Replies

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

Facial recognition technology is on the rise. One company, Clearview AI , is moving forward to exploit the technology in spite of resistance to the idea. “Clearview AI is telling investors it is on track to have 100 billion facial photos in its database within a year, enough to ensure ‘almost everyone in the world will be identifiable,’ according to a financial presentation from December obtained by The Washington Post,” the Post reported today. There are an estimated 7.9 billion people on the planet.
The December presentation was part of an effort to obtain new funding from investors, so 100 billion facial images is more of a goal than a firm plan. However, the presentation said that Clearview has already racked up 10 billion images and is adding 1.5 billion images a month, the Post wrote. Clearview told investors it needs another $50 million to hit its goal of 100 billion photos, the Post reported:

OBSERVATION - Use of facial recognition technology will serve to track individuals when networks of cameras are established and networked. The technology has advanced significantly since it was first put out there by facebook for instance over a decade ago.

_____________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Canadian House of Commons approved Trudeau’s emergency declaration on a party line vote. The measure next goes to the Senate for approval. The motion extends the emergency powers for thirty days.
- Trudeau has announced that he intends these measures to be in place for an extended period of time, not temporary as he earlier stated.
- Opinion polls show that the opposition conservative party has shot up to a 10% advantage over Truedau. However, that can only come to bear in a new election.
- Tamara Lich, one of the leading organizers behind protests against COVID-19 restrictions and the Liberal government on Parliament Hill, has been denied bail.

US convoy organizer Bob Bolus says a trucker convoy will shut down Washington, DC’s beltway later this week to protest pandemic mandates while keeping a path open for emergency vehicles, Fox 5 DC reported. In response to the protest, D.C. police will reportedly be “mobilizing” on Wednesday by deploying about 500 officers to reduce the “civil disturbance.” One police tactic to lift the potential blockade is to use tow trucks to remove the trucks. But according to the Fox 5 DC report, sources with knowledge of police activity have revealed towing companies are siding with the protestors and will not help police remove the blockade.

Trucker protest continues in New Zealand, but pressures on both sides could result in violence as police pressure the encampment and a faction of protestors reacting with violent intents

Israel convoy protests continue, in the face of police destroying their camp and taking personal property.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

CDC is updating its masking guidelines.

An investigation of official US Government data comparing the number of doses administered to the number of adverse events officially reported, has found that the Covid-19 injections are at least 49 times deadlier than the Influenza vaccines.

The New York Times reports quotes from the CDC spokesperson about why the public health organization refuses to release data on COVID-19 and the vaccines. The CDC basically says they do not want to release the data because they are worried people will talk about the data, and not the official CDC interpretation of the data.
_____________________________

Economy -

Oil prices climbed on Monday, pushing closer to the $100 barrel threshold after Arab oil producers agreed that oil production should not rise. The price of Brent, the global standard, rose by nearly 3.91 percent on Monday to $97.20, the highest price since 2014. Many traders believe is very likely to push above $100 a barrel soon. Oil prices are also on the verge of climbing in response to military conflict in Ukraine.
Industry representatives, expect the price to go above $100 / barrel for most of 2022 on supply and international stability issues.
______________________________

Japan -

Japan on Tuesday said it stood ready to join the United States and other G7 industrialised nations in enacting sanctions on Russia should President Vladimir Putin order an invasion of Ukraine.

____________________________________

Russia - T-?

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid. So-called peacekeepers are likely to come in contact with Ukrainian military forces, increasing the likelihood of large-scale combat operations.

********
Putin’s largely unexpected recognition of separatist controlled regions as independent countries and ordering movement of Russian troops into them is still rocking the world and I’m working to see what ramifications there will be as well as if this will satisfy Russia (for now) and defuse the situation. This action is viewed as the end of the Minsk agreements. Besides trashing the Minsk agreements, Russia’s open deployment of the army on their behalf would breach the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which includes clauses on the “inviolability of frontiers” in Europe, and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia agreed to uphold the sovereignty of Ukraine. Internationally, countries are struggling to define Russian movement into the breakaway regions as an “invasion”.

Some analysts view Russia’s actions having parallel in its invasion of Georgia. During the civil wars which rumbled across Georgia in the early 1990s, the two breakaway areas on the border with Russia declared their independence.
In 2008, the Georgian army tried taking them back by force, launching an assault on the rebel stronghold of Tskhinvali, only to find the Russian military pushing them all the way back to Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi. Russia said its forces were acting as peacekeepers against Georgian aggression, and recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s statehood shortly after the war. Russia participation grew from ‘peacekeepers’ to open military operations. Many are concerned of a similar pattern against Ukraine.

Putin speech Monday also decried the “madness” that gave former Soviet republics self-determination in the first place, an argument with ominous implications for the Baltic states. Putin laid out a long history of grievances since the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of the states that once made it up.. “We gave these republics the right to leave the union without any terms and conditions,” he Putin said. “This is just madness.”
OBSERVATION - This reflects what I’ve noted in the past, that Putin seeks a resurgence of the Soviet Union. Eastern European countries are appropriately concerned that Russia will pursue that goal more aggressively now under weak to nonexistent leadership from the White House. Substantial placement of Russian forces in Belarus has the Baltic States very concerned the they are next.

Russia’s parliament ratified the treaties with two separatist Ukrainian regions, a step that could pave the way to Moscow building military bases there, adopting a joint defense posture and tightening economic integration. The treaties were submitted to parliament by Putin for ratification on Monday night. Each party gives the other “the right for its armed forces to build, use and improve military infrastructure and military bases on its territory,” they say.

So far, Russia’s incursion into Ukrainian territory appears to be limited to the Donbass region in the SE. If Russia goes no further, a similar response from other countries as occurred in 2014 when Russia “annexed” Crimea. Russian Foreign Ministry clarifies the recognition only of areas of Donetsk and Luhansk region without control of Ukraine. However, the two self-proclaimed “people’s republics” also claim the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as their territory, beyond where they already control. Thus the ongoing fighting is not expected to be stopped any time soon.

According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, Russia has sent more than 10,000 troops into Ukrainian territory occupied by separatists, with 6,000 going to Donetsk, 5,000 to Luhansk and 1,500 to Horlivka.

Columns of military vehicles including tanks seen early Tuesday on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of the breakaway east Ukraine regions, after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the regions as independent state

Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday said Britain would sanction five Russian banks and three high net worth individuals including Gennady Timchenko

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru Feb 28 show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. Today is a waning Gibbous moon.

Conflict between separatists and Ukraine forces have continued, with increasing danger of engaging Russian forces.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus has endorsed the recognition of the two Dombass regions.
_______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Czech Republic PM Fiala about Russia: “Western approach hasn’t been tough enough so far.” . “We have already sent 152-millimeter artillery shells to Ukraine. We are ready to discuss providing more help if Ukraine asks for”

Germany has stopped the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reacted to Russia’s move to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, arguing it violated international agreements.
“I condemn Russia’s decision to extend recognition to the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic.’ This further undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, erodes efforts towards a resolution of the conflict, and violates the Minsk Agreements to which Russia is a party,” Stoltenberg said in a statement Monday.
Stoltenberg accused Russia of attempting to “stage a pretext to invade Ukraine once again” while demanding that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine” should be respected.

European Union foreign ministers will consider a package of sanctions against Russia on Tuesday with a view to finalising it without delay, according to a joint announcement from European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, head of the European Council.
The package will target the following:
* those involved in the “illegal” decision to recognise the breakaway regions;
* banks that are financing Russian military and other operations in those territories;
* the ability of the Russian state to access the EU’s capital and financial markets and services, with the aim of limiting financing for escalatory and aggressive policies;
* trade from the two breakaway regions to and from the EU to ensure that those responsible clearly feel the economic consequences of their illegal and aggressive actions.

____________________________________

________________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Efforts growing for a nation wide general trucker strike.
- The federal government says the RCMP is working with financial institutions to “unfreeze” bank accounts locked by emergency orders that targeted people who organized, participated in, or donated to the so-called Freedom Convoy blockades.

US convoy -
- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has authorized an order to mobilize as many as 700 D.C. National Guard members ahead of an upcoming trucker convoy to the nation’s capital. Austin also approved a request from the USCP for assistance for up to 300 National Guard troops from outside D.C. to assist at designated traffic posts and select Capitol entry points starting no later than 7 a.m., on Saturday, February 26.
- Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) tweeted an article about the American convoy on its way to D.C. by saying, “Perfect time to impound and give the trucks to small trucking companies looking to expand their business.”
- Indicators that Antifa will attempt to interfere with the protest.
_____________________________

Wuhan virus -

France just deactivated nearly 4 MILLION vax passports for people who haven’t got their booster shot yet. This is due to a change in the booster time frame. The original timeframe said you’d have 7 months to get a Covid booster, and then, apparently overnight, they changed the timeframe down to 4 months, meaning that 4 million Frenchmen were suddenly exiled from society for not yet getting the 3rd Covid shot.

_____________________________

Economy -

According to new Housing data just out: “YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in December, remaining the same from the previous month.

Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022. Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
OBSERVATION - IMHO this reflects an increase in mortagage rates in anticipation of the Fed increasing its rates. Housing prices are so high that even small increases in interest rates are going to hammer the over inflated housing market - making purchases out of reach for most americans.

Increasing concern that gasoline prices will skyrocket from Ukraine / Russian spinoff and reluctance by OPEC to increase production rates. Oil now expected to exceed $110 / barrel for an extended period this summer.

______________________________

Biden watch -

Showing up an hour-and-a-half late to what was originally described as an urgent news conference, the president took to the podium and drowsily slurring his words in an attempt to deliver a response. Observers and foreign leaders were less than impressed by biden’s presentation.
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

A new poll from Trafalgar Group and Convention of States Action shows that 55% of likely general election voters disapprove of Trudeau’s handling of the protesters. Democrats overwhelmingly favored Trudeau’s response with 65% approval to 17% disapproval. Republican responses were weighted even more heavily against Trudeau, however, with 87% of likely GOP voters disapproving to just 8% approving.
OBSERVATION - Sharpening of the divide between right and left. The tyrannical repressive measures supported by democrats shouldn’t be a surprise since leftists have been expressing similar for the past couple years in an increasingly open manner.

Information increasing indicating that Antifa elements will oppose the Trucker Freedom Convoy when it reaches DC. Some further rumblings suggest that there will be actions against is as it passes thru Antifa stronghold cities.
___________________________________

Domestic Terror -

The National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) has identified 50 Afghan refugees in the United States who are known or suspected terrorists. The national security threat emerged due to a lack of information sharing between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Department of Defense (DOD) for all biometric and contextual data. These Afghans are believed to have been released into the US and are now unlocatable.
_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The military is moving F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and a battalion of 20 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from Germany, as well as 800 soldiers from Italy, to Baltic states and Poland in an attempt to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.

_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

According to officials, no escalation in cyber activity from Russia have been noted. Western officials say recent Russian cyber activity against Ukraine has been “consistent with a previous pattern”.

_________________________________

China -

Taiwan’s president on Wednesday condemned Russia for ordering troops into Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine, and claimed the crisis was being used to hurt morale on the island, which has long been under the threat of a Chinese invasion

On Monday, China’s Foreign Minister announced plans to sanction U.S. defense contractors Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin. The announcement followed a $100m deal approved by the US for maintenance of Taiwan’s missile defense systems by the two companies.
____________________________________

North Korea -

Relatively quiet following a surge in missile launches.
__________________________________

Japan -

Japan to impose sanctions on Russia amid Ukraine crisis: PM Kishida “(Japan) will ban exports to and imports from the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as the issuance and trading of new Russian sovereign bonds in Japan”

____________________________________

Russia - T-?

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia maintains the capability to launch a major offensive on short notice. Forward stationing of logistics continues to be noted.

Russia is now claiming that the entire Dombass region, including that still under Ukraine control, belong to these new ‘republics’ , creating another excuse for Russian invasion. How far and fast western nations invoke sanctions along with military redeployments will drive Putin’s cost benefit analysis. However, all indicators show Russia has taken all the major steps necessary to attack.

OTOH the clock is ticking for Putin as troops cannot maintain such a level of alert / battle preparations indefinitely and weather is warming up, making cross country maneuvering (along with associated logistic support) increasingly problematical. Another factor is the call up of Ukraine reserves - generally considered to be well trained - that can bulk Ukraine ground forces to a near parity with deployed Russian ground forces. Even though standard doctrine posits that an offensive needs a much larger numeric superiority to over come a set defense, I’m not sure how much Russia’s air superiority can swing the battle on the ground under spring weather conditions. The longer Putin delays, the more ready Ukraine forces become.

All these things factored in my guess is that his window of attack has likely narrowed to less than sometime in the next two weeks.

********

Putin has released his updated demands to deescalate the situation. Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed after seizing it from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes. He hasn’t backed off his other demands for NATO withdrawal from the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Putin recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regions. The Kremlin then raised the stakes further by saying that recognition extends even to the large parts of those two regions now held by Ukrainian forces, including the major Azov Sea port of Mariupol.
OBSERVATION - I noted yesterday that expanded claims by separatist forces would cause difficulties and the word from the Kremlin only reinforces the prospect of continued conflict.

Australia targeted financial sanctions and travel bans in a first batch of measures, while New Zealand summoned Russia’s envoy to express its condemnation

The effects of US and European economic sanctions on Russia’s decision process are yet to be seen. However, it seems certain that Putin factored those into his decision to acknowledge independence of separatist areas yesterday. Putin noted that that any sanctions were two edged and that Russia has some strong cards to play as a major petroleum/natural gas producer.

Three Russian guided-missile cruisers have been arrayed across the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to counter three NATO carrier strike groups, causing concern in the Pentagon, a U.S. defense official told USNI News on Tuesday.
As of Monday, the three Slava-class cruisers were operating in and around the Aegean Sea – RTS Moskva (121) in the Black Sea, RFS Varyag (011) south of Italy and RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) off the coast of Syria, near Russia’s naval base in Tartus.
The three 11,500-ton Slavas were designed around launchers that can hold 16 SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missiles – each about the size of a telephone pole. Developed in the 1970s, the Slavas and the Sandboxes were designed to take on U.S. and NATO aircraft carriers by overwhelming them with a barrage of high-speed cruise missiles to sink ships.
he U.S. has surged additional guided-missile cruiser and destroyers to U.S. 6th Fleet. As of Tuesday, the U.S. has about a dozen guided-missile warships operating in the region, USNI News understands.
Four East Coast guided-missile destroyers – USS Donald Cook (DDG-75), USS Mitscher (DDG-57), USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Gonzalez (DDG-66) – left the U.S. last month as independent deployers.
“Throughout their deployment, they will participate in a range of maritime activities in support of the U.S. 6th Fleet and our NATO allies,” the Navy told USNI News.
Those ships joined the forward-deployed USS Ross (DDG-71), USS Roosevelt (DDG-80), USS Porter (DDG-78) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), and the escorts of the Harry S. Truman CSG.
While the Russian weapons appear imposing, the Aegis cruisers and destroyers have more sophisticated missile defense systems that outmatch the 1970s and 1980s-era Russian weapons. The risk to the U.S. and NATO ships is if the missile defenders are overwhelmed with the number of weapons the Russians fire and the U.S. and NATO ships run out of interceptors, USNI News understands. More at -
https://news.usni.org/2022/02/22/russian-navy-cruisers-positioned-to-counter-u-s-french-and-italian-carrier-groups-in-the-mediterranean

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

A state of emergency has been declared for Ukraine and reservists are being called up. Ukraine is capable of mobilizing a total of between 300,000 and 400,000 experienced reservists, in addition to 250,000-strong active service Armed Forces. The call-up came as Ukraine’s parliament voted to approve a draft law which gives permission to Ukrainians to carry firearms and act in self-defence.

Reuters: The flag has been taken down at the Russian Embassy in Kyiv. All Russian diplomatic missions in Ukraine are being evacuated - Representative of Russian Embassy in Kyiv

Ukraine urges citizens to leave Russia ‘immediately’: ministry

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday that any Russian troops deployed to eastern Ukraine would not be “peacekeepers” as Moscow has asserted and rejected President Putin’s claim that a genocide of ethnic Russians was being committed there

___________________________________

Belarus -

Biden “In response to Russia’s admission that it will not withdraw its forces from Belarus, I have authorized the additional movements of U.S. forces and equipment already stationed in Europe, to strengthen our Baltic allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

_______________________________________

Poland -

Poland’s PM Mora Wieckim on sanctions: very very mild, soft package, we need more decisive action but now we are in a different place, in a state of heightened alert we see many steps indicating that there will be another Russian attack
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

The Polish and Lithuanian presidents said in a joint statement that they support Ukraine being granted EU candidate status

In recent weeks, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, allies have deployed thousands of additional troops to the eastern part of the Alliance and placed more on standby:
“We have over 100 jets at high alert and there are more than 120 Allied ships at sea, from the High North to the Mediterranean.”

____________________________________

Israel -

Israeli foreign ministry releases first statement on the Russian invasion to Ukraine: “We share the international concern about the escalation, support Ukraine territorial integrity and sovereignty and willing to give Ukraine humanitarian assistance”
OBSERVATION - Israel has been cooperating with Russia in Syria when targeting Hezebollah facilities in order to avoid a direct conflict.

Israeli missile strikes overnight, targeted the positions of pro-Assad forces and the Iranian militias in Quneitra, southern Syria. These positions were a few observation points that served Hezbollah for gathering intelligence on Israeli military sites in northern Israel as part of the Golan File.
____________________________________

Iran -

The Iranian Parliament on Feb. 20 issued negotiation conditions to re-start nuclear talks with the U.S. and European diplomats. The IRNA news agency, Tehran’s official party-line information outlet, reported that 250 of the 290 parliamentarians published a letter for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to sign that laid out demands for Iran’s participation in the stalled 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iran’s parliament demands the talks on halting Tehran’s nuclear program – which would involve envoys from Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, and United States — can have no pre-conditions, but Iran can have six. Among the Iranian prerequisites are that no country can back out of a “restored” agreement and there can be no renewal of sanctions or “snapback mechanism” where sanctions can be put in place once lifted. That means that any terms and conditions arrived at for a new agreement cannot be enforced. That’s what Iran wants. With the JCPOA, there was little in the way of enforcement mechanisms.

OBSERVATION - Iran knows the weakness in the west under biden and thinks it can write its own ticket. They are probably correct as they watch US/NATO action surrounding the Ukraine / Russia crisis.
__________________________________

Lebanon -

Lebanese security forces have foiled plans by militants linked to Islamic State to carry out three suicide attacks in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the interior minister said on Wednesday. The plans for the attacks involved rocket-propelled grenades and gun fire as well as suicide vests rigged with explosives that would have killed many people, minister Bassam Mawlawi said.
The area is a support base of the Shiite Iran-backed Hezbollah group, which has fought mainly Sunni militants, including Islamic State, during Syria’s civil war.

OBSERVATION - ISIS is rising again across the region
__________________________________

Syria -

See Israel above on overnight missile strikes
__________________________________

Black Swans -

The 25th solar cycle is supposed to be quiet, but there was a suspicion that it would not be like the previous cycle, which occurred between 2008 and 2019. On T February 15 a solar flair was observed that stretched millions of kilometers into space and released the largest coronal mass ejection (CME) ever seen to date. Had this CME been directed towards earth, a solar storm would have exceeded the infamous Carrington event of the 1800’s, likely severely damaging the global power grid.
I noted some scoffing on FR threads over the threat posed by solar CME impacts. They forget a much smaller CME strike too out Ontario’s power grid in the 80’s and an even smaller CME knocking most of SPACEEX internet satellites out of orbit. We don’t really know what a major CME will do to our power grid.