Republicans are telling themselves that a political wave is building that could carry them to big election gains next year. Judging by their performance so far in a special election in New York, however, they deserve to wander in the minority for another generation or two. The November 2 contest will replace nine-term Republican John McHugh, who resigned to become Secretary of the Army. President Obama carried the district along the Canadian border with 52%, but George W. Bush carried it twice and Republicans outnumber Democrats by 45,000 or so. With voters alarmed about the economy and runaway spending, this...