It has been eight months since the Federal Reserve Board surprised the financial markets by announcing it might soon end its accommodative monetary policy to head off an inflation it suspected lurked in the wings. Then, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress it might only take a quarter-point rise in the interest rate charged to banks for overnight reserves (the "federal funds rate") to strike a balance between inflation and economic growth. The rate was then 1 percent, the lowest since 1958. And after four quarter-point increases beginning June 30, it is now 2 percent. Yet serious market commentators say...