Free Republic

One of the most respected and accurate forecasting models in political sciences says that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election, and by a fairly comfortable margin at that. There's just one problem: Its creator doesn't believe his own forecast. Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every...

YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU THINK YOU KNOW [10/14 08:40 AM] You know what? Forget the polls. During my appearance on Hugh Hewitt's radio show last night, the genial host gently criticized the Kerry Spot and NRO's folks in The Corner of being too pessimistic about Bush's chances. Hugh does have a strong case that the opinion polls should be ignored. And this isn't the typical loser's whine that "the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day." What model are all the current pollsters using for turnout? At least some of them, if not most of them,...