Replies

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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Efforts growing for a nation wide general trucker strike.
- The federal government says the RCMP is working with financial institutions to “unfreeze” bank accounts locked by emergency orders that targeted people who organized, participated in, or donated to the so-called Freedom Convoy blockades.

US convoy -
- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has authorized an order to mobilize as many as 700 D.C. National Guard members ahead of an upcoming trucker convoy to the nation’s capital. Austin also approved a request from the USCP for assistance for up to 300 National Guard troops from outside D.C. to assist at designated traffic posts and select Capitol entry points starting no later than 7 a.m., on Saturday, February 26.
- Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) tweeted an article about the American convoy on its way to D.C. by saying, “Perfect time to impound and give the trucks to small trucking companies looking to expand their business.”
- Indicators that Antifa will attempt to interfere with the protest.
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Wuhan virus -

France just deactivated nearly 4 MILLION vax passports for people who haven’t got their booster shot yet. This is due to a change in the booster time frame. The original timeframe said you’d have 7 months to get a Covid booster, and then, apparently overnight, they changed the timeframe down to 4 months, meaning that 4 million Frenchmen were suddenly exiled from society for not yet getting the 3rd Covid shot.

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Economy -

According to new Housing data just out: “YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in December, remaining the same from the previous month.

Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022. Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
OBSERVATION - IMHO this reflects an increase in mortagage rates in anticipation of the Fed increasing its rates. Housing prices are so high that even small increases in interest rates are going to hammer the over inflated housing market - making purchases out of reach for most americans.

Increasing concern that gasoline prices will skyrocket from Ukraine / Russian spinoff and reluctance by OPEC to increase production rates. Oil now expected to exceed $110 / barrel for an extended period this summer.

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Biden watch -

Showing up an hour-and-a-half late to what was originally described as an urgent news conference, the president took to the podium and drowsily slurring his words in an attempt to deliver a response. Observers and foreign leaders were less than impressed by biden’s presentation.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

A new poll from Trafalgar Group and Convention of States Action shows that 55% of likely general election voters disapprove of Trudeau’s handling of the protesters. Democrats overwhelmingly favored Trudeau’s response with 65% approval to 17% disapproval. Republican responses were weighted even more heavily against Trudeau, however, with 87% of likely GOP voters disapproving to just 8% approving.
OBSERVATION - Sharpening of the divide between right and left. The tyrannical repressive measures supported by democrats shouldn’t be a surprise since leftists have been expressing similar for the past couple years in an increasingly open manner.

Information increasing indicating that Antifa elements will oppose the Trucker Freedom Convoy when it reaches DC. Some further rumblings suggest that there will be actions against is as it passes thru Antifa stronghold cities.
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Domestic Terror -

The National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) has identified 50 Afghan refugees in the United States who are known or suspected terrorists. The national security threat emerged due to a lack of information sharing between the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Department of Defense (DOD) for all biometric and contextual data. These Afghans are believed to have been released into the US and are now unlocatable.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The military is moving F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and a battalion of 20 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters from Germany, as well as 800 soldiers from Italy, to Baltic states and Poland in an attempt to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.

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Cyber Warfare -

According to officials, no escalation in cyber activity from Russia have been noted. Western officials say recent Russian cyber activity against Ukraine has been “consistent with a previous pattern”.

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China -

Taiwan’s president on Wednesday condemned Russia for ordering troops into Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine, and claimed the crisis was being used to hurt morale on the island, which has long been under the threat of a Chinese invasion

On Monday, China’s Foreign Minister announced plans to sanction U.S. defense contractors Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin. The announcement followed a $100m deal approved by the US for maintenance of Taiwan’s missile defense systems by the two companies.
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North Korea -

Relatively quiet following a surge in missile launches.
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Japan -

Japan to impose sanctions on Russia amid Ukraine crisis: PM Kishida “(Japan) will ban exports to and imports from the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as well as the issuance and trading of new Russian sovereign bonds in Japan”

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Russia - T-?

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid. So-called peacekeepers are likely to come in contact with Ukrainian military forces, increasing the likelihood of large-scale combat operations.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia maintains the capability to launch a major offensive on short notice. Forward stationing of logistics continues to be noted.

Russia is now claiming that the entire Dombass region, including that still under Ukraine control, belong to these new ‘republics’ , creating another excuse for Russian invasion. How far and fast western nations invoke sanctions along with military redeployments will drive Putin’s cost benefit analysis. However, all indicators show Russia has taken all the major steps necessary to attack.

OTOH the clock is ticking for Putin as troops cannot maintain such a level of alert / battle preparations indefinitely and weather is warming up, making cross country maneuvering (along with associated logistic support) increasingly problematical. Another factor is the call up of Ukraine reserves - generally considered to be well trained - that can bulk Ukraine ground forces to a near parity with deployed Russian ground forces. Even though standard doctrine posits that an offensive needs a much larger numeric superiority to over come a set defense, I’m not sure how much Russia’s air superiority can swing the battle on the ground under spring weather conditions. The longer Putin delays, the more ready Ukraine forces become.

All these things factored in my guess is that his window of attack has likely narrowed to less than sometime in the next two weeks.

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Putin has released his updated demands to deescalate the situation. Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed after seizing it from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes. He hasn’t backed off his other demands for NATO withdrawal from the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Putin recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk separatist regions. The Kremlin then raised the stakes further by saying that recognition extends even to the large parts of those two regions now held by Ukrainian forces, including the major Azov Sea port of Mariupol.
OBSERVATION - I noted yesterday that expanded claims by separatist forces would cause difficulties and the word from the Kremlin only reinforces the prospect of continued conflict.

Australia targeted financial sanctions and travel bans in a first batch of measures, while New Zealand summoned Russia’s envoy to express its condemnation

The effects of US and European economic sanctions on Russia’s decision process are yet to be seen. However, it seems certain that Putin factored those into his decision to acknowledge independence of separatist areas yesterday. Putin noted that that any sanctions were two edged and that Russia has some strong cards to play as a major petroleum/natural gas producer.

Three Russian guided-missile cruisers have been arrayed across the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to counter three NATO carrier strike groups, causing concern in the Pentagon, a U.S. defense official told USNI News on Tuesday.
As of Monday, the three Slava-class cruisers were operating in and around the Aegean Sea – RTS Moskva (121) in the Black Sea, RFS Varyag (011) south of Italy and RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) off the coast of Syria, near Russia’s naval base in Tartus.
The three 11,500-ton Slavas were designed around launchers that can hold 16 SS-N-12 Sandbox anti-ship cruise missiles – each about the size of a telephone pole. Developed in the 1970s, the Slavas and the Sandboxes were designed to take on U.S. and NATO aircraft carriers by overwhelming them with a barrage of high-speed cruise missiles to sink ships.
he U.S. has surged additional guided-missile cruiser and destroyers to U.S. 6th Fleet. As of Tuesday, the U.S. has about a dozen guided-missile warships operating in the region, USNI News understands.
Four East Coast guided-missile destroyers – USS Donald Cook (DDG-75), USS Mitscher (DDG-57), USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) and USS Gonzalez (DDG-66) – left the U.S. last month as independent deployers.
“Throughout their deployment, they will participate in a range of maritime activities in support of the U.S. 6th Fleet and our NATO allies,” the Navy told USNI News.
Those ships joined the forward-deployed USS Ross (DDG-71), USS Roosevelt (DDG-80), USS Porter (DDG-78) and USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), and the escorts of the Harry S. Truman CSG.
While the Russian weapons appear imposing, the Aegis cruisers and destroyers have more sophisticated missile defense systems that outmatch the 1970s and 1980s-era Russian weapons. The risk to the U.S. and NATO ships is if the missile defenders are overwhelmed with the number of weapons the Russians fire and the U.S. and NATO ships run out of interceptors, USNI News understands. More at -
https://news.usni.org/2022/02/22/russian-navy-cruisers-positioned-to-counter-u-s-french-and-italian-carrier-groups-in-the-mediterranean

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

A state of emergency has been declared for Ukraine and reservists are being called up. Ukraine is capable of mobilizing a total of between 300,000 and 400,000 experienced reservists, in addition to 250,000-strong active service Armed Forces. The call-up came as Ukraine’s parliament voted to approve a draft law which gives permission to Ukrainians to carry firearms and act in self-defence.

Reuters: The flag has been taken down at the Russian Embassy in Kyiv. All Russian diplomatic missions in Ukraine are being evacuated - Representative of Russian Embassy in Kyiv

Ukraine urges citizens to leave Russia ‘immediately’: ministry

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday that any Russian troops deployed to eastern Ukraine would not be “peacekeepers” as Moscow has asserted and rejected President Putin’s claim that a genocide of ethnic Russians was being committed there

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Belarus -

Biden “In response to Russia’s admission that it will not withdraw its forces from Belarus, I have authorized the additional movements of U.S. forces and equipment already stationed in Europe, to strengthen our Baltic allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

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Poland -

Poland’s PM Mora Wieckim on sanctions: very very mild, soft package, we need more decisive action but now we are in a different place, in a state of heightened alert we see many steps indicating that there will be another Russian attack
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Europe / NATO General -

The Polish and Lithuanian presidents said in a joint statement that they support Ukraine being granted EU candidate status

In recent weeks, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, allies have deployed thousands of additional troops to the eastern part of the Alliance and placed more on standby:
“We have over 100 jets at high alert and there are more than 120 Allied ships at sea, from the High North to the Mediterranean.”

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Israel -

Israeli foreign ministry releases first statement on the Russian invasion to Ukraine: “We share the international concern about the escalation, support Ukraine territorial integrity and sovereignty and willing to give Ukraine humanitarian assistance”
OBSERVATION - Israel has been cooperating with Russia in Syria when targeting Hezebollah facilities in order to avoid a direct conflict.

Israeli missile strikes overnight, targeted the positions of pro-Assad forces and the Iranian militias in Quneitra, southern Syria. These positions were a few observation points that served Hezbollah for gathering intelligence on Israeli military sites in northern Israel as part of the Golan File.
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Iran -

The Iranian Parliament on Feb. 20 issued negotiation conditions to re-start nuclear talks with the U.S. and European diplomats. The IRNA news agency, Tehran’s official party-line information outlet, reported that 250 of the 290 parliamentarians published a letter for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to sign that laid out demands for Iran’s participation in the stalled 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iran’s parliament demands the talks on halting Tehran’s nuclear program – which would involve envoys from Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, and United States — can have no pre-conditions, but Iran can have six. Among the Iranian prerequisites are that no country can back out of a “restored” agreement and there can be no renewal of sanctions or “snapback mechanism” where sanctions can be put in place once lifted. That means that any terms and conditions arrived at for a new agreement cannot be enforced. That’s what Iran wants. With the JCPOA, there was little in the way of enforcement mechanisms.

OBSERVATION - Iran knows the weakness in the west under biden and thinks it can write its own ticket. They are probably correct as they watch US/NATO action surrounding the Ukraine / Russia crisis.
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Lebanon -

Lebanese security forces have foiled plans by militants linked to Islamic State to carry out three suicide attacks in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the interior minister said on Wednesday. The plans for the attacks involved rocket-propelled grenades and gun fire as well as suicide vests rigged with explosives that would have killed many people, minister Bassam Mawlawi said.
The area is a support base of the Shiite Iran-backed Hezbollah group, which has fought mainly Sunni militants, including Islamic State, during Syria’s civil war.

OBSERVATION - ISIS is rising again across the region
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Syria -

See Israel above on overnight missile strikes
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Black Swans -

The 25th solar cycle is supposed to be quiet, but there was a suspicion that it would not be like the previous cycle, which occurred between 2008 and 2019. On T February 15 a solar flair was observed that stretched millions of kilometers into space and released the largest coronal mass ejection (CME) ever seen to date. Had this CME been directed towards earth, a solar storm would have exceeded the infamous Carrington event of the 1800’s, likely severely damaging the global power grid.
I noted some scoffing on FR threads over the threat posed by solar CME impacts. They forget a much smaller CME strike too out Ontario’s power grid in the 80’s and an even smaller CME knocking most of SPACEEX internet satellites out of orbit. We don’t really know what a major CME will do to our power grid.

I wish I could put together a clearer picture of what’s happening in Ukraine but the flood of information and the chaotic, fluid nature of the conflict could occupy dozens of analysts.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Waiting to see what the GGR does to exploit the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Trudeau surprisingly withdrew the Emergency Act saying it was no longer needed to address the protests. Two thoughts on why the sudden change. 1) The freeze on bank accounts created a rush on banks and threatened a crash of the system as investors took money out or refused to make deposits (most likely) or 2) he got word that the senate would not support his declaration.

US convoy -
- The “People’s Convoy,” is calling for the immediate lifting of the national emergency declared in response to the pandemic

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Economy -

Dow is in crash mode following Russian attack, down at one time over 800 points. Oil has shot over $100/barrel for the first time since 2014. Global markets crashing as well.

JPMorgan’s commodity desk is warning of skyrocketing prices as a result of the Ukraine / Russia war. JPM recently predicted full out war could lead to $150 oil and a global recession driven by soaring inflation.

The US imports nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Russia, should Russia cut off that supply, prices will go even higher.

In the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) latest report, January came back as the lowest month for crude oil inventories since August 2018. Last month, the US was a net importer of petroleum, bringing in 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) from foreign nations.

The Fed may change its approach to raising interest rates as a result of the global effects and impacts to the US economy from the conflict. . Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said earlier this week that the situation between Russia and Ukraine is a “downward risk to economic output.”

Overnight wheat prices have surged past nine-year highs, amid concerns of war between two of the world’s biggest exporters, Russia and Ukraine.

The White House hinted Tuesday that President Joe Biden is considering another release of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserves, as gas prices continue to rise. White House Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh said Biden would coordinate with major energy consumers to address higher energy prices, after the president announced a “first tranche” of sanctions against Russia after Vladimir Putin moved into Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - The last strategic reserve release did absolutely nothing to control prices.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Del Rio Sector of the Texas Border has experienced a nearly 75 percent increase in unaccompanied minors attempting to enter the U.S. illegally under the Biden White House.
These numbers also follow extensive reports of convicted criminals – including convicted murderers, rapists, and pedophiles – seeking entry into the U.S. through President Joe Biden’s open borders. The trends found in the Del Rio Sector appear to replicate across the other 19 segments of the U.S. border, as attempted crossings have hit an all-time high.

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Biden watch -

Biden is expected to address the nation later on Thursday on the Russian war against Ukraine.

Democrats countering a democrat president SOTU?
Progressive Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan will be delivering a response to President Biden’s State of the Union address next week.
Tlaib, a member of the so-called “Squad” of progressive and diverse Democratic lawmakers in Congress, will give her address on behalf of the left-wing Workers Families Party, the group announced on Wednesday.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

RUMINT. . . . RUMINT. . . . Report that United States is moving government officials IN THE UNITED STATES to safety/bunkers. Looking to confirm.
OBSERVATION - Uncertainty on the likelihood of a Russian strategic strike against US, continuation of operations (CONOPS) components may well have been initiated. At this stage this would be a precautionary action, not one in response to an imminent attack.
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Cyber Warfare -

Yesterday when I noted no significant cyber attacks, an hour later Russia launched their cyberattacks against Ukraine. Lots of global cyberattacks going on right making OSINT on the Russian attack very difficult.

US and EU on heightened alert for Russian source cyberattacks that are supporting the Russian offensive. More severe sanctions by the west could kick off a Russian cyber offensive.

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China -

China is assessing the US/EU responses to the Russian offensive against Ukraine. No specific intelligence indicators of an impending attack against Taiwan though some think China will initially test the waters by capturing some outlying islands before attempting to capture Taiwan directly.

On Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister released a statement saying that Taiwan is not Ukraine and has always been a part of China. In response to the statement, Taiwan’s President called for increased vigilance and for the island nation to beef up its defenses against a potential invasion by China.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

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Summary of events -

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine in a surprise television announcement at roughly 6:00 a.m. Moscow time, 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The Russian dictator described the unprovoked attack as a “special military operation for the de-Militarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine.”
He accused Ukraine of “genocide” for attacking the two new “independent republics” he unilaterally conjured into existence on Monday.
Putin bizarrely claimed Russia’s plans “do not include occupation of Ukrainian territory” and “we are not going to impose anything on anyone by force,”
One of the primary goals was to totally ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine.
Putin warned the nations of the world not to interfere or they would face severe consequences.

Confusion of war and garbled internet connections make up to date postings of Russia progress very difficult to assess. The tempo of the current operation will make it nearly impossible for me to stay on top of in a timely manner as well. Best I can do until the situation changes is to try to identify key trends and actions.

Russian MOEX Index down 48% since the start of combat. Ruble is down over 25%. headed to its lowest level ever.

Russian Defense Ministry (unconfirmed) - Officials who allowed the distribution of weapons to the civilian population of Kiev will be tried by a military tribunal as war criminals and shot on sight

Antiwar protests have broken out in Moscow - developing.

ASSESSMENT OF PUTIN’S GOALS
Statement of demilitarizing the country strongly infers a nation wide conquering of Ukraine. His statement on not including an occupation is propaganda and a lie - he cannot achieve the first without the second.
The big question is Putin’s logistics for the operation and Ukraine resistance. I can easily see the Russia offensive lasting for at least a week or more. World actions to punish Russia and Ukraine resistance could cause it to end prematurely. The strong push of forces from Belarus into the Kyiv area suggest an attempt to force Kyiv to capitulate as early as possible. The longer the combat lasts, the harder his his economy will be and support will drop at home.
I see Russia hard pressed to disarm Ukraine without physically controlling the entire country.

ASSESSMENT OF US/GLOBAL RESPONSE -
There are harsher economic sanctions that the US/world can invoke. The most serious is to ban Russia from an electronic network that processes international financial transactions. This would seize most of the Russian economy. Now Russia’s ‘peace’ pact with China could mitigate some of this, it may not be sufficient to prevent severe economic impacts. This may cause Putin to launch major cyber attacks against the US and EU, which may cause further retaliation.

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Ukraine -

The war officially stated with extensive DOS and hacking attacks on Ukraine govt and finance/ bank sites. Immediately after Putin’s announcement of a ‘special operation’ rockets struck Kyiv.
As of 8 hours ago Russian ground military activity was concentrated west of a line from Kyiv to Odesa. Places east of that line are being hit pretty hard.

Confusion of war and garbled internet connections make up to date postings of Russia progress very difficult to assess.

Attack axises appear to be north out of Crimea, south out of Belarus and westward thru the separatist held regions. Rumors of an airborne operation in the northern area and amphibious operation in the Sea of Azmov and against the Odessa region. Also an large helicopter operation to capture an airport north of Kyiv

Updated summary of action
1. Strikes by long range missile across Ukraine, targeting airports, radars, ammo depots & warehouses
2. Ground pushes towards Kyiv from Belarus, Kharkiv & up from Crimea.
3. Very large Russian air assault on Hostomel air base, just NW of Kyiv. Helicopters seen over the town with some shot down.

NOTE - Many of the major rocket (and now airstrikes) are targeting C3, munitions depots and other strategic level targets.

Russian forces have reportedly taken Kherson and the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in Kherson region of Ukraine. Located immediately north of Crimea. May be part of Russian desire to restore water source for Crimea.

Some reports of Russian forces from Crimea are at least 60 km deep into Ukraine.

Massive movement of Ukraine civilians to the western portions of the country.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Russia has successfully made some gains, but it appears that the Ukraine defense is stiffening and beginning to inflict serious casualties on Russian forces. See follow on post for a map indicating some of the early assaults.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/24/12/54599425-10545389-image-a-175_1645706229880.jpg

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Belarus -

Belarus leader says his army not taking part in Ukraine invasion. However there is RUMINT that Belarus forces report very weak resistance in their push south towards Kyiv. Could be referring to Russian forces moving from Belarus. Can’t confirm at this time.

It has been confirmed that Russia launched rockets and missiles from Belarus territory into Ukraine.
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Poland -

Witnesses reporting sirens sounding in the Polish town of Medyka, a border crossing with Ukraine.

Poland aims to modernize and expand its armed forces into one of the strongest in NATO, under a new homeland defense proposal backed by the government on Tuesday. Outlining the plan to reporters, Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński said the proposed homeland defense bill was designed to “create the legal basis and financial instruments for a radical expansion of Poland’s armed forces in terms of both manpower and firepower.” Under the bill, Poland’s armed forces are expected to increase to about 300,000 troops, including 250,000 career soldiers,.
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Europe / NATO General -

Eastern European members of NATO are invoking Article 4, which means urgent consultations on military plans for the alliance. There is increasing concerns that Putin has them in his sights for conquering after consolidating his forces in Ukraine. With Belarus essentially Russian territory, Russian military working with Belarus military in preparation for the Ukraine invasion, a similar operation against the Baltics could occur. Time frame may be in a year or more - depending on how quickly they can subdue Ukraine.

NATO will activate its defensive Response Force in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.
The decision was made by NATO’s North Atlantic Council. “Peace on our continent has been shattered,” Stoltenberg said. “We now have war in Europe on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history.”

Moldova closes airspace, raises threat level to yellow after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Russian forces launched cruse missiles from Moldovian territory.

Lithuanian President declares a state of emergency and is sending the military to “defend the border”

Britain’s biggest domestic lender Lloyds said on Thursday it was on “heightened alert” for cyberattacks from Russia as the crisis in Ukraine has worsened.
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Israel -

Foreign Minister Lapid: Israel not bound by nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will ‘defend itself by itself.’

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Turkey -

Ukraine’s Embassy in Turkey has requested Turkey close the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits for Russian warships. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara has control over the straits and can limit warship passages during wartime or if threatened.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convenes emergency meeting on security.

OBSERVATION - Turkey’s had a love/hate relationship with Russia over the past couple years, supporting proxy forces against russian proxy forces in several areas of the world. So far they have avoided direct confrontations. Closing of the straits would result in a potential direct confrontation.
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