Free Republic

Japan has lost its spot as the world’s third-largest economy to Germany, as the Asian giant unexpectedly slipped into recession. Once the second-largest economy in the world, Japan reported two consecutive quarters of contraction on Thursday — falling 0.4% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after a revised 3.3% contraction in the third quarter. Fourth-quarter GDP sharply missed forecasts for 1.4% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. A recession is broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP slipped 0.1%, compared with a 0.3% rise expected in the Reuters poll. For the...

The global economic landscape is facing turbulent times, with recessionary waves hitting major economies. Japan recently slipped into recession for the second quarter in a row, catching many by surprise. Meanwhile, the UK has officially entered a technical recession, marking a challenging period for economies worldwide. The signs are evident not just in economic data but also in the surge of layoffs that have become a common theme in recent months. Industry giants such as Twitch, Hasbro, and Spotify are among those announcing significant workforce reductions. Over 100,000 individuals have been affected by these layoffs in the first few months...

The last time the phrase “soft landing” was this popular on the internet was on the eve of the largest financial crisis the world has ever seen. The idea behind an economic soft landing is that the central bank (for the United States, the Federal Reserve) is able to bring inflation from an overheated economy under control by increasing interest rates without producing a recession or a collapse of the financial markets. This is what markets desperately long for in early 2024 and are trying to manifest by simply repeating it as a mantra and believing in it hard enough....

How can anyone out there possibly believe that the U.S. economy is doing well? As you will see below, the number of homeless Americans has risen to the highest level ever recorded, and large companies all over the country are laying off workers in droves. As I have discussed previously, the number of Americans that were laid off in 2023 jumped 98 percent compared to the year before, and now during the first month of 2024 it feels like we are being hit by a tsunami of layoffs. It literally seems like someone has turned a fire hose on, but...

Over the past two years, the Biden administration has repeatedly insisted that job growth is amazing, and that the administration has "created" millions of jobs. In reality, of course, much of the job growth that did exist was the predictable job growth that came with the end of forced business closures and lockdowns. Job growth was also fueled by rising aggregate demand fueled by runaway growth in government spending. After all, during 2020 and 2021, the regime's easy money policies meant that the central bank and private banks created approximately seven trillion dollars during that period. Since early 2021, however,...

In 61 years on this earth, I have never needed an oscillating multitool until now. But I’m working on a project that requires one (for cutting away a couple inches of baseboard on either side of a door, to accommodate door replacement and new casing). So, I headed to our local Walmart. I will probably only use it for this project and never need it again, so I didn’t need to spend much. I found four options: a $20 multitool, a $35 model, a $45 model, and a $70 model. Different brands, different power levels, probably different quality levels, but...

The press reports that inflation in the United States isn’t doing too bad; it just inched up a bit in December, 2023 – to about 3.4 percent, year over year. That means, prices only rose by about 3.4 percent from December, 2022 through December 2023. Considering the fact that we were looking at double-digit inflation in the first two years of the Biden-Harris regime, inflation at only 3.4 percent looks good, at first glance. Finally – the regime tells us – prices are getting back to normal again. Maybe it’ll even return to a proper 2 percent eventually; won’t that...

In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply. The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a “soft landing” is at hand. However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought.To understand why such is the case, we must first review why the current economic environment remains stronger than anticipated. In mid-2023, we discussed how the massive monetary infusions supported economic activity, and we were experiencing a “manufacturing” recession but not an economic one.“In 2011, the world faced a manufacturing shutdown as...

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory, 2024 economy, looming bank regulations and artificial intelligence. https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6344549070112 (RECESSION??)

The 19.6% of office space that isn’t leased is the highest since at least 1979 ... America’s offices are emptier than at any point in at least four decades, reflecting years of overbuilding and shifting work habits that were accelerated by the pandemic. A staggering 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics, up from 18.8% a year earlier. That is slightly above the previous records of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991 and the highest number since at least 1979, which is as far back as Moody’s data...

A staggering 96% of Americans express deep worry about the current economic landscape, according to a survey by Intuit Credit Karma. The surprising link between low unemployment and imminent recessions is now causing widespread anxiety. While historically, a low unemployment rate signals a robust economy, recent data challenges this notion. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the dichotomy, stating, “You don’t have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.” However, a closer look at the chart reveals that unemployment often hits a cyclical low just before a recession hits.

During December, I rarely saw a FedEx delivery trick on the roads in my 80,000+ person town, rarely a UPS truck, maybe a few Amazon trucks every once in a while. The real economy seems to be declining fast. From r/Fedexer: We are in a recession. Buckle up. This morning, we were notified by text that the whole morning sort was canceled due to “low volume availability”. It felt so effing good to sleep in, but thats besides the point.

2023 MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS of the Biden-Harris Administration

For the Fed to bring inflation down to 2%, it will take the destruction of a significant amount of wealth – something which an unprecedented pace of aggressive rate hikes has so far failed to do. To the Fed, losing control over price stability is unacceptable (t.me/marketfeed/417246). BlackRock revealed in their 2023 Outlook that “only a deep recession can effectively decouple the global economy from the risks of persistent inflation.” The Fed continues to believe in the Phillips Curve, which plots unemployment as inversely related to inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish turn, suggesting a possible recession or political strategy, has added a layer of complexity to the challenges faced by the Biden administration. President Biden, grappling with declining poll numbers and economic uncertainties, relies on the Fed’s decisions to shape the narrative leading up to November’s elections. Amid positive economic indicators, such as low unemployment and robust growth, the unexpected move towards falling rates strategically aims to bolster the administration’s appeal to voters. The potential of seven rate cuts underscores the severity of the looming economic downturn.

A recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report has cast a shadow over the U.S. economic landscape, predicting a rise in unemployment from the current 3.9% to 4.4% by the end of 2024. This sobering forecast suggests potential job losses for approximately 7.4 million Americans, highlighting the precarious nature of the workforce amidst a contracting gross domestic product (GDP). The CBO attributes the anticipated increase in unemployment to economic adjustments and policy shifts. As the nation grapples with these changes, weaker consumer spending is expected into the next year, along with a contraction in nonresidential investment. These factors are projected to...

By Javier Simon Sponsored by Credible - which is majority owned by Fox Corporation. Credible is solely responsible for the services it provides.Although the Great Recession impacted the savings of American workers across generations, it delivered a major hit to the retirement savings of the youngest Baby Boomers, according to a study by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College. Boomers born in the early 1960s at the end of that generational wave had saved an average of about $280,000 for retirement when they reached their 50s. That’s nearly $50,000 less than their older counterparts born in the...

The stock market is currently experiencing its most overbought conditions since the early days of the pandemic, with traders displaying a fervent appetite for bullish options contracts. This surge in bullish sentiment is reminiscent of the situation leading up to the 2008-09 recession, raising concerns among seasoned analysts. A striking comparison can be drawn between the current market state and the situation in December 2021, particularly in the context of "Min vol." Despite a similar move, this time it took half the duration as volatility rapidly collapsed. The prevailing sentiment suggests that, post-options expiration (OpEx), markets are poised to surge...

It has been over three years since the disastrous Covid economic shutdowns of 2020. And here we are again! US investment-grade bond yields have just had the biggest two-day drop since April 2020. And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y curve remains steeply inverted. Help me Jerome!

The Empire (State) Strikes Out! Contraction (or economic slowdown) is hitting New York State! After three strong ‘beats’ in a row, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey crashed back into contraction, well below expectations in December (from +9.1 to -14.5, +2.0 exp). The drop takes the measure from ‘expansion’ at 7-month-highs to ‘contraction’ at 4-month-lows… Source: Bloomberg The new orders fell six points to -11.3, pointing to a decline in orders for a third consecutive month, and the shipments index fell sixteen points to -6.4, indicating that shipments fell. The unfilled orders index held steady at -24.0, a sign that unfilled...