Yesterday's short, odd, late-morning behavior of the Bush Reelection Contract has now more than corrected itself. As can be see by this graphic of price over the entire lifespan of the contract up to the moment, things are unfolding as we might more or less expect them to. So what happened yesterday? Why did price suddenly plunge, moving to an effective market prediction of below-50% reelection likelihood in a few minutes? And why, indeed, did price recover and resume its current upward trend? I thought the sudden internet appearance of the beheading video might have caused a panic. Others suggested...