Posted on 10/24/2012 12:23:01 PM PDT by jmaroneps37
Tuesday’s IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll (TIPP), released just before the last debate, was another example of a headline that was not supported by its accompanying message.
While TIPP showed Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney 47.4%/ 43.4% that leaves 9.8 points of undecided. The statistical reality is that 80% of the undecided vote will go to the challenger giving Romney 51.24%; but it gets worse for Obama.
Obama wins the Northeast 48/40 but the 10% undecided will change a region that should be “locked up” into one requiring attention.
TIPP also shows Obama’s numbers with all age groups down from what he got in 2008, even females are failing to step up for him. He is down 4 points and seeing 7 points of undecided with women. He’s off 7 points with men who are also 7% undecided.
In order to get Blacks up to even 86% (they gave Obama 95% in 2008) TIPP had to mix in Hispanics – this is not good news for Obama.
The Party support TIPP reported … very suspect. They say Romney is getting just 86% of Republicans to support him.
No credible poll shows Republican support for Romney at less than 91% and most set it at 92%. TIPP’s report that Independents support Romney by just 11 points with 13 points of undecided voters is also very suspect.
Notwithstanding the twisted numbers TIPP uses it still managed to fall on the great Democrat “electoral third rail” – the Catholic vote. Ten days ago TIPP reported Barack Obama held a 46/43 lead among Catholic voters.
That lead is gone. "...losing the Catholic vote 49/41 – a 12 point turnaround; more than one point a day.
…no Democrat ever been elected president without... Catholic vote….
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
The turnaround in the Catholic vote is stunning.
“None of these polls are applying the huge enthusiasm gap just yet, but they will have to in a few days.”
Are you certain they will?
I am mystified that TIPP/IBD business people would be pulling for a traitorous, business-hating bum like Obama.
Obama wins most of the headlines on polls, but loses the internals
That's how they hope to keep Axlerod's federal lawsuit squad away.
Twitter is reporting that IBD/TIPP hard-weights to 2008 party identification and turnout, so Romney will never lead there. I haven’t found confirmation of that, but I haven’t looked either.
If you apply party identification from Gallup. Romney is up by about a point in that poll
http://pollmashing.com/poll/8/B1C7359A-EB91-D2A3-A513-D44EDDB1B4F3#.UIhPb2l24iU
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