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I have never seen anything like this. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is deep in inversion and has had a negative slope for 265 straight days. Bidenomics is born under a bad sign! On the commodities front, heating oil is up almost 2% this morning and nickel (an important element in Biden’s green energy mandates) is up 1.78%. On the crypto front, Bitcoin is up 0.47% and Dogecoin is up 5.58%. You can always buy Kamala’s Own Word Salad Dressing!

CNBC’s Jim Cramer told investors on Tuesday that he doesn’t think all the buzz about a recession being just around the corner holds much weight. Looking at major earnings reports that have come out so far, Cramer said several players in key sectors — including homebuilding, banking, and travel and leisure — show that a recession might not be as inevitable as some may think. “Those who cling to the notion that we’re about to enter recession must find all of these examples daunting, if not depressing,” Cramer said. “But earnings season has shown the recession thesis just doesn’t hold...

Alarm! The global credit correction has arrived. Or as Bill Paxton said in Twister, “It’s already here!” The question is, how far into the economy will it extend? US Gross Domestic Income YoY is still growing strong at 4.5%, but shrinking really fast as Fed monetary stimulypto wears off. S&P Global Ratings’ Credit Cycle Indicator – forward-looking measure of credit conditions—shows that the momentum of the correction continues. Source: S&P Global Ratings Speaking of cycles … I give you the ultimate cycle killer, the US Federal Reserve.

I am anxiously waiting for the US inflation report tomorrow, so I am just looking at the US Treasury yield curve, mortgage rates and cryptos today. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve stumbled (just like Biden and Bidenomics) to -91.166 basis points as the turnaround in M2 Money growth has stalled. Bankrate’s 30Y mortgage rate is up to 7.37%, that is UP 156% under Bidenomics. Bitcoin is down today. At least Solana is up. Since November 3, 2022, the US Dollar Index is DOWN -9.68%, Gold is UP 18.55% and Bitcoin (Elizabeth Warren’s latest obsession) is UP 51.11%.

Bidenomics, which Bumbling Biden can’t explain, and his Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre only utters “top down was a failure, we are trying the opposite!” Sorry Karine, Bidenomics personifies top down economic (mis)management where DC picks winners and losers as opposed to the free market. Under Biden’s corrupt administation, it is more like an economic FLEA market. Where the fleas get crumbs and the 1% get all the steaks and champagne. Bidenomics is a confluence of insane levels of Federal spending and horrid Fed monetary policy, particularly in reaction to Covid. Then we have 3 consecutive quarters of declining household...

To quote Bill Paxton’s character from Twister: “It’s Already Here!” The feared recession, that is. The year-over-year growth rate in Household Net Worth has been negative for 3 consecutive quarters, the worst growth since The Great Recession and Financial Crisis of 2008/2009. Of course, the Biden family household net worth is off the charts. As is the household net worth for other Washington DC politicians like Nancy Pelosi (Communist-CA). And AOC (Communist – NY).

A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion on Monday since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, reflecting financial markets' concerns that an extended Federal Reserve rate hiking cycle will tip the United States into recession. The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -109.50 in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. The gap was last at -108.30 bp. Signs of strength in the U.S. economy have prompted market participants to price in...

I was hoping that the week of July 4th would start off with fireworks, but we got bad news about the economy. US factory activity contracted for an eighth month in June, slipping to the weakest level in more than three years as production, employment and input prices retreated. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 46, the weakest since May 2020, from 46.9 a month earlier, according to data released Monday. The current stretch of readings below 50, which indicates shrinking activity, is the longest since 2008-2009. The decline in the ISM production gauge, which also stands...

The first half of 2023 will come to a close on Friday. And when it does, one of Wall Street's big predictions for 2023 will officially be a bust — the stock market did not fall and the US economy did not enter recession. When the year began, we flagged a "surprising consensus" among Wall Street strategists, many of whom expected a dip in the stock market in early '23 as the economy fell into a downturn before a rebound over the second half of the year. Instead, investors have been treated to a stock market rally accentuated by AI...

Wasting away again in Bidenville!! Looking for my lost national housing market. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a -0.2% annual decrease in April, down from a gain of 0.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.2%, down from the -0.7% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, down from -1.1% in the previous month. The winners in April? Miami and … Chicago? The biggest losers in April? Seattle and San Francisco both suffered YoY losses over -11%.

It is truly a Fed Inferno! Money supply growth fell again in April from Jerome Powell And The Fed, plummeting further into negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. April’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. Yes, The Fed is printing money like it is going out of style! The war on Covid was similar to other wars fought where the US printed boatloads of money to pay for WWI. WWII, Korea and Vietnam wars. And the war against the...

Money supply growth fell again in April, plummeting further into negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. April's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. Since April 2021, money supply growth has slowed quickly, and since November, we've been seeing the money supply repeatedly contract—year-over-year— for six months in a row. The last time the year-over-year (YOY) change in the money supply slipped into negative territory was in November 1994. At that time, negative growth continued for fifteen months, finally turning...

I could have used 3 shades of Joe, but 50 shades of Joe sounds better! But the fact remains that Americans are far more miserable under Biden than they were under Trump before the Chinese Wuhan Covid virus was unleashed. 9.03 today (Core CPI YoY + U-3 Unemployment) than it was in February 2020 under Trump (5.86). While not twice as bad, inflation is continues to cause serious problems for America’s middle class and low-wage workers. Speaking of the middle class and low wage workers, let’s look at the Renter’s Misery index (CPI Owner’s equivalent rent YoY + Unemployment rate)....

The US is Living La Vida Biden (living the Biden life!) Which means you are making millions if you are a political elite, but suffering if you live on Main Street. And regional banks (not the TBTF national banks) continue to suffer. The Bank Term Funding Program (1 of 2) is skyrocketing as The Fed cranks up rates to fight BidenFedflation (a combination of excessive monetary stimulus by The Fed and Biden’s lousy economic policies) and M2 Money growth crashes. The regional banking index continues to fall as bank deposits shrink (like me when I used to jump in the...

Like a bad good news, bad news joke, the good news is that US existing home sales ROSE 0.2% in May. The bad news? Existing home sales are DOWN -23.16% on a year-over-year basis. And the median price of existing home sales fell -3.44% YoY as inventory for sales remains missing in action (like Biden debating Democrat challengers). We are living la vida Biden. I propose that Puerto Rican crooner Ricky Martin replace Janet “Transitory” Yellen as US Treasury Secretary.

As I discussed yesterday, the Misey Index under Biden remains elevated compared to that of Trump pre-Covid despite massive financial stimulus from Green Man (The Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell). Now we have more evidence of an impending recession with the Philly Fed General Business Conditions index falling to -16.6 in June as Green Man (M2 Money growth) stalls. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (aka, Green Man) will have an opportunity this week to clarify what many found a confusing message on the path of interest rates, with the added task of assuring Democrats and Republicans the economy is on...

While I am miserable under Biden and Yellen’s “Reign of Error,” apparently much of the USA is miserable under Biden/Yellen as well compared to the pre-Covid days of Donald Trump. 9.03% misery index (unemployment rate+ core inflation) today compared to 5.86% at the end of 2019 under Trump (before we got Fauci’d and Weingarten’d (the National Teachers’ Union President who pushed public school shutdowns)). (Bloomberg) If a recession is going to come in the next 12 months — and most economists surveyed by Bloomberg say it probably is — then President Joe Biden should hope it begins sooner rather than...

I wonder if Biden’s proposed railroad from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean will generate massive industrial production growth? Is this more Bidenomics?? Industrial production unexpectedly dips in May. It peaked eight months ago. On a year-over-year basis, May’s Industrial Production declined to a lame 0.23%. As The Fed hikes rates and slows M2 Money growth. Today the Fed released its Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for May 2023. Industrial production edged down 0.2 percent in May following two consecutive months of increases. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was a small increase. In May, the index for manufacturing ticked up...

Americans are pulling hundreds of billions of dollars out of banks at the fastest pace in nearly 39 years as many economic experts are beginning to predict a repeat of the 2008 “Great Recession.” According to an analysis of the most recent data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), “depositors took a total of $472 billion out of their accounts in the first quarter of this year – shattering a 39 year record,” the Daily Hodl reported. “The quarterly decline is the largest reduction reported in the QBP since data collection began in 1984. This was the fourth consecutive...

Between work at home, Bidenflation and The Feral Reserve, commercial real estate and regional banks are suffering … and it could get a lot worse. And Joe Biden (aka, Negan) in general. The work-from-home trend has been taking its toll on office landlords and is now making its way through to banks’ commercial loan portfolios, leading some analysts to predict that more trauma could be on the way for regional banks this year. And in the current climate of bank failures, short sellers, and nervous depositors, banks with large exposures to commercial real estate (CRE) loans are racing to clean...