Free Republic

Although my thoughts may be a little unorthodox; sometimes when the economy, the government, and the market are working in an unknown manner unorthodox thinking is all that makes sense...Conspiracy? Lies? Deception? Over the past couple of weeks more and more people are beginning to believe the great recession has ended. I have been considering this and trying to decide whether or not the current market run up is just a strong bear market rally or something more. Like all bears, over the last couple of weeks I have been squeezed in my trading (as well as in my thinking)...

Some, and perhaps more than we imagine, economic sectors are immune to the failing economic policies of the Obama Regime. Those industries being driven by the dominant global trends should be somewhat resilient to the ongoing economic problems of the U.S. However, none will totally escape as the U.S. is such an important economic center of consumption. How do investors escape this reliance on U.S. economic activity level? The answer is, quite simply, Agri-Food. Investors, particularly those in the U.S., are being exposed to a grand period of illusory economic statistics. The U.S. Federal Reserve has injected more than a...

For many years, accusations that JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have wide open and huge, exposed short positions against gold and silver, have been made by groups like GATA and others. In the United States these four banks control over 90% of the derivatives market. The accusations that have attended the four banks are that they cannot deliver the physical item because they are heavily ‘short' to the extent that prices are heavily manipulated. The closing and subsequent opening again, of these positions, on due date, enables the ‘short' position to be perpetuated for as long...

I was out for a jog and watched four presidential helicopters land in Lincoln Park just off North Avenue and Lakeshore Drive... Seemingly the entire Chicago police force gathered around the location where the helicopters had landed and the trail I was running on was crawling with Secret Service Agents. This is when a second, and a third, and a fourth...thought came into my head...

In November of 1997, my partner and co-editor of The Casey Report, Doug Casey, wrote an article titled "Foundations of Crisis," which leaned heavily on the research of Neil Howe and the late William Strauss. Howe and Strauss have written many books on how generations determine the course of history and how they will shape America's future. Their forecasts on a wide variety of indicators have turned out to be amazingly accurate. As eye-opening as Doug's predictions were, they brought us only to the onset of the current crisis. Consequently, we thought it both timely and important to check back...

On June 29th the Treasury on Via XX Settembre tried to throw a net around the Gold Bullion stored beneath Rome's Palazzo Koch. It stands at 2,451.8 tonnes – the third largest central bank hoard in the world. And there it's stood – unchanged at 2,451.8 tonnes – for the last 11 years or more. That makes Italy the only Eurozone nation not to sell any of its gold reserves since 1998. It's also the only signatory to the Central Bank Gold Agreements of 1999 and 2004 not to sell any gold either. Which makes you wonder why it bothered...

"There has never been a period in US history when home prices have been falling and we have had real inflation... one must also consider the staggering reduction of consumer credit in the US and global economy... Due to the incredible level of credit contraction within the US, most of the money being put into the banking system by the government is not making it back into the economy. In general, banks are acting as they should by evaluating the overall lending risks in our economy and implementing tighter (more appropriate) lending standards. Under this regime few are willing to...

Type "rubbish economist" into Google. Then hit "I'm Feeling Lucky"... The INCOVENIENT TRUTH about statistics, as Al Gore would no doubt confess if you threatened to stop him flying, is they look backwards, not forwards - and not even quite to the present.

Suddenly the pressure from China to change the world's monetary order is pressing. At the G-8 China asked for the forum to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency! They were largely ignored! China's rising presence in the global economy [$2 trillion reserves now] and the threatening weakness of the $ is prompting China to act in this way and with speed. Not only the Chinese but the French, Finance Minister and Central Bank President called for greater currency stability and a system to avoid piling up currency reserves as we see with the $. It is clear that...

In my first article "America's Sick - Part I" I wrote about the health care reform bill being proposed by Barack Obama. Through that writing I touched on the problems facing the United States health care system. I also discussed the government's proposed solutions to those problems. In Part II of this article I will layout the solutions that would actually fix our issues and will discuss a more prudent way to move US health care forward. 1. Employer Health care Benefits 2. A Three Party Health Care System Increases Costs 3. Costs Must Be Available Ahead of Time 4....

It's possible that no concept in history has ever come so far, so fast, and with so little substance behind it, as "global warming." Or, to be precise, anthropogenic global warming (AGW) - the kind caused by us puny humans rather than by that fireball that keeps the planet habitable. ...Sadly, that misallocation is about to get a whole lot bigger. If the Obama administration has its way - and it is expected to, since there's no meaningful opposition - carbon caps will soon be coming to every American town... If you're unfamiliar with the concept of a carbon cap,...

The Obama administration is currently working to push health care reform down the pipeline at an alarming rate. The reason for this is that President Obama is trying to make good on his promise that sweeping health care reform will be completed by the end of 2009. What’s really important here though is not whether or not he meets that deadline. Hitting that deadline is actually quite irrelevant as the proposed options to fix the system won’t address the real problems in health care. Even worse yet it seems that the administration doesn’t care that the real problems won’t be...

Yesterday I gave myself a report card on my predictions from January of 2009 through the end of June 2009 to mark half a year's passing. I was writing today but got side tracked because I couldn't stop thinking about grading Barack Obama after his first semester. As of today, I've officially decided that for the duration of Barack Obama's term I will give him a semester report card as well. So rather than finish what I was working on I spent some time this morning creating a Presidential Report Card from American University. CNC's blog column is a bit...

"Just how can the Fed credibly promise to be irresponsible...?" HERE'S A THOUGHT - that tiny handful of investors and analysts warning how Fed policy risks hyper-inflation are in fact doing the central bank's work. The Fed wants you to believe hyperinflation is looming. Or at least, it should want that, if doubling its balance-sheet - purchasing and lending against investment junk - is going to work the wonders that modern central-bank theory says it can. And the Fed certainly wants you to believe it will stop at nothing to avoid deflation ("whatever means necessary" as the chairman put it...

This week (June 22-26) I again fielded a ton of questions from several media sources on oil. This is my recollection of what I was asked, how I responded, and some support for my thinking. Question: I'm seeing at least two reports that said china consumption is up a second month, up much more than a year ago and at record levels. Platts recently reported that China consumed 33.23 million metric tons of oil in May, up 6% from a year earlier. Answer: Demand from China may be up, however, according to the International Energy Agency, global demand for crude...

Anyone who was complaining about bonus’s being paid out at companies that received government aid better think twice. Government interference within the marketplace never accomplishes its intended results. In every instance, governments are always unable to properly anticipate the consequences of their actions when trying to legislate “problems” away. By removing performance based job targets the government has displaced the competitiveness which is required within the financial industry for success. Ironically, now more than ever, this kind of competitive nature is what will be required at the assisted financial entities if they are to compete with non-assisted companies. However, due...

An interesting chart that I created off the most recent Federal M1 currency graph...see link for graph...Now after reviewing the graph, take a moment to carefully evaluate the time periods in this chart. Observe the periods when currency has grown and where it has decreased. Then think about the policies and events that occurred during each of these periods. What Happened Around 1987? The following is a partial listing of what's happened in the US and the World since the chart began to become materially different around 1987. The author lays out the major events which occurred since Alan Greenspan...

"When President Barack Obama increased unemployment benefits as part of his economic stimulus, he also made some Americans ineligible for hundreds of dollars a month in food stamps. Under the economic recovery plan, laid-off workers have seen a $25 weekly bump in their unemployment checks as part of a broad expansion of benefits for the poor. But the law did not raise the income cap for food stamp eligibility, so the extra money has pushed some people over the limit. Laid-off workers and state officials are only now realizing the quirk, a consequence of pushing a $787 billion, 400-page bill...

This week (June 8-12) I was interviewed by several media sources regarding my thoughts on oil and the direction of gas prices at the pump. These are a few of the questions I was asked and how I responded. Question: What happened in the last month that's prompted this increase in gas price -- and oil price for that matter?

Healthcare is the biggest segment of our economy. In the debate over who should pay for what or, increasingly, for whom, most people don't stop to understand just how large a portion of our society's money is dedicated to healthcare. For some perspective, as a share of GDP, the U.S. spends about twice that of other advanced nations. This is an important reason why the U.S. is increasingly uncompetitive in global manufacturing. It is, for instance, the most important factor (besides poor management) that General Motors and Chrysler are going bankrupt. http://www.commoditynewscenter.com/articles/Insight/Why_Healthcare_Is_Killing_America