Free Republic

Tuesday’s IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll (TIPP), released just before the last debate, was another example of a headline that was not supported by its accompanying message. While TIPP showed Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney 47.4%/ 43.4% that leaves 9.8 points of undecided. The statistical reality is that 80% of the undecided vote will go to the challenger giving Romney 51.24%; but it gets worse for Obama. Obama wins the Northeast 48/40 but the 10% undecided will change a region that should be “locked up” into one requiring attention. TIPP also shows Obama’s numbers with all age groups...

Barack Obama leads 46/44 in new Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll. Well that’s what they are saying anyway. The TIPP poll shows Mitt Romney has closed up a 7 point deficit …..TIPP’s accompanying internals that supports its headline numbers. From the earliest days of this campaign the truth of Barack Obama’s numbers has remained the same: he is not winning any group he lost and not doing better with any group he did win in 2008. These numbers are black and white and not subject to interpretation. The sampling errors that seem to be build-in to all of today’s...

The table below shows the results of the final TIPP Tracking Poll. Note that this is after allocating the undecided vote.Final TIPP Poll Estimate Release Date Bush Kerry Nader Other Spread November 2 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% 0.8% +2.1 Bush A total of 4.4 percentage points were allocated to Bush, Kerry, Nader and other candidates in the manner shown below. Allocated to-------> Bush Kerry Nader Other Undecided Vote 1.5% 2.7% 0.2% 0% The table below shows results for a three-way race between Republican George W. Bush, Democrat John Kerry and Independent Ralph Nader, among likely voters. Note that this is before...

A statement by the National Council on Public Polls' Polling Review Board January 3, 2001 PRESIDENTIAL POLL PERFORMANCE 2000 The accuracy of the election projections based on the pre-election polls of 2000 was surpassed only by the polls of 1976 and 1960, according to a study release today by the National Council on Public Polls. This year's final polls had an average error of 1.1 percentage points on the estimates for George W. Bush and Al Gore. The error on the third place finisher, Ralph Nader, was 1.3 percentage points. These results were based on the work of 10 polling...

Three-Man Race (with leaners) Release Date Bush Kerry Nader Undecided Spread October 24 49% 43% 2% 6% +6 Bush Two-Man Race Release Date Bush Kerry Undecided Spread October 24 47% 43% 11% +4 Bush