces to assist Russia at this time.
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Poland -

Taken in nearly 1 million refugees and serving a the hub for weapons resupply efforts.
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Middle East / N. Africa General -

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched at least one missile into the busy waters of Red Sea over the weekend, the U.S. Navy said Monday

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Israel -
See Syrian airstrike below

PM Bennett face to face talks with Putin, no real discussion on results.

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Syria -

Israeli airstrike in Damascus area yesterday targeting the standard Hezbollah munitions depot.
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Venezuela -

US talking to Venezuela on oil production.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Globalists trying to twist the current fuel price explosion into a means to force ‘green ‘ switch over. Global economic crisis is also being evaluated to provide a ‘how’ to facilitate the ‘great reset’. They are looking at this as the ‘perfect storm’.

Oil price blowout and its ripple effect on the economies of the world may well kick the legs out from under the global economy. The key thins is the GGR ready to step in to take control of the economy - yet? I suspect that the Ukraine war has to be brought to a conclusion so that the uncontrolled economic shockwaves can be made ‘manageable’ by the GGR.

OBSERVATION - Consider the picture of the emperor (GGR) observing the fight between Vader and Skywalker . . . . .
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Economy -

*** ALERT *** Biden administration to impose a ban on US imports of Russian oil, LNG, and coal in an announcement scheduled for 10:45am

Meanwhile nation average gas prices hits $4.17/gal. Oil traders are speculating on $200/barrel oil by the end of the month. Russia threatening $300/barrel

Ukraine war has disrupted US and global markets already struggling in a post wuhan environments. Gold is now above $2000 and silver above $26 - with no foreseen ceiling. Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange briefly jumped to a record high above $100,000 a metric ton, before paring gains.

US markets now assessed as being in correct territory with the likelihood of a full blown recession looming hard and fast.

During a speech on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that “Forecasters uniformly agree that [economic] growth over the next several decades will be sluggish.” No discussion on Ukrianan war impacts to this forecast.

Last week, Russia’s trade and industry ministry recommended fertilizer producers temporarily halt exports. The proposed suspension is another signal that Western sanctions will impact global food prices. Russia produces more than 50 million tonnes of fertilizers per year, making up 13% of the total global supply.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - The gasoline crisis threatens the economy like no other threat in my lifetime IMHO because it affects ALL other sectors of the economy in one way or another. This makes any rate hikes by the Fed even more dicer as a wrong move could push us past a recession into a full blown depression.
My advice is stock up now on needs you can forecast - both as a price savings, but availability issue. The window is closing and this summer could be brutal. $200/barrel oil will essentially double current gasoline prices - keep that in mind for food, and other products.
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Invasion of Illegals -

What to say - more of the same crap.
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Biden watch -

Announcement of oil bans due 1045 today.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Buried under the other news is the threat from food shortages across the country. This is getting worse and with skyrocketing fuel and other prices people are going to be hard pressed and the potential for violent actions increase.

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Domestic Terror -

A Guantanamo Bay detainee dubbed the “20th hijacker of 9/11” has been repatriated by the Biden administration to Saudi Arabia, where the al-Quaeda-trained would-be terrorist will receive treatment at a psychiatric facility.

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North Korea -

(Reuters) – North Korea’s missile launches could be groundwork for a return to intercontinental ballistic missile and nuclear bomb tests this year for the first time since 2017, the U.S. Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI) said in its annual Worldwide Threat Assessment released on Monday.
On Tuesday, U.S.-based analysts said commercial satellite imagery shows construction at North Korea’s nuclear testing site for the first time since it was closed in 2018.
International experts have also reported that North Korea’s main nuclear reactor facility at Yongbyon appears to be in full swing, potentially creating additional fuel for nuclear weapons.

OBSERVATIONS - This was coming in spite of the Ukraine war. Its clear to Kim that biden is a do nothing and that they can proceed with their plans. If they resume nuclear tests, Japan may be pushed into a move to go nuclear as well. Online NK tests under 0bama, so far no demands to raise sanctions, etc have been made (or if they have, they’ve been drown out by Ukraine).

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 13 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Economic hits continue to increase. -

More sanctions going on line against the ruling elite of Russia from across the world.
Ruble is worth something in the neighborhood of one-half of a penny.
Top officials in the Congress reached an agreement Monday on legislation that would ban Russian oil imports to the U.S. and end Russia’s permanent normal trade relation status in response to the intensifying war in Ukraine, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
Bloomberg: The odds of a Russian default now around 80%

Protests continue across Russia against the war. Thousand have been arrested.

The U.S. is among 48 nations whose governments have committed “unfriendly actions” against Russia, the Kremlin says. Russian citizens, companies and government bodies that owe money to those countries can pay debts in rubles, the decree says.

Shell says it will immediately stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil following criticism
The Russian deputy PM has warned that Moscow could retaliate against European sanctions by cutting off natural gas to the bloc

Russia warned that oil prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine as peace talks on Monday made little progress.

Russia announced that no later than March 11, all internet traffic must use domestic “domain name systems” (DNS). This would effectively remove Russia from the global internet as only “.ru” connections would be made.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s . In recent days Ukraine has seen snowfall across parts of the country. A cold snap, is now forces for midweek. Cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv will experience “biting windchill” of -13C to -20C at times during the next few days.
OBSERVATION - This cold snap may firm up off road movement a little, but they shouldn’t count on it. More likely it will stress Russian troops who are in the open while Ukraine defenders are in warm positions. May result in decreased combat operations on the ground as well as the air.

RUNINT -
Not quite RUMINT but getting accurate loss figures is nearly impossible in this war, but there have been some analysts who’ve painstakingly sorted through the data to come up with some reasonable estimates since the start o the war.
- Russian losses- 902 vehicles, including 143 tanks and 272 A/IFVs
- Ukrainian losses- 272 vehicles, including 46 tanks and 89 A/IFVs

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Russian attacks on civilian residential areas continued at a high rate, some saying it increased overnight. The on again / off again ceasefires are further designed by Russia to instill more fear in the civilian population of hold out cities.

Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate claims that the 1st Deputy Commander and Chief of Staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov was killed in Kharkiv. This claim has been validated. this would mean the 41st CAA has lost two Deputy Commanders. 41 CAA is place by many attacking as part of the northern front . The Kharkiv sector is under the zone by another CAA.
OBSERVATION - Loss of two major flag officers, along with a plethora of other senior officers within a 15 day period is unreal and only serves to further constipate Russian operations.

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas of Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have stalled as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority. Talks between Poland and the US on freeing up Su 25 aircraft to give to Ukraine in exchange for new F16s is getting no where.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF dominance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Kyiv front -
Predominantly bombardment of resident areas creating excessive civilian causalities. . A lot of Russian air activity over the last 24 hrs, with their presence being challenged by ADA and Ukraine AF - with a degree of success. Russia tries to continue to push around the western side in an attempt to encircle Kyiv, but are not succeeding and facing heavy losses.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, but attempts to push southward towards Kyiv still stalled. Ukrainian counter offensive underway having some success pushing Russian forces away from Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy still in play. The road bound finger from Sumy may have had the one from Konotop join it and now may have pushed as far as the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. However, the supply line is extremely stretched and the advance is road bound - making sustaining supplies for the attack very sketchy at best to sustain any attack into the city. Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes being 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol. No real push yet to try to encircle Odessa or link up with Russian forces in the Transnestra region of Moldova.
The Russian naval vessel hit the other day by Ukraine artillery is believed to be one of the vessels that attacked Snake Island, home of the now infamous reply by island defenders.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

CEASE FIRE -
People are fleeing the north-eastern city of Sumy, and Irpin, near Kyiv, after ceasefires were agreed to allow civilians to escape. However, Ukrainian officials say Russia is shelling an evacuation route from the besieged southern city of Mariupol Russian forces started shelling the humanitarian corridor from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol. 8 trucks + 30 buses were ready to deliver humanitarian aid to Mariupol and to evac civilians to Zaporizhzhia. Third time Russian forces have violated a humanitarian cease fire and attacked civilians. This is just another way Russia is trying to install fear into the civilians and demoralize their support against Russia.

OUTLOOK -

There really isn’t much change in outlook. I expect Russia to continue the brutal and indiscriminate bombing of residential and other civilian targets to force the submission of the population while its military continues to be bogged down both by losses of combat forces made worse by continuing logistical morass.

The gains made in the south by Russian forces will be slowed down by logistics as Ukraine forces start popping up to strike them.

Still no evidence of an impending amphibious assault on the Odessa region.

Russian AF will still be essentially awol in support of combat operations, but active bombing residential areas.

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Poland -

Poland’s ambassador to the United States told Fox News he believes Russia has military ambitions beyond Ukraine and called for economic sanctions to potentially last for decades against the Putin regime.

“I believe Ukraine is not the last item on Mr. Putin’s menu,” said Ambassador Marek Magierowski, who spoke with Fox News from the Polish Embassy in Washington, D.C.

“We have to be ready and determined to uphold the sanctions. Perhaps even for a decade or for 15 years or for 20 years, in order to see to the real effects,” Magierowski said.

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Europe / NATO General -

EU is set to propose new round of sanctions that would target wealthy Russians and their family, and 100+ members of the upper house of the Russian Parliament who have voted in favor of measures backing the war in Ukraine.
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Iran -

Iran’s IRGC sends Noor 2 satellite into orbit. The satellite, Iran’s second, is orbiting the Earth at a distance of around 500 kilometers and was launched from the IRGC space base in Shahrud.
OBSERVATION - This is a step in Iran’s goal of having a global capability to deliver a nuclear device. Current technology has Iran limited to the Middle East and Europe. Iran needs to create/test a nuclear device then miniaturize the components enough to create a warhead.
These are well within Iran’s capability as their military development program has matured and they are second only to China in the ability to reverse engineer technology.

Unconfirmed report that the US to lift sanctions from Iran as a part of a new nuclear treaty.

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