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I wish I could put together a clearer picture of what’s happening in Ukraine but the flood of information and the chaotic, fluid nature of the conflict could occupy dozens of analysts.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Waiting to see what the GGR does to exploit the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Trudeau surprisingly withdrew the Emergency Act saying it was no longer needed to address the protests. Two thoughts on why the sudden change. 1) The freeze on bank accounts created a rush on banks and threatened a crash of the system as investors took money out or refused to make deposits (most likely) or 2) he got word that the senate would not support his declaration.

US convoy -
- The “People’s Convoy,” is calling for the immediate lifting of the national emergency declared in response to the pandemic

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Economy -

Dow is in crash mode following Russian attack, down at one time over 800 points. Oil has shot over $100/barrel for the first time since 2014. Global markets crashing as well.

JPMorgan’s commodity desk is warning of skyrocketing prices as a result of the Ukraine / Russia war. JPM recently predicted full out war could lead to $150 oil and a global recession driven by soaring inflation.

The US imports nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Russia, should Russia cut off that supply, prices will go even higher.

In the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) latest report, January came back as the lowest month for crude oil inventories since August 2018. Last month, the US was a net importer of petroleum, bringing in 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) from foreign nations.

The Fed may change its approach to raising interest rates as a result of the global effects and impacts to the US economy from the conflict. . Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said earlier this week that the situation between Russia and Ukraine is a “downward risk to economic output.”

Overnight wheat prices have surged past nine-year highs, amid concerns of war between two of the world’s biggest exporters, Russia and Ukraine.

The White House hinted Tuesday that President Joe Biden is considering another release of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserves, as gas prices continue to rise. White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh said Biden would coordinate with major energy consumers to address higher energy prices, after the president announced a “first tranche” of sanctions against Russia after Vladimir Putin moved into Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The last strategic reserve release did absolutely nothing to control prices.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Del Rio Sector of the Texas Border has experienced a nearly 75 percent increase in unaccompanied minors attempting to enter the U.S. illegally under the Biden White House.
These numbers also follow extensive reports of convicted criminals – including convicted murderers, rapists, and pedophiles – seeking entry into the U.S. through President Joe Biden’s open borders. The trends found in the Del Rio Sector appear to replicate across the other 19 segments of the U.S. border, as attempted crossings have hit an all-time high.

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Biden watch -

Biden is expected to address the nation later on Thursday on the Russian war against Ukraine.

Democrats countering a democrat president SOTU?
Progressive Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan will be delivering a response to President Biden’s State of the Union address next week.
Tlaib, a member of the so-called “Squad” of progressive and diverse Democratic lawmakers in Congress, will give her address on behalf of the left-wing Workers Families Party, the group announced on Wednesday.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

RUMINT. . . . RUMINT. . . . Report that United States is moving government officials IN THE UNITED STATES to safety/bunkers. Looking to confirm.
OBSERVATION - Uncertainty on the likelihood of a Russian strategic strike against US, continuation of operations (CONOPS) components may well have been initiated. At this stage this would be a precautionary action, not one in response to an imminent attack.
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Cyber Warfare -

Yesterday when I noted no significant cyber attacks, an hour later Russia launched their cyberattacks against Ukraine. Lots of global cyberattacks going on right making OSINT on the Russian attack very difficult.

US and EU on heightened alert for Russian source cyberattacks that are supporting the Russian offensive. More severe sanctions by the west could kick off a Russian cyber offensive.

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China -

China is assessing the US/EU responses to the Russian offensive against Ukraine. No specific intelligence indicators of an impending attack against Taiwan though some think China will initially test the waters by capturing some outlying islands before attempting to capture Taiwan directly.

On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister released a statement saying that Taiwan is not Ukraine and has always been a part of China. In response to the statement, Taiwan’s President called for increased vigilance and for the island nation to beef up its defenses against a potential invasion by China.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

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Summary of events -

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine in a surprise television announcement at roughly 6:00 a.m. Moscow time, 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The Russian dictator described the unprovoked attack as a “special military operation for the de-Militarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine.”
He accused Ukraine of “genocide” for attacking the two new “independent republics” he unilaterally conjured into existence on Monday.
Putin bizarrely claimed Russia’s plans “do not include occupation of Ukrainian territory” and “we are not going to impose anything on anyone by force,”
One of the primary goals was to totally ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine.
Putin warned the nations of the world not to interfere or they would face severe consequences.

Confusion of war and garbled internet connections make up to date postings of Russia progress very difficult to assess. The tempo of the current operation will make it nearly impossible for me to stay on top of in a timely manner as well. Best I can do until the situation changes is to try to identify key trends and actions.

Russian MOEX Index down 48% since the start of combat. Ruble is down over 25%. headed to its lowest level ever.

Russian Defense Ministry (unconfirmed) - Officials who allowed the distribution of weapons to the civilian population of Kiev will be tried by a military tribunal as war criminals and shot on sight

Antiwar protests have broken out in Moscow - developing.

ASSESSMENT OF PUTIN’S GOALS
Statement of demilitarizing the country strongly infers a nation wide conquering of Ukraine. His statement on not including an occupation is propaganda and a lie - he cannot achieve the first without the second.
The big question is Putin’s logistics for the operation and Ukraine resistance. I can easily see the Russia offensive lasting for at least a week or more. World actions to punish Russia and Ukraine resistance could cause it to end prematurely. The strong push of forces from Belarus into the Kyiv area suggest an attempt to force Kyiv to capitulate as early as possible. The longer the combat lasts, the harder his his economy will be and support will drop at home.
I see Russia hard pressed to disarm Ukraine without physically controlling the entire country.

ASSESSMENT OF US/GLOBAL RESPONSE -
There are harsher economic sanctions that the US/world can invoke. The most serious is to ban Russia from an electronic network that processes international financial transactions. This would seize most of the Russian economy. Now Russia’s ‘peace’ pact with China could mitigate some of this, it may not be sufficient to prevent severe economic impacts. This may cause Putin to launch major cyber attacks against the US and EU, which may cause further retaliation.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

The war officially stated with extensive DOS and hacking attacks on Ukraine govt and finance/ bank sites. Immediately after Putin’s announcement of a ‘special operation’ rockets struck Kyiv.
As of 8 hours ago Russian ground military activity was concentrated west of a line from Kyiv to Odesa. Places east of that line are being hit pretty hard.

Confusion of war and garbled internet connections make up to date postings of Russia progress very difficult to assess.

Attack axises appear to be north out of Crimea, south out of Belarus and westward thru the separatist held regions. Rumors of an airborne operation in the northern area and amphibious operation in the Sea of Azmov and against the Odessa region. Also an large helicopter operation to capture an airport north of Kyiv

Updated summary of action
1. Strikes by long range missile across Ukraine, targeting airports, radars, ammo depots & warehouses
2. Ground pushes towards Kyiv from Belarus, Kharkiv & up from Crimea.
3. Very large Russian air assault on Hostomel air base, just NW of Kyiv. Helicopters seen over the town with some shot down.

NOTE - Many of the major rocket (and now airstrikes) are targeting C3, munitions depots and other strategic level targets.

Russian forces have reportedly taken Kherson and the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in Kherson region of Ukraine. Located immediately north of Crimea. May be part of Russian desire to restore water source for Crimea.

Some reports of Russian forces from Crimea are at least 60 km deep into Ukraine.

Massive movement of Ukraine civilians to the western portions of the country.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Russia has successfully made some gains, but it appears that the Ukraine defense is stiffening and beginning to inflict serious casualties on Russian forces. See follow on post for a map indicating some of the early assaults.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/24/12/54599425-10545389-image-a-175_1645706229880.jpg

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Belarus -

Belarus leader says his army not taking part in Ukraine invasion. However there is RUMINT that Belarus forces report very weak resistance in their push south towards Kyiv. Could be referring to Russian forces moving from Belarus. Can’t confirm at this time.

It has been confirmed that Russia launched rockets and missiles from Belarus territory into Ukraine.
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Poland -

Witnesses reporting sirens sounding in the Polish town of Medyka, a border crossing with Ukraine.

Poland aims to modernize and expand its armed forces into one of the strongest in NATO, under a new homeland defense proposal backed by the government on Tuesday. Outlining the plan to reporters, Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński said the proposed homeland defense bill was designed to “create the legal basis and financial instruments for a radical expansion of Poland’s armed forces in terms of both manpower and firepower.” Under the bill, Poland’s armed forces are expected to increase to about 300,000 troops, including 250,000 career soldiers,.
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Europe / NATO General -

Eastern European members of NATO are invoking Article 4, which means urgent consultations on military plans for the alliance. There is increasing concerns that Putin has them in his sights for conquering after consolidating his forces in Ukraine. With Belarus essentially Russian territory, Russian military working with Belarus military in preparation for the Ukraine invasion, a similar operation against the Baltics could occur. Time frame may be in a year or more - depending on how quickly they can subdue Ukraine.

NATO will activate its defensive Response Force in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.
The decision was made by NATO’s North Atlantic Council. “Peace on our continent has been shattered,” Stoltenberg said. “We now have war in Europe on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history.”

Moldova closes airspace, raises threat level to yellow after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Russian forces launched cruse missiles from Moldovian territory.

Lithuanian President declares a state of emergency and is sending the military to “defend the border”

Britain’s biggest domestic lender Lloyds said on Thursday it was on “heightened alert” for cyberattacks from Russia as the crisis in Ukraine has worsened.
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Israel -

Foreign Minister Lapid: Israel not bound by nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will ‘defend itself by itself.’

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Turkey -

Ukraine’s Embassy in Turkey has requested Turkey close the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits for Russian warships. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara has control over the straits and can limit warship passages during wartime or if threatened.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convenes emergency meeting on security.

OBSERVATION - Turkey’s had a love/hate relationship with Russia over the past couple years, supporting proxy forces against russian proxy forces in several areas of the world. So far they have avoided direct confrontations. Closing of the straits would result in a potential direct confrontation.
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