Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

In February 2022, Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum (WEF) released a new report, “Advancing Digital Agency: The Power of Data Intermediaries,” which lays out their plans for the creation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, a fusion of the “physical, digital and biological world.” The report states that the “COVID 19 pandemic has led to a heightened focus on the power of medical data, specifically so-called vaccine passports. These passports, by nature, serve as a form of digital identity.

OBSERVATION - Key takeaway is that this will permit increased individual monitoring of activities and purchases. It will form the foundation for a global social credit system that will give them the power to control citizens and punish those they deem “untrustworthy.”

Observers and commentators are wondering if the draconian crackdown in Canada under the Emergency Act is a beta test for biden to launch similar actions under potentially the Patriot Act. Many have noted the vast, unaccountable powers the govt can exert in an extra-constitutional manner.
_____________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Organizers have decided to withdraw from Ottawa in the face of brutal police efforts to stop the protest. Brutality includes horses trampling protestors, rubber bullets, CS and pepper spray, and abundant batons clubbing protestors.
- One disturbing aspect of the Ottawa crackdowns were police going to stores and cafe’s that they claimed supported the protests by selling products to protestors.
- Trudeau govt is trying to take advantage of the “temporary “ powers to make permanent oppressive laws. Chief of these are unilateral power to freeze bank accounts and cancel insurance policies as well as targeting digital assets and funding mechanisms.
- The Emergency Powers declaration is still expected to be approved by parliament by a very slim majority. However, lawsuits against it are mounting. Most recent Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said he will be filing a court challenge against the Liberal government’s invocation of the Emergencies Act, saying it is unnecessary, disproportionate, and an intrusion into provincial jurisdiction.
- There is growing momentum among the Canadian trucking community to up the stakes by calling for a national trucker strike.
- The withdrawal of the Ottawa protest has kicked off numerous other protests across Canada.
One things for sure, the fat lady hasn’t sung yet.

Capitol police in D C are concerned about a trucker protest currently expected to reach the city in time tor biden’s so called ‘state of the union’ address. The capitol is in the process of re-erecting the fence around the building.

Police in New Zealand said anti-vaccine demonstrators threw human waste at them on Monday, as authorities attempt to place roadblocks around a camp built by demonstrators outside Wellington’s parliament building.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

Foreign tourists are welcome in Australia once again after nearly two years.
German officials say COVID travel restrictions will be eased early next month.
_____________________________

Economy -

March lumber futures in Chicago closed at $1,270 per 1,000 board ft. in Chicago on Friday, up more than 36% since the beginning of the month due to tighter Canadian supplies ahead of the spring building season.
Bloomberg reports the increase in lumber prices comes as Canfor Corporation, the world’s third-largest integrated forest products company based in Vancouver, British Columbia, announced a supply cut of 150 million board feet of production due to mountain pine beetle infestation that has devastated trees. Simultaneously, West Fraser Timber Co, the world’s largest timber company, reported port congestion and truck and rail car shortage make it challenging to transport lumber to buyers.
OBSERVATION - Invest in plywood , not gold. . . . .

Median rent rose 19.3 per cent in 12 months in the 50 largest US metro areas, according to Realtor.com. Economists worry about the impact of rent increases on inflation because the big jumps in new leases feed into the US consumer price index, which is used to measure inflation.

CNN claims: “Gas in California hit a record high of $4.72 a gallon on average on Wednesday — and experts say a whopping $5 a gallon will likely be the norm there in a matter of months, if not sooner.

In related the Biden administration announced Saturday that it will either suspend or delay new federal oil and gas leasing, weeks after Judge James Cain of the Western District of Louisiana blocked the administration’s method of calculating the social costs associated with greenhouse gases, the Hill reports.
OBSERVATION - Suspended or delayed permits will delay supplies in a longer term, but impact short term prices due to speculation and uncertainties in long term supply.

Last week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission changed the rules on pending and future natural gas pipelines and related projects, citing the threat of catastrophic climate change and injecting environmental justice concerns. Now with a 3-2 Democratic majority under President Joe Biden, the vote followed party lines. One of the nay votes came from Mark Christie, formerly a member of Virginia’s State Corporation Commission and he issued the following statement .
“What the majority does today is essentially assume it has the power to rewrite both the Natural Gas Act (NGA) and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), but that is a power that we do not have; only the elected legislators in Congress have that power and they have not delegated it to us.
And the result, especially the greenhouse gas policy that purports to address climate change, is such a confusing mess of a policy that the majority sticks an “interim” label on it. But don’t be fooled by the “interim” label. This new policy – confusing as it is – applies right now, not only to new applications, but to all pending applications, and it will inflict material harm on all pending applications right now. Changing the rules in the middle of the game violates any serious principle of due process, regulatory certainty, and just basic fairness.”

OBSERVATION - Basically, the FERC has taken the powers to essentially shut down projects - at any stage - for ‘climate change’ reasons. Even to the extent of banning the use of natural gas.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The immigration policy that is known as the Remain in Mexico program is now on a fast track to having oral arguments heard by the U.S. Supreme Court. The Supreme Court agreed on Friday to expedite a review of the Biden administration’s plan to do away with the program.
In earlier judgments, lower courts have sided against the Biden administration and ruled that it has not provided adequate reasons for ending the policy. The courts have ruled that the Biden administration’s procedures for asylum seekers are unlawful.

76,000 Afghans have been relocated to cities across the United States. Relocation facilities on US military bases have shut down.
______________________________

Biden watch -

Global eyes on biden to see if he has the mental and physical stamina to pull off a meeting with Putin to halt the impending invasion of Ukraine .
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Protesters in Minneapolis on Friday called for harsher punishment for former Minnesota police officer Kim Potter, who was sentenced to two years behind bars in the shooting death of Duante Wright, and while the demonstrations were peaceful, police confirmed several looting incidents later in the day and looters in the area.

In Portland, Antifa picked a gunfight with a biker gang, Gypsy Jokers, and had their arses handed to them. In ultimate irony, Antifa complained that the Portland police did nothing to protect them.

___________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Pundits are noting that democrat infighting has resulted in sharpened attacks against the “squad” and the progressive wing. These attacks are viewed as efforts to pull back to the center in the face of a potentially devastating midterm election. Already, there are 30 democrat representatives who’ve announced their retirement and who’s seats will likely swing to republicans.
_____________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

There is RUMINT that the Canadian hacker who broke into GiveSendGo had allegedly worked for the FBI, INTERPOL, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) . Some infer that this is a ‘gray’ tactic that leftist govts will increasingly use to silence opposition.
_________________________________

China -

The Australian Defence Department has strongly condemned ‘unsafe military conduct’ after an incident involving a defence force aircraft and a Chinese vessel. On Thursday February 17, the P-8A Poseidon detected a laser illuminating the aircraft while in flight over Australia’s northern approaches, Defence says. The laser was detected coming from a People’s Liberation Army Navy vessel, a statement on Saturday said.
____________________________________

Russia - T-?

WAR WATCH - Putin has deployed the 75% of the Russian army for combat and can execute several options at any moment. Russian deployments indicate the capability to launch an offensive against Ukraine along 7 fronts: from the Union State of Russia and Belarus, from the Russian Federation, from Russian-occupied Donbas, from the Sea of Azov, from Russian-occupied Crimea, from the Black Sea, from Russian-occupied Moldova.

****Update ****
Here are the current indicators of an impending attack -
- Increasing conflict between separatists and Ukrainian forces. Shelling by separatist forces continues to increase.
- “Exercises” in Belarus have been extended.
- Tactical units are deployed in “jump off’ positions.

POTENTIAL DIRECT THREATS TO THE US -
- Cyber attacks on energy and economic targets

********

The weekend was in deed chaotic and the ability of OSINT has become limited due to the extent of Russian preparations for attack. Assembly areas have emptied out and forces are deployed tactically in designated ‘jump off’ points. Intelligence now is the realm of classified nature. We’ve seen false flags and propaganda ‘sources’ all weekend and continue today. Bottom line is, the gun is cocked and is waiting the pull of the tigger by Putin.

(Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia’s Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to hold a summit on the Ukraine crisis, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday. “The substance will have to be prepared by (U.S.) Secretary Blinken and (Russian Foreign) Minister Lavrov during their meeting on Thursday 24 February,” the Elysee palace said.
“It can only be held at the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine.”
Tentative date for this meeting is Thursday.
However, Putin both accepted “the principle” of holding a US-Russia summit, the Kremlin said no plans have yet been made.

OBSERVATION - The sincerity of Putin on talks is uncertain. Right now it appears that he is like a cat playing with a mouse. However, there comes a moment where he has to *hit or get off the pot. Delaying offensive operations will only degrade his forces ability to execute their mission and the clock is ticking.

Russian Southern Military district has claimed that 2 Ukrainian military vehicles attempted to enter Rostov region “for evacuation”. Military units of District and FSB killed 5 saboteurs from the group
NOTE!!!! - This is most likely propaganda and should be considered with suspicion given the plethora of other propaganda and false flags coming out of that area. I post this as an example of what to be wary of.

POTENTIAL AXIS OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS -
A lot os speculation on the nature and extent of any Russian attack. I’m inclined to view an attack that attempts to envelope the bulk of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and cutting off Kiev in the process. Russian forces aligned against eastern Ukraine would attempt a pincer around the separatist controlled areas with forces in the Belarus / Russia region not of Kiev attacking southward west of Kiev, along the western bank of the Dnepir River to cut off reinforcements or block retreat of Ukraine forces. The combined operation would cut off Kiev and force capitulation without a bloody fight to take the city.
A smaller operation will be made to connect Crimea to the separatist controlled regions - the “land bridge’ Russia desires, as well as securing water supples to the region that were cut off in 2014.
NOTE - Russia hasn’t executed a military operation of this scale since WW2 and success depends on how well they can coordinate all the pieces. Historically, Russia hasn’t had the NCO corps that the US army has, so as officer leadership gets attritted, independent operations will decline. I’m not sure how successful Russia has been to correct this historic weakness.
Also note that Russian will likely gain air superiority over Ukraine very quickly., permitting ground maneuver elements freedom of movement.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru Feb 28 show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. Today is a waning Gibbous moon.

To give a measure of how much fighting between separatists and Ukraine forces have grown, reported violations of the cease fire were about 5 /day and over the weekend went well above 2000.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Russia will extend its military deployment in Belarus indefinitely in response to renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced on Sunday – the day the joint maneuvers were supposedly to have ended. Russia had earlier announced that those forces will redeploy after the end of the exercise.
_______________________________________

Black Swans -

Bill Gates has been on the radar saying that a new, deadlier disease will be striking soon. Could be just his genocidal wishes or a slip of globalist plans.

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Facial recognition technology is on the rise. One company, Clearview AI , is moving forward to exploit the technology in spite of resistance to the idea. “Clearview AI is telling investors it is on track to have 100 billion facial photos in its database within a year, enough to ensure ‘almost everyone in the world will be identifiable,’ according to a financial presentation from December obtained by The Washington Post,” the Post reported today. There are an estimated 7.9 billion people on the planet.
The December presentation was part of an effort to obtain new funding from investors, so 100 billion facial images is more of a goal than a firm plan. However, the presentation said that Clearview has already racked up 10 billion images and is adding 1.5 billion images a month, the Post wrote. Clearview told investors it needs another $50 million to hit its goal of 100 billion photos, the Post reported:

OBSERVATION - Use of facial recognition technology will serve to track individuals when networks of cameras are established and networked. The technology has advanced significantly since it was first put out there by facebook for instance over a decade ago.

_____________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Canadian House of Commons approved Trudeau’s emergency declaration on a party line vote. The measure next goes to the Senate for approval. The motion extends the emergency powers for thirty days.
- Trudeau has announced that he intends these measures to be in place for an extended period of time, not temporary as he earlier stated.
- Opinion polls show that the opposition conservative party has shot up to a 10% advantage over Truedau. However, that can only come to bear in a new election.
- Tamara Lich, one of the leading organizers behind protests against COVID-19 restrictions and the Liberal government on Parliament Hill, has been denied bail.

US convoy organizer Bob Bolus says a trucker convoy will shut down Washington, DC’s beltway later this week to protest pandemic mandates while keeping a path open for emergency vehicles, Fox 5 DC reported. In response to the protest, D.C. police will reportedly be “mobilizing” on Wednesday by deploying about 500 officers to reduce the “civil disturbance.” One police tactic to lift the potential blockade is to use tow trucks to remove the trucks. But according to the Fox 5 DC report, sources with knowledge of police activity have revealed towing companies are siding with the protestors and will not help police remove the blockade.

Trucker protest continues in New Zealand, but pressures on both sides could result in violence as police pressure the encampment and a faction of protestors reacting with violent intents

Israel convoy protests continue, in the face of police destroying their camp and taking personal property.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

CDC is updating its masking guidelines.

An investigation of official US Government data comparing the number of doses administered to the number of adverse events officially reported, has found that the Covid-19 injections are at least 49 times deadlier than the Influenza vaccines.

The New York Times reports quotes from the CDC spokesperson about why the public health organization refuses to release data on COVID-19 and the vaccines. The CDC basically says they do not want to release the data because they are worried people will talk about the data, and not the official CDC interpretation of the data.
_____________________________

Economy -

Oil prices climbed on Monday, pushing closer to the $100 barrel threshold after Arab oil producers agreed that oil production should not rise. The price of Brent, the global standard, rose by nearly 3.91 percent on Monday to $97.20, the highest price since 2014. Many traders believe is very likely to push above $100 a barrel soon. Oil prices are also on the verge of climbing in response to military conflict in Ukraine.
Industry representatives, expect the price to go above $100 / barrel for most of 2022 on supply and international stability issues.
______________________________

Japan -

Japan on Tuesday said it stood ready to join the United States and other G7 industrialised nations in enacting sanctions on Russia should President Vladimir Putin order an invasion of Ukraine.

____________________________________

Russia - T-?

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid. So-called peacekeepers are likely to come in contact with Ukrainian military forces, increasing the likelihood of large-scale combat operations.

********
Putin’s largely unexpected recognition of separatist controlled regions as independent countries and ordering movement of Russian troops into them is still rocking the world and I’m working to see what ramifications there will be as well as if this will satisfy Russia (for now) and defuse the situation. This action is viewed as the end of the Minsk agreements. Besides trashing the Minsk agreements, Russia’s open deployment of the army on their behalf would breach the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which includes clauses on the “inviolability of frontiers” in Europe, and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia agreed to uphold the sovereignty of Ukraine. Internationally, countries are struggling to define Russian movement into the breakaway regions as an “invasion”.

Some analysts view Russia’s actions having parallel in its invasion of Georgia. During the civil wars which rumbled across Georgia in the early 1990s, the two breakaway areas on the border with Russia declared their independence.
In 2008, the Georgian army tried taking them back by force, launching an assault on the rebel stronghold of Tskhinvali, only to find the Russian military pushing them all the way back to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi. Russia said its forces were acting as peacekeepers against Georgian aggression, and recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s statehood shortly after the war. Russia participation grew from ‘peacekeepers’ to open military operations. Many are concerned of a similar pattern against Ukraine.

Putin speech Monday also decried the “madness” that gave former Soviet republics self-determination in the first place, an argument with ominous implications for the Baltic states. Putin laid out a long history of grievances since the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of the states that once made it up.. “We gave these republics the right to leave the union without any terms and conditions,” he Putin said. “This is just madness.”
OBSERVATION - This reflects what I’ve noted in the past, that Putin seeks a resurgence of the Soviet Union. Eastern European countries are appropriately concerned that Russia will pursue that goal more aggressively now under weak to nonexistent leadership from the White House. Substantial placement of Russian forces in Belarus has the Baltic States very concerned the they are next.

Russia’s parliament ratified the treaties with two separatist Ukrainian regions, a step that could pave the way to Moscow building military bases there, adopting a joint defense posture and tightening economic integration. The treaties were submitted to parliament by Putin for ratification on Monday night. Each party gives the other “the right for its armed forces to build, use and improve military infrastructure and military bases on its territory,” they say.

So far, Russia’s incursion into Ukrainian territory appears to be limited to the Donbass region in the SE. If Russia goes no further, a similar response from other countries as occurred in 2014 when Russia “annexed” Crimea. Russian Foreign Ministry clarifies the recognition only of areas of Donetsk and Luhansk region without control of Ukraine. However, the two self-proclaimed “people’s republics” also claim the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as their territory, beyond where they already control. Thus the ongoing fighting is not expected to be stopped any time soon.

According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russia has sent more than 10,000 troops into Ukrainian territory occupied by separatists, with 6,000 going to Donetsk, 5,000 to Luhansk and 1,500 to Horlivka.

Columns of military vehicles including tanks seen early Tuesday on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of the breakaway east Ukraine regions, after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the regions as independent state

Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday said Britain would sanction five Russian banks and three high net worth individuals including Gennady Timchenko

____________________________________

Ukraine -

Conflict between separatists and Ukraine forces have continued, with increasing danger of engaging Russian forces.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus has endorsed the recognition of the two Dombass regions.
_______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Czech Republic PM Fiala about Russia: “Western approach hasn’t been tough enough so far.” . “We have already sent 152-millimeter artillery shells to Ukraine. We are ready to discuss providing more help if Ukraine asks for”

Germany has stopped the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reacted to Russia’s move to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, arguing it violated international agreements.
“I condemn Russia’s decision to extend recognition to the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic.’ This further undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, erodes efforts towards a resolution of the conflict, and violates the Minsk Agreements to which Russia is a party,” Stoltenberg said in a statement Monday.
Stoltenberg accused Russia of attempting to “stage a pretext to invade Ukraine once again” while demanding that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine” should be respected.

European Union foreign ministers will consider a package of sanctions against Russia on Tuesday with a view to finalising it without delay, according to a joint announcement from European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, head of the European Council.
The package will target the following:
* those involved in the “illegal” decision to recognise the breakaway regions;
* banks that are financing Russian military and other operations in those territories;
* the ability of the Russian state to access the EU’s capital and financial markets and services, with the aim of limiting financing for escalatory and aggressive policies;
* trade from the two breakaway regions to and from the EU to ensure that those responsible clearly feel the economic consequences of their illegal and aggressive actions.

____________________________________

________________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Efforts growing for a nation wide general trucker strike.
- The federal government says the RCMP is working with financial institutions to “unfreeze” bank accounts locked by emergency orders that targeted people who organized, participated in, or donated to the so-called Freedom Convoy blockades.

US convoy -
- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has authorized an order to mobilize as many as 700 D.C. National Guard members ahead of an upcoming trucker convoy to the nation’s capital. Austin also approved a request from the USCP for assistance for up to 300 National Guard troops from outside D.C. to assist at designated traffic posts and select Capitol entry points starting no later than 7 a.m., on Saturday, February 26.
- Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) tweeted an article about the American convoy on its way to D.C. by saying, “Perfect time to impound and give the trucks to small trucking companies looking to expand their business.”
- Indicators that Antifa will attempt to interfere with the protest.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

France just deactivated nearly 4 MILLION vax passports for people who haven’t got their booster shot yet. This is due to a change in the booster time frame. The original timeframe said you’d have 7 months to get a Covid booster, and then, apparently overnight, they changed the timeframe down to 4 months, meaning that 4 million Frenchmen were suddenly exiled from society for not yet getting the 3rd Covid shot.

_____________________________

Economy -

According to new Housing data just out: “YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in December, remaining the same from the previous month.

Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022. Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
OBSERVATION - IMHO this reflects an increase in mortagage rates in anticipation of the Fed increasing its rates. Housing prices are so high that even small increases in interest rates are going to hammer the over inflated housing market - making purchases out of reach for most americans.

Increasing concern that gasoline prices will skyrocket from Ukraine / Russian spinoff and reluctance by OPEC to increase production rates. Oil now expected to exceed $110 / barrel for an extended period this summer.

______________________________

Biden watch -

Showing up an hour-and-a-half late to what was originally described as an urgent news conference, the president took to the podium and drowsily slurring his words in an attempt to deliver a response. Observers and foreign leaders were less than impressed by biden’s presentation.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

A new poll from Trafalgar Group and Convention of States Action shows that 55% of likely general election voters disapprove of Trudeau’s handling of the protesters. Democrats overwhelmingly favored Trudeau’s response with 65% approval to 17% disapproval. Republican responses were weighted even more heavily against Trudeau, however, with 87% of likely GOP voters disapproving to just 8% approving.
OBSERVATION - Sharpening of the divide between right and left. The tyrannical repressive measures supported by democrats shouldn’t be a surprise since leftists have been expressing similar for the past couple years in an increasingly open manner.

Information increasing indicating that Antifa elements will oppose the Trucker Freedom Convoy when it reaches DC. Some further rumblings suggest that there will be actions against is as it passes thru Antifa stronghold cities.
___________________________________

Domestic Terror -

The National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) has identified 50 Afghan refugees in the United States who are known or suspected terrorists. The national security threat emerged due to a lack of information sharing between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Department of Defense (DOD) for all biometric and contextual data. These Afghans are believed to have been released into the US and are now unlocatable.
_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The military is moving F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and a battalion of 20 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from Germany, as well as 800 soldiers from Italy, to Baltic states and Poland in an attempt to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.

_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

According to officials, no escalation in cyber activity from Russia have been noted. Western officials say recent Russian cyber activity against Ukraine has been “consistent with a previous pattern”.

_________________________________

China -

Taiwan’s president on Wednesday condemned Russia for ordering troops into Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine, and claimed the crisis was being used to hurt morale on the island, which has long been under the threat of a Chinese invasion

On Monday, China’s Foreign Minister announced plans to sanction U.S. defense contractors Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin. The announcement followed a $100m deal approved by the US for maintenance of Taiwan’s missile defense systems by the two companies.
____________________________________

North Korea -

Relatively quiet following a surge in missile launches.
__________________________________

Japan -

Japan to impose sanctions on Russia amid Ukraine crisis: PM Kishida “(Japan) will ban exports to and imports from the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as the issuance and trading of new Russian sovereign bonds in Japan”

____________________________________

Russia - T-?

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia maintains the capability to launch a major offensive on short notice. Forward stationing of logistics continues to be noted.

Russia is now claiming that the entire Dombass region, including that still under Ukraine control, belong to these new ‘republics’ , creating another excuse for Russian invasion. How far and fast western nations invoke sanctions along with military redeployments will drive Putin’s cost benefit analysis. However, all indicators show Russia has taken all the major steps necessary to attack.

OTOH the clock is ticking for Putin as troops cannot maintain such a level of alert / battle preparations indefinitely and weather is warming up, making cross country maneuvering (along with associated logistic support) increasingly problematical. Another factor is the call up of Ukraine reserves - generally considered to be well trained - that can bulk Ukraine ground forces to a near parity with deployed Russian ground forces. Even though standard doctrine posits that an offensive needs a much larger numeric superiority to over come a set defense, I’m not sure how much Russia’s air superiority can swing the battle on the ground under spring weather conditions. The longer Putin delays, the more ready Ukraine forces become.

All these things factored in my guess is that his window of attack has likely narrowed to less than sometime in the next two weeks.

********

Putin has released his updated demands to deescalate the situation. Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed after seizing it from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes. He hasn’t backed off his other demands for NATO withdrawal from the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Putin recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regions. The Kremlin then raised the stakes further by saying that recognition extends even to the large parts of those two regions now held by Ukrainian forces, including the major Azov Sea port of Mariupol.
OBSERVATION - I noted yesterday that expanded claims by separatist forces would cause difficulties and the word from the Kremlin only reinforces the prospect of continued conflict.

Australia targeted financial sanctions and travel bans in a first batch of measures, while New Zealand summoned Russia’s envoy to express its condemnation

The effects of US and European economic sanctions on Russia’s decision process are yet to be seen. However, it seems certain that Putin factored those into his decision to acknowledge independence of separatist areas yesterday. Putin noted that that any sanctions were two edged and that Russia has some strong cards to play as a major petroleum/natural gas producer.

Three Russian guided-missile cruisers have been arrayed across the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to counter three NATO carrier strike groups, causing concern in the Pentagon, a U.S. defense official told USNI News on Tuesday.
As of Monday, the three Slava-class cruisers were operating in and around the Aegean Sea – RTS Moskva (121) in the Black Sea, RFS Varyag (011) south of Italy and RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) off the coast of Syria, near Russia’s naval base in Tartus.
The three 11,500-ton Slavas were designed around launchers that can hold 16 SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missiles – each about the size of a telephone pole. Developed in the 1970s, the Slavas and the Sandboxes were designed to take on U.S. and NATO aircraft carriers by overwhelming them with a barrage of high-speed cruise missiles to sink ships.
he U.S. has surged additional guided-missile cruiser and destroyers to U.S. 6th Fleet. As of Tuesday, the U.S. has about a dozen guided-missile warships operating in the region, USNI News understands.
Four East Coast guided-missile destroyers – USS Donald Cook (DDG-75), USS Mitscher (DDG-57), USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Gonzalez (DDG-66) – left the U.S. last month as independent deployers.
“Throughout their deployment, they will participate in a range of maritime activities in support of the U.S. 6th Fleet and our NATO allies,” the Navy told USNI News.
Those ships joined the forward-deployed USS Ross (DDG-71), USS Roosevelt (DDG-80), USS Porter (DDG-78) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), and the escorts of the Harry S. Truman CSG.
While the Russian weapons appear imposing, the Aegis cruisers and destroyers have more sophisticated missile defense systems that outmatch the 1970s and 1980s-era Russian weapons. The risk to the U.S. and NATO ships is if the missile defenders are overwhelmed with the number of weapons the Russians fire and the U.S. and NATO ships run out of interceptors, USNI News understands. More at -
https://news.usni.org/2022/02/22/russian-navy-cruisers-positioned-to-counter-u-s-french-and-italian-carrier-groups-in-the-mediterranean

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

A state of emergency has been declared for Ukraine and reservists are being called up. Ukraine is capable of mobilizing a total of between 300,000 and 400,000 experienced reservists, in addition to 250,000-strong active service Armed Forces. The call-up came as Ukraine’s parliament voted to approve a draft law which gives permission to Ukrainians to carry firearms and act in self-defence.

Reuters: The flag has been taken down at the Russian Embassy in Kyiv. All Russian diplomatic missions in Ukraine are being evacuated - Representative of Russian Embassy in Kyiv

Ukraine urges citizens to leave Russia ‘immediately’: ministry

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday that any Russian troops deployed to eastern Ukraine would not be “peacekeepers” as Moscow has asserted and rejected President Putin’s claim that a genocide of ethnic Russians was being committed there

___________________________________

Belarus -

Biden “In response to Russia’s admission that it will not withdraw its forces from Belarus, I have authorized the additional movements of U.S. forces and equipment already stationed in Europe, to strengthen our Baltic allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

_______________________________________

Poland -

Poland’s PM Mora Wieckim on sanctions: very very mild, soft package, we need more decisive action but now we are in a different place, in a state of heightened alert we see many steps indicating that there will be another Russian attack
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

The Polish and Lithuanian presidents said in a joint statement that they support Ukraine being granted EU candidate status

In recent weeks, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, allies have deployed thousands of additional troops to the eastern part of the Alliance and placed more on standby:
“We have over 100 jets at high alert and there are more than 120 Allied ships at sea, from the High North to the Mediterranean.”

____________________________________

Israel -

Israeli foreign ministry releases first statement on the Russian invasion to Ukraine: “We share the international concern about the escalation, support Ukraine territorial integrity and sovereignty and willing to give Ukraine humanitarian assistance”
OBSERVATION - Israel has been cooperating with Russia in Syria when targeting Hezebollah facilities in order to avoid a direct conflict.

Israeli missile strikes overnight, targeted the positions of pro-Assad forces and the Iranian militias in Quneitra, southern Syria. These positions were a few observation points that served Hezbollah for gathering intelligence on Israeli military sites in northern Israel as part of the Golan File.
____________________________________

Iran -

The Iranian Parliament on Feb. 20 issued negotiation conditions to re-start nuclear talks with the U.S. and European diplomats. The IRNA news agency, Tehran’s official party-line information outlet, reported that 250 of the 290 parliamentarians published a letter for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to sign that laid out demands for Iran’s participation in the stalled 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iran’s parliament demands the talks on halting Tehran’s nuclear program – which would involve envoys from Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, and United States — can have no pre-conditions, but Iran can have six. Among the Iranian prerequisites are that no country can back out of a “restored” agreement and there can be no renewal of sanctions or “snapback mechanism” where sanctions can be put in place once lifted. That means that any terms and conditions arrived at for a new agreement cannot be enforced. That’s what Iran wants. With the JCPOA, there was little in the way of enforcement mechanisms.

OBSERVATION - Iran knows the weakness in the west under biden and thinks it can write its own ticket. They are probably correct as they watch US/NATO action surrounding the Ukraine / Russia crisis.
__________________________________

Lebanon -

Lebanese security forces have foiled plans by militants linked to Islamic State to carry out three suicide attacks in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the interior minister said on Wednesday. The plans for the attacks involved rocket-propelled grenades and gun fire as well as suicide vests rigged with explosives that would have killed many people, minister Bassam Mawlawi said.
The area is a support base of the Shiite Iran-backed Hezbollah group, which has fought mainly Sunni militants, including Islamic State, during Syria’s civil war.

OBSERVATION - ISIS is rising again across the region
__________________________________

Syria -

See Israel above on overnight missile strikes
__________________________________

Black Swans -

The 25th solar cycle is supposed to be quiet, but there was a suspicion that it would not be like the previous cycle, which occurred between 2008 and 2019. On T February 15 a solar flair was observed that stretched millions of kilometers into space and released the largest coronal mass ejection (CME) ever seen to date. Had this CME been directed towards earth, a solar storm would have exceeded the infamous Carrington event of the 1800’s, likely severely damaging the global power grid.
I noted some scoffing on FR threads over the threat posed by solar CME impacts. They forget a much smaller CME strike too out Ontario’s power grid in the 80’s and an even smaller CME knocking most of SPACEEX internet satellites out of orbit. We don’t really know what a major CME will do to our power grid.

I wish I could put together a clearer picture of what’s happening in Ukraine but the flood of information and the chaotic, fluid nature of the conflict could occupy dozens of analysts.
________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Waiting to see what the GGR does to exploit the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

_____________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Trudeau surprisingly withdrew the Emergency Act saying it was no longer needed to address the protests. Two thoughts on why the sudden change. 1) The freeze on bank accounts created a rush on banks and threatened a crash of the system as investors took money out or refused to make deposits (most likely) or 2) he got word that the senate would not support his declaration.

US convoy -
- The “People’s Convoy,” is calling for the immediate lifting of the national emergency declared in response to the pandemic

_____________________________

Economy -

Dow is in crash mode following Russian attack, down at one time over 800 points. Oil has shot over $100/barrel for the first time since 2014. Global markets crashing as well.

JPMorgan’s commodity desk is warning of skyrocketing prices as a result of the Ukraine / Russia war. JPM recently predicted full out war could lead to $150 oil and a global recession driven by soaring inflation.

The US imports nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Russia, should Russia cut off that supply, prices will go even higher.

In the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) latest report, January came back as the lowest month for crude oil inventories since August 2018. Last month, the US was a net importer of petroleum, bringing in 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) from foreign nations.

The Fed may change its approach to raising interest rates as a result of the global effects and impacts to the US economy from the conflict. . Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said earlier this week that the situation between Russia and Ukraine is a “downward risk to economic output.”

Overnight wheat prices have surged past nine-year highs, amid concerns of war between two of the world’s biggest exporters, Russia and Ukraine.

The White House hinted Tuesday that President Joe Biden is considering another release of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserves, as gas prices continue to rise. White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh said Biden would coordinate with major energy consumers to address higher energy prices, after the president announced a “first tranche” of sanctions against Russia after Vladimir Putin moved into Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The last strategic reserve release did absolutely nothing to control prices.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

The Del Rio Sector of the Texas Border has experienced a nearly 75 percent increase in unaccompanied minors attempting to enter the U.S. illegally under the Biden White House.
These numbers also follow extensive reports of convicted criminals – including convicted murderers, rapists, and pedophiles – seeking entry into the U.S. through President Joe Biden’s open borders. The trends found in the Del Rio Sector appear to replicate across the other 19 segments of the U.S. border, as attempted crossings have hit an all-time high.

______________________________

Biden watch -

Biden is expected to address the nation later on Thursday on the Russian war against Ukraine.

Democrats countering a democrat president SOTU?
Progressive Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan will be delivering a response to President Biden’s State of the Union address next week.
Tlaib, a member of the so-called “Squad” of progressive and diverse Democratic lawmakers in Congress, will give her address on behalf of the left-wing Workers Families Party, the group announced on Wednesday.
___________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

RUMINT. . . . RUMINT. . . . Report that United States is moving government officials IN THE UNITED STATES to safety/bunkers. Looking to confirm.
OBSERVATION - Uncertainty on the likelihood of a Russian strategic strike against US, continuation of operations (CONOPS) components may well have been initiated. At this stage this would be a precautionary action, not one in response to an imminent attack.
_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

Yesterday when I noted no significant cyber attacks, an hour later Russia launched their cyberattacks against Ukraine. Lots of global cyberattacks going on right making OSINT on the Russian attack very difficult.

US and EU on heightened alert for Russian source cyberattacks that are supporting the Russian offensive. More severe sanctions by the west could kick off a Russian cyber offensive.

_________________________________

China -

China is assessing the US/EU responses to the Russian offensive against Ukraine. No specific intelligence indicators of an impending attack against Taiwan though some think China will initially test the waters by capturing some outlying islands before attempting to capture Taiwan directly.

On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister released a statement saying that Taiwan is not Ukraine and has always been a part of China. In response to the statement, Taiwan’s President called for increased vigilance and for the island nation to beef up its defenses against a potential invasion by China.
____________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

********
Summary of events -

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine in a surprise television announcement at roughly 6:00 a.m. Moscow time, 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The Russian dictator described the unprovoked attack as a “special military operation for the de-Militarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine.”
He accused Ukraine of “genocide” for attacking the two new “independent republics” he unilaterally conjured into existence on Monday.
Putin bizarrely claimed Russia’s plans “do not include occupation of Ukrainian territory” and “we are not going to impose anything on anyone by force,”
One of the primary goals was to totally ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine.
Putin warned the nations of the world not to interfere or they would face severe consequences.

Confusion of war and garbled internet connections make up to date postings of Russia progress very difficult to assess. The tempo of the current operation will make it nearly impossible for me to stay on top of in a timely manner as well. Best I can do until the situation changes is to try to identify key trends and actions.

Russian MOEX Index down 48% since the start of combat. Ruble is down over 25%. headed to its lowest level ever.

Russian Defense Ministry (unconfirmed) - Officials who allowed the distribution of weapons to the civilian population of Kiev will be tried by a military tribunal as war criminals and shot on sight

Antiwar protests have broken out in Moscow - developing.

ASSESSMENT OF PUTIN’S GOALS
Statement of demilitarizing the country strongly infers a nation wide conquering of Ukraine. His statement on not including an occupation is propaganda and a lie - he cannot achieve the first without the second.
The big question is Putin’s logistics for the operation and Ukraine resistance. I can easily see the Russia offensive lasting for at least a week or more. World actions to punish Russia and Ukraine resistance could cause it to end prematurely. The strong push of forces from Belarus into the Kyiv area suggest an attempt to force Kyiv to capitulate as early as possible. The longer the combat lasts, the harder his his economy will be and support will drop at home.
I see Russia hard pressed to disarm Ukraine without physically controlling the entire country.

ASSESSMENT OF US/GLOBAL RESPONSE -
There are harsher economic sanctions that the US/world can invoke. The most serious is to ban Russia from an electronic network that processes international financial transactions. This would seize most of the Russian economy. Now Russia’s ‘peace’ pact with China could mitigate some of this, it may not be sufficient to prevent severe economic impacts. This may cause Putin to launch major cyber attacks against the US and EU, which may cause further retaliation.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

The war officially stated with extensive DOS and hacking attacks on Ukraine govt and finance/ bank sites. Immediately after Putin’s announcement of a ‘special operation’ rockets struck Kyiv.
As of 8 hours ago Russian ground military activity was concentrated west of a line from Kyiv to Odesa. Places east of that line are being hit pretty hard.

Confusion of war and garbled internet connections make up to date postings of Russia progress very difficult to assess.

Attack axises appear to be north out of Crimea, south out of Belarus and westward thru the separatist held regions. Rumors of an airborne operation in the northern area and amphibious operation in the Sea of Azmov and against the Odessa region. Also an large helicopter operation to capture an airport north of Kyiv

Updated summary of action
1. Strikes by long range missile across Ukraine, targeting airports, radars, ammo depots & warehouses
2. Ground pushes towards Kyiv from Belarus, Kharkiv & up from Crimea.
3. Very large Russian air assault on Hostomel air base, just NW of Kyiv. Helicopters seen over the town with some shot down.

NOTE - Many of the major rocket (and now airstrikes) are targeting C3, munitions depots and other strategic level targets.

Russian forces have reportedly taken Kherson and the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in Kherson region of Ukraine. Located immediately north of Crimea. May be part of Russian desire to restore water source for Crimea.

Some reports of Russian forces from Crimea are at least 60 km deep into Ukraine.

Massive movement of Ukraine civilians to the western portions of the country.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Russia has successfully made some gains, but it appears that the Ukraine defense is stiffening and beginning to inflict serious casualties on Russian forces. See follow on post for a map indicating some of the early assaults.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/24/12/54599425-10545389-image-a-175_1645706229880.jpg

___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus leader says his army not taking part in Ukraine invasion. However there is RUMINT that Belarus forces report very weak resistance in their push south towards Kyiv. Could be referring to Russian forces moving from Belarus. Can’t confirm at this time.

It has been confirmed that Russia launched rockets and missiles from Belarus territory into Ukraine.
_______________________________________

Poland -

Witnesses reporting sirens sounding in the Polish town of Medyka, a border crossing with Ukraine.

Poland aims to modernize and expand its armed forces into one of the strongest in NATO, under a new homeland defense proposal backed by the government on Tuesday. Outlining the plan to reporters, Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński said the proposed homeland defense bill was designed to “create the legal basis and financial instruments for a radical expansion of Poland’s armed forces in terms of both manpower and firepower.” Under the bill, Poland’s armed forces are expected to increase to about 300,000 troops, including 250,000 career soldiers,.
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Eastern European members of NATO are invoking Article 4, which means urgent consultations on military plans for the alliance. There is increasing concerns that Putin has them in his sights for conquering after consolidating his forces in Ukraine. With Belarus essentially Russian territory, Russian military working with Belarus military in preparation for the Ukraine invasion, a similar operation against the Baltics could occur. Time frame may be in a year or more - depending on how quickly they can subdue Ukraine.

NATO will activate its defensive Response Force in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.
The decision was made by NATO’s North Atlantic Council. “Peace on our continent has been shattered,” Stoltenberg said. “We now have war in Europe on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history.”

Moldova closes airspace, raises threat level to yellow after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Russian forces launched cruse missiles from Moldovian territory.

Lithuanian President declares a state of emergency and is sending the military to “defend the border”

Britain’s biggest domestic lender Lloyds said on Thursday it was on “heightened alert” for cyberattacks from Russia as the crisis in Ukraine has worsened.
____________________________________

Israel -

Foreign Minister Lapid: Israel not bound by nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will ‘defend itself by itself.’

____________________________________

Turkey -

Ukraine’s Embassy in Turkey has requested Turkey close the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits for Russian warships. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara has control over the straits and can limit warship passages during wartime or if threatened.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convenes emergency meeting on security.

OBSERVATION - Turkey’s had a love/hate relationship with Russia over the past couple years, supporting proxy forces against russian proxy forces in several areas of the world. So far they have avoided direct confrontations. Closing of the straits would result in a potential direct confrontation.
______________________________________

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.