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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; azishot; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; ...

Back at it, feeling a little better
________________________________

Wuhan virus -

Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine has dropped significantly, and states are scrambling to use up their stockpiles of vaccines before they expire. Plus, more of today’s COVID news.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

A group of Black Lives Matter and Antifa rioters were convicted on federal charges after attempting to frame the Proud Boys for a series of vandalism and arson attacks the far-left extremists carried out on Atlanta police vehicles and United States Postal Service property during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Truman CSG has been moved into the Aegean Sea, closer to the Ukraine theater. Probably supporting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
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China -

China continues to straddle the fence over the Ukraine war, playing both ends against the middle. However, I think they may be set back both on the poor performance of the Russian military and the vast economic counter that hit.

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North Korea -

NK popped off another rocket yesterday, same general flight characteristics as the previous one.

Some observers are raising the anticipation level of a much bigger event by NK, even the possibility of an another nuclear test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 10 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 95% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine,

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Videos out yesterday show a number of trains loaded armor vehicles at Khabarovsk. Load out identified BMP-2, MTLV and ZSU23/4 vehicles Khabarovskis near the Pacific and near the border with China. This would be the Far East Military District. It will take a couple weeks to get to the Ukraine theatre. No word if there will be troops accompanying the equipment.’
OBSERVATION - This is a sign that the war is NOT going well for Putin. Observers have already noted that the maintenance issues on the equipment currently in combat is very poor and a cause of a lot of losses in addition to the mud, ambushes and running out of gas. And these were their active duty units. This equipment, coming out of storage at least could start up, and get loaded, however the quality of maintenance is highly questionable. That said, suggests a level of desperation.

RUMINT - Reports of Kazakhstan mobilizing and loading up armor on to trains. This could be a misinterpretation of the report above. Kazakhstan has already rejected a call by Russia to join the war.

********
PM Naftali Bennett has been in talks in the Kremlin with Russian Pres Vladimir Putin for about two and a half hours.

President Vladimir Putin likened Western sanctions on Russia to a “declaration of war” and threatened Ukraine with loss of its statehood if its leaders continued to resist his military invasion.
OBSERVATION - Some consider this just tough talk for propaganda purposes. OTOH Putin’s trend has been to double and triple down. Sanctions are going to be hurting very very soon, the clock is ticking.

Lavrov: “Our delegation expects Ukrainians to respond to our demands to disarm Ukraine and recognize Crimea as Russian territory”

The US military has established channels to communicate directly with the Russian military as a way to deconflict tactical movements around Ukraine

Economic hits continue to increase. -

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia’s economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.

More and more companies are cutting ties to Russian firms and shutting down businesses.

The Russian stock market was closed all week and the value of a ruble remains below one US cent. Moody’s Investor Service today dropped its credit rating of Russian debt to junk status. economist Steve Hanke, who specializes in measuring real inflation rates, estimated Russia’s annual inflation rate has already hit 61 percent, and this was before the war. Expected to get much worse.

Blinken says ‘no strategic interest’ in Russia energy sanctions, resists calls for oil import ban
Secretary of State Antony Blinken downplayed the impact that energy sanctions on Russia would have, arguing any such sanctions would hurt America and its allies more than they would Moscow. This is flying in the face of increasing congressional calls for cutting off imports.

Inspire of new laws and crackdowns - protests against the war continue through out Russia.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

While absorbing brutal and indiscriminate artillery barrages and air strikes, Ukraine defenses remain stable in the north and east. Most likely lead by airborne forces, Russia continue to make gains in the south, expanding its successes connecting with separatist forces near Mariupo and capturing bridges and crossing the Dniper at Kherson.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have announced that they have killed Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk Andrey Sukhovetskiy. While sick yesterday, Ukraine announced that the got another division and regimental commander.

It has been a bad 48 hours for the Russian AF as losses have increased significantly. Russian Air Force losses over Ukraine in the past 48 hours:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft
- 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 3 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

The main reason for the losses are the abundance of MANPAD systems combined with the switch to using ‘dummy’ bombs, which require lower flight paths to drop accurately. Some argument as to why Russia ceased its use of guided bombs, some thinking they simply ran out. I think that since the bombing has switched to targeting residential apartments and areas there is no need for ‘precision’. My understanding is that Russians pilots are poorly practiced in this kind of bombing - that under counter fire and PGMs are dropped from a much higher (and safer) altitude. One of the pilots was captured and was identified as having experience in Syria based on a photo of pilot with Assad.

Expect to see more Mi-24/35 attack helicopter losses. Russia seems to be putting more of them as cover for the POL convoys and only in ones and twos. Low, slow and very vulnerable.

Not a good day for the ground pounders either, relatively confirmed report that in the Kiev region, near Severinovka, the Russian occupation forces came into battle with ... the Russian occupation forces. As a result, thanks to “friendly fire”, 9 tanks and 4 armored personnel carriers were destroyed.

Russia agreed to a cease fire to allow non combatants to leave Mariupol and eastern town of Volnovakha. Evacuation have just been canceled for Mariupol by local authorities saying Russia not observing ceasefire. In Irpin, Russian shelling damaged an evacuation train and the tracks.

Russian forces in Kherson and Meliopol have faced protests by citizens that have force them to pull back from some of their positions in the city.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy.
Current assessment is that the the lead tip of this column are completely out of fuel and food by this time. With road congestion and the death mud (see earlier post) if one goes off the pavement, further movement is doubtful. Additionally along the Irpin River, Ukraine opened up the gates to a dam, flooding a vast area down stream, further limited any potential movements. Russian forces having to swing farther to the west in an attempt to encircle Kyiv from the west and south. Outlying towns being reduced to rubble.
The town of Irpin has come under increased pressure by Russian forces pushing to Kyiv and has been hit hard by the indiscriminate bombing by Russia forces. In Irpin, Russian shelling damaged an evacuation train and the tracks after an agreement to allow non-combatants to leave.

Limited offensive actions out of Kyiv have opened up a lot of area to the south and southwest, permitting resupply of ATGM and MANPADS was well as other supplies.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Situation largely unchanged from yesterday. Russians continue to attack Chernihiv with heavy artillery and bombing. The push to the southeast along a Kozelets’-Bobrovytsia-Makiivka axis - very possibly in an attempt to connect with similar thin pushes from the north eastern front forces pushing from Konotop and Sumy, appears to have its lead elements cut off and are currently ‘surrounded’ with no logistics chain.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Armor push from Konotop and Sumy show little progress and likely stalled due to logistics. May be seeing an effort to join a push form the Northern front - see above. Konotop may or may not be surrounded but has been under intensive artillery/rocket attacks on residential areas. Khariv and Sumy also suffering under massive bombing and artillery attacks, striking residential neighborhoods.

Eastern Front -
Separatist/Russian forces continue to pressure Mariupol and have continued attacking in spite of a cease fire. Lines are pretty static along the old LOC.

Crimea Front -
By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. The nuclear plant at Enerhodar is under Russian control. Forces have now pushed to Mykolaiv to the northwest and some elements have gone as far as Voznesensk (site of another nuclear plant). The Voznesensk attack was supported intially by an air assault attack. This axis of advance seems more focused at trying to reach northward to Kyiv rather than sealing off Odessa. Additional pushes eastward to expand the land bridge with the separatist controlled Dombass region.
No move to encircle Odessa which makes me think the emphasis now is a long march northward to try to cut off the eastern half of the nation and pressure the defense of Kyiv. No naval movements to suggest an immanent amphibious operation either.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Some have estimated that Russia had planned on no more than 10 days to complete the invasion and subdue Ukraine. We are at that 10 day mark. Russia has called on ‘friends’ for help and gotten none, not even Belarus (apart from basing Russian aircraft and missile launches). Most analysts see increasingly brutal attacks on civilians versus military targets. As they do so, it is galvanizing international support for Ukraine and further isolating Russia economically and politically.

Russia has a large army, on the books, but if the quality is the same as its active forces, their insertion into the combat will not do much to sway the fight. Their training and equipment status is most likely far below the level of the active duty units already in the fight.

I expect more of a push northward by the Crimean forces (who IMHO were the best trained and equipped ) towards Voznesensk and the nuclear power plant just beyond. Pre war positioning and heavy initial losses do not suggest that they can sustain a northward assault without being seriously over extended and subject to having the POL chain interdicted as the other fronts. This road bound assault does not support a general encirclement of Odessa, thought by many to the next target of Russian southern operations.

Russian airpower will continue to be relatively impotent in swaying the fight - except to bomb residential areas. Urkraine air power, much of which is thought to be relatively intact and in the mostly untouched western Ukraine, may continue to assert itself. The combination of TB2 drones taking out Russian ADA capabilities will increase the chances Ukraine AF will strike as Russian troops have far fewer MANPAD systems than the Ukrainians apparent have and know how to use.

A “No Fly” zone is still out of the picture barring a Russian atrocity such as using MOAB/FOAB or even tactical nukes. Half of Ukraine is mostly uncontested and resupply and reinforcements can come in from that region to the war zones in the east. If Russian AF attempts to contest those resupply operations, it may raise the risk of combat with the substantial CAP flying over Poland and Baltics.

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Belarus -

With all the rumors, no Belarus combat forces are known to be in Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -

French Defense Minister: The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will take up a position in the Mediterranean for reconnaissance missions over the Baltic countries

Five Russian ships including frigates are turning elsewhere for replenishment after being denied entry into Limassol of Republic of Cyprus, with the island’s foreign ministry scrapping a previous agreement citing the ongoing war in Ukraine.

UNSC meeting today on Russia’s attack on Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Sweden condemns the Russian military aggression against Ukraine & demands that all parties fully comply with their obligations under int’l humanitarian law to spare the civilian population

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164 posted on 03/05/2022 11:49:36 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; ...

No report yesterday - OBE. Sorry.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS

US convoy -
Circling around the DC beltway

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Wuhan virus -

Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine has dropped significantly, and states are scrambling to use up their stockpiles of vaccines before they expire. Plus, more of today’s COVID news.

HHS revealed that it purchased advertising from major news networks including ABC, CBS, and NBC, as well as cable TV news stations Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC, legacy media publications including the New York Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post, digital media companies like BuzzFeed News and Newsmax, and hundreds of local newspapers and TV stations. These outlets were collectively responsible for publishing countless articles and video segments regarding the vaccine that were nearly uniformly positive about the vaccine in terms of both its efficacy and safety.
The safety and efficiency information has since been shown to be false advertising and misinformation.
_____________________________

Economy -

Oil prices surged to a 13-year high on Sunday as U.S. officials signaled an openness to a ban on Russian oil imports amid Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate Crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose 9.5% to $126.64 a barrel as of 7:00 PM on Sunday evening. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, shot up 12% to $130.98 a barrel. WTI hit an all-time high of $147.27 and Brent hit $147.50 in July 2008.
“We consider $125 per barrel, our near-term forecast for Brent crude oil, as a soft cap for prices, although prices could rise even higher should disruptions worsen or continue for a longer period,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. A prolonged war could see Brent moving above the $150 per barrel mark, he said. Analysts at Bank of America said if most of Russia’s oil exports were cut off, there could be a 5 million barrel per day (bpd) or larger shortfall, pushing prices as high as $200.

The average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline jumped 9 cents at domestic service stations Friday to $3.84, according to AAA, after increasing by 7 cents Thursday. A week ago, drivers paid 26 cents less on average per gallon.
NOTE - this increase doesn’t include overnight jump in crude prices, which will soon hit us. BTW in my corner of the Redoubt, prices jumped about 35 cent/gallon last week.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its report on worldwide food prices for February, and prices hit a record high last month. The February FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) reached a new high of 140.7 points, which reflects an increase of 3.9% over January and a whopping 20.7% over this time last year.

More food concerns as the war in Ukraine continues on. Both Russia and Ukraine are big exporters of wheat and corn. War and sanctions looking to cut significantly into both crops. Ukraine supplies the EU with just under 60% of its corn and nearly half of a key component in the grains needed to feed livestock.
The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
USDA is reporting that a whopping 71 percent of all winter wheat in the United States has been affected by drought

OBSERVATION - Prices for goods and services are going to skyrocket as fuel price hikes, lack of fertilizer, and poor crop yields hit the market. Critical shortages becoming more apparent - for example infant formula shortages equaling empty shelves (I am particularly sensitive about this area, expecting new grand boby next month - had foresight to build .up about 9 months worth of formula in the pantry).

Global famine pressures are increasing.
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Invasion of Illegals -

/What to say - more of the same crap.
______________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

A group of Black Lives Matter and Antifa rioters were convicted on federal charges after attempting to frame the Proud Boys for a series of vandalism and arson attacks the far-left extremists carried out on Atlanta police vehicles and United States Postal Service property during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.

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Domestic Terror -

At approximately 9 p.m. on Sunday night, a vehicle drove through a security checkpoint at Joint Base Andrews. One person is in custody, while Security Forces are still searching for the second person.
According to an official statement on JBA’s Facebook, the intruders failed to adhere to commands of security personnel at the Main Gate. Security Forces then deployed the barriers and stopped the vehicle. Both people fled the vehicle, one was apprehended, and the other remains at large. The base confirms that the person in custody had a weapon, but no shots were fired.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Truman CSG has been moved into the Aegean Sea, closer to the Ukraine theater. Probably supporting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
_________________________________

China -

China is raising its defense spending in 2022 by 7.1% to $229 billion, up from a 6.8% increase the year before.
Saturday’s announcement marks a continuation of the robust spending that has given China an increasingly powerful military that is challenging the U.S. armed forces’ dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
OBSERVATION - This will further strain China’s economy which is already on the edge of a recession.

The condition of China’s winter wheat crop could be the “worst in history”, the agriculture minister said on Saturday, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer.
____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 12 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 100% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, There are no more reserves in theater for Russian forces to draw upon.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

RUMINT - Sources are saying that Russia is trying to hire mercenaries out of Syria with urban fighting experience to fight in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - I seriously doubt that Putin can recruit enough of these fighters to make any difference. Syrians are wrapped up in their own conflict and the question would be why would they want to go elsewhere to fight. Plus they’d need thousand to make any real difference and Russian equipment and logistical support (which is seriously lacking in the current situation).

Observers questioning on how deep are Putin’s pockets to continue the operation. There are reports that Russia has started procuring (commandeering ?) civilian trucks to haul supplies to replace those destroyed by Ukraine forces.

Israel’s Bennett spent 3 hours negating with Putin this weekend. No significant results of the talks have been released.

Russia announced new “humanitarian corridors” Monday to transport Ukrainians trapped under its bombardment — to Russia and its ally Belarus, A spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the move “completely immoral,” saying Russia was trying to “use people’s suffering to create a television picture.”

New round of talks between Russia and Ukraine to start shortly in Belarus - aide to head of Presidential office of Ukraine Podolyak. Just ahead of the meeting, the Kremlin issued a list of demands to be accomplished if Ukraine wants the Russian invasion to be halted immediately. These includes, according to the Kremlin spokesman, the recognition of Crimea as part of sovereign Russian territory, as well as Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. This is close to the demands Russia made prior to the invasion and have been rejected by Ukraine.

Russian artillery fire cancelled several evacuation of civilians over the weekend - in violation of agreed ceasefires .

Protests continue across Russia with authorities arresting over 13,000 anti-war protesters as its crackdown on dissidents within the country continues.

Putin has threatened any nation supplying military aid to Ukraine as participants of the conflict.

Economic hits continue to increase. -

Several Russian banks said on Sunday they would soon start issuing cards using the Chinese UnionPay card operator’s system coupled with Russia’s own Mir network, after Visa and MasterCard said they were suspending operations in Russia. The move could allow Russians to make some payments overseas, with UnionPay operating in 180 countries and regions.

Russia’s currency sank to a record low Monday as traders struggled to get access to the ruble. The ruble fell to 137 to a dollar, a decline of more than 10% from Friday’s close, as traders say that the ability to buy and sell the Russian currency has become more limited as fewer banks want to settle transactions against it in the offshore market. Russian stock markets continued to be closed as well.

Increased acceptance of the concept of sanctions agains Russian oil production / sales across US and EU. This has caused oil prices to spike (See Economy above).

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 15th show temperatures in the mid 30’s .
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are going to continue to be very soft/ muddy. Waxing crescent moon.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Persistent Russian attacks on residents areas causing civilian causalities to rise sharply, creating new calls for stricter sanctions.

Facing boring repetition - but the Russian offensive remains essentially stalled. Russia has maintained heavy bombardments of resident areas of Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. The Crimea front advancements have started to stall as logistics are over stretched. Russia still hasn’t established air superiority. Talks between Poland and the US on freeing up Su 25 aircraft to give to Ukraine in exchange for new F16s is stalling.

Ukraine forces still very successful in armor ambushes using the abundant ATGMs and other anti armor munitions. Logistic columns particularly vulnerable to interdiction. Local counterattacks by Ukraine forces have been successful in several locations.

Also successful are Ukraine anti-air defenses that are costing numerous Russian aircraft and copters. Absence of Russian AF romance has permitted Ukraine AF ground attacks on Russian advancements.

Refugee conditions are increasing, with about 1.7 million currently in Eastern Europe and Russia hampering any humanitarian passages.

Kyiv front -
Predominantly bombardment of resident areas creating excessive civilian causalities. . Russia tries to continue to push around the western side in an attempt to encircle Kyiv, but are not succeeding and facing heavy losses.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Heavy artillery attacks on Chernihiv, but attempts to push southward towards Kyiv still stalled.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Two extremely extended Russian attack axes from Konotop and Sumy are stalled out. Likely out ran their supplies. Assault is road bound. Many maps show the broad area between the road advances under Russian control but no evidence of real control. (This is why I currently favor the ‘Wiki map and the link below) Kharkiv continues to face brutal bombing focused on residential areas with numerous videos released of apartment complexes leveled or on fire.

Eastern (Dombass Separatist Region) Front -
No significant changes. Mariupol still under siege with Russia violating at least two cease fires organized to permit refugees to leave the fighting.

Crimea Front -
The most successful sector has now apparently stalled out. Three major pushes 1) North - northwest towards Voznesensk 2) Northward towards Zaporizhzhia and 3) eastward towards Mariupol show evidence of having stalled. Ukraine counter attack reportedly regained the airport at Mykolaiv, further slowing the Russian push towards Zaporizhzhia.

Video also emerged which appeared to show Ukrainian defense forces based in Odessa, the country’s largest port, exchanging fire with ships overnight. The Ukrainians are claiming they hit a Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship Vasily Bykov last night with MLRS fire. These Project 22160 ships are brand new and only have a few currently in service.

US intelligence shows no signs of an amphibious assault against the Odessa region any time soon. Russia did a generally unopposed amphibious operation against Mariupol last week. Odessa is a completely different matter. Odessa has had over two weeks to prepare for an amphibious operation and any Russian operation would be heavily contested. Russian navy has at least six large amphibious vessels (the ones that came out the Baltic Sea area over a month ago), however they unload out the bow of the ship - a well placed and timed Ukraine ATGM could block the unload. Russian AF support would face stiff ADA as well. Given the poor coordination of Russian military branches, total lack of a ground push from Crimea to support the assault and the high losses that would be expected may have Russian military leaders hesitant at this stage.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Russia’s ceasefire offer begrudgingly acknowledges its failure in this war. However, its gonna take a lot more Russia losses of men and material before they make any serious concessions - perhaps even replacement of Putin. I expect intensive bombing or civilian targets to continue and intensify. Some commentators calling the lack of Russian progress a ‘pause’ to resupply and the big push is about to come. I don’t agree with that assessment. Russia has committed virtually all of its pre positioned invasion forces into the battle - there are no reserves in place to draw upon in a timely manner to carry forward the attack. Forces are road bound and logistics extremely vulnerable to interdiction.

More Russian armor taken out, more Russian aircraft to be shot down.

Military resupply continues to pour in to Poland to transshipped into Ukraine. I expect more efforts to free up jets in the eastern european forces but not in a timely manner. I have increasing concerns as Putins’ war continues to bog down he may try to strike at resupply convoy as well as refugee convoys. Either would greatly increase the chance of NATO direct action.

I also expect to see this week the effects of sanctions to really start to take a bigger bite out of the Russian economy and pocket books. This in turn will likely cause more and larger protests to erupt. I also wouldn’t be surprised if by the end of the week Russian oil being at least partially blocked on global markets.
___________________________________

Belarus -

People are still trying to figure out what is going on with Belarus involvement in the ground assault in Ukraine. After reports that they were mobilizing forces to join the battle, other RUMINT has been out there citing rebellion, resignations and desertions from the Belarus military.
From the UK Daily Mail - The deputy minister of defence for Belarus has reportedly submitted his resignation and claimed he cannot support the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. Major General Viktor Gulevich, who is also the chief of the general staff, argued that Belarusian military unit personnel refused to take part in hostilities and that the Armed Forces of Belarus could not complete a single battalion group.
Bottom line is, no additional ground forces to assist Russia at this time.
_______________________________________

Poland -

Taken in nearly 1 million refugees and serving a the hub for weapons resupply efforts.
______________________________________

Middle East / N. Africa General -

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched at least one missile into the busy waters of Red Sea over the weekend, the U.S. Navy said Monday

___________________________________

Israel -
See Syrian airstrike below

PM Bennett face to face talks with Putin, no real discussion on results.

____________________________________

Syria -

Israeli airstrike in Damascus area yesterday targeting the standard Hezbollah munitions depot.
__________________________________

Venezuela -

US talking to Venezuela on oil production.

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165 posted on 03/07/2022 8:16:51 AM PST by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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