Free Republic

Joseph Conrad, a Pole whose parents and uncles were severely punished for revolting against the Czars, wrote: “The common guilt of the two Empires [Germany and Russia] is defined precisely by their frontier line running through the Polish provinces.” La plus ca change, la plus meme chose.

Though I never had Friedman as a professor, he changed my life. I went to the University of Chicago because of him, and while there learned from many of his students. His writings were also a deep influence. He had the genius of being able to write brilliant technical economics articles and equally brilliant (and persuasive) polemics. He stood out not just as a thinker, but a writer--something all too rare in economics.

Maybe this explains the spam I have been receiving lately--it's either a homework assignment from this school, or the desparate plea of women who realize that Russian men are hopeless, bitch school or no:

Hello!
I am Elena and i am here to know you better and start a relations with you. I can say about myself that I am easy-going and curious May be it is normal to my age but I feel myself crazy sometimes I want to see and to know so much I am kind, attentive, open minded and passion. I know what I want from this life and I feel that I am ready for the serious relationships; I am searching for the right person - for my husband and father for our children.
I have some questions for you if you want to get to know me closer:
1/ Are you interested in serious relations with Russian woman?
2/ Are you planning to visit Russia?
3/ Would you like to correspond or to talk by phone?
4/ Why are you interested in Russian lady?
5/ Have you ever been to Russia?
6/ What is important for you in relations and am I right for you?
I will be waiting for your reply to

admin@1BRIDE4UONLINE.INFO

And what about you?

Typical morning brain cramp. Posted to the wrong article.

Maybe this explains the spam I have been receiving lately--it's either a homework assignment from this school, or the desparate plea of women who realize that Russian men are hopeless, bitch school or no:

Hello!
I am Elena and i am here to know you better and start a relations with you. I can say about myself that I am easy-going and curious May be it is normal to my age but I feel myself crazy sometimes I want to see and to know so much I am kind, attentive, open minded and passion. I know what I want from this life and I feel that I am ready for the serious relationships; I am searching for the right person - for my husband and father for our children.
I have some questions for you if you want to get to know me closer:
1/ Are you interested in serious relations with Russian woman?
2/ Are you planning to visit Russia?
3/ Would you like to correspond or to talk by phone?
4/ Why are you interested in Russian lady?
5/ Have you ever been to Russia?
6/ What is important for you in relations and am I right for you?
I will be waiting for your reply to

admin@1BRIDE4UONLINE.INFO

And what about you?

Very interesting how Putin is very quick on the trigger to impose sanctions against Georgia, but can find excuse after excuse for not imposing sanctions on Iran.

Climate models have no skill at predicting regional climate, so I take any prediction about the local impact of global warming with a boatload of salt. Climate modelers prefer to use global average temperature as their metric of global warming, likely because this average obscures their pitiful record at explaining regional variations. Moreover, predictions regarding rainfall, drought, etc., are also very problematic. They are based on crude "parameterizations" within climate models because these phenomena occur at scales that are not resolved in the modeling grid. These kinds of "predictions" are tendentious because unlike true scientific predictions, they are not really testable. Why not make a prediction about events in 100 years--can't be proved wrong (in the predictor's lifetime, which is all that likely matters to him) and might advance a political cause.

Hey, hey, hey. It's Fat Albert. </cosby voice>

I'm not about to blow $4.95 telling me something I can find for free in numerous places. However, I am curious to know whether the article discusses recent predictions by the Russian climatologist Abdusamatov that we we will soon experience a cooling period due to variations in solar activity. See this article for a brief overview.

The inability (or more accurately, the refusal) to change one's views in the face of contrary evidence is a sign of mental disturbance. Interpreting every fact--regardless of how contrary it is to your views--as a confirmation that you were right all along, and that your only mistake is that you didn't go far enough, is pure insanity.

The study underlying this article was given a serious beat-down on an extended FR thread yesterday. Even those who believe that there are extraterrestrial climate forcings do not believe that variations in the sun's energy output is important. Instead, solar cycles affect cloud formation through their effect on the amount of ionizing radiation coming from space.

There are numerous correlations between earth climate variables and variables related to the output of the sun. Correlation does not imply causation, but there is no reasonable mechanism by which the earth's climate can influence the sun's behavior, so it is plausible that variations in solar output affect the earth's climate. The mechanism, however, is not well understood.

The study discussed in this article focuses merely on the sun's brightness--the amount of energy it is putting it out. Even scientists who believe that solar fluctuations induce climate fluctuations have long discounted this direct connection. Instead, they posit that changes in solar wind influence cloud formation. And the dirty little secret of climate science is that climatologists have very little understanding of cloud formation or feedback mechanisms involving clouds. Climate models have very crude characterizations ("parameterizations") of clouds. This is their achilles heel.

In sum, the article restates what has been known a long time, namely, that variations in the sun's energy output alone cannot explain variations in earth temperature. It only alludes tangentially to the possibility of other mechanisms linking solar output to earth climate, and then gives away the game by saying (towards the end) that these other mechanisms are poorly understood.

Further my last, it is ironic that the storm that precipitated the debate referred to in the article--Katrina (note the article's mention of the 13 month debate)--was not that intense. Indeed, recent analysis strongly suggests that it was a garden variety Category 1 storm by the time it hit NOLA. However, even a weak punch can deliver a knockout blow if it connects with a glass jaw, and the combination of bad geography and bad engineering made NOLA uniquely vulnerable.

Recent studies show that although the heat content of the oceans increased in the 1990s and early 2000s, it fell by 20 percent or so in 2003-2005. But that doesn't fit the template.

Moreover, it should be noted that this article describes a study based on computer models. Models can generate hypotheses that can be tested with data. Models are not, in themselves, evidence; they generate predictions that should be compared with empirical evidence to assess the models' validity. The data do not provide convincing evidence of an increasing trend in the number of intense storms.

"Most commodities are fairly predictable."

That is without a doubt the most ignorant statement I have ever read on FR. In fact, commodity prices are highly volatile and extremely unpredictable. You say "Investors buy hog bellies and sell corn and buy coffee every day. Some very astute speculators make a fortune buying low and selling high." True--but completely irrelevant. Many very astute speculators also lose their shirts buying high and selling low. Cf. MotherRock, an energy hedge fund run by two very astute guys that just shut down due to huge losses.

There's an old joke in commodity markets: "Want to make a small fortune trading commodities? Start with a large fortune."

Re the Senate report--it is a farrago of facts, factoids, and falsehoods stitched together to support a pre-determined conclusion. The "evidence" amassed by the Senate committee proves less than nothing--and certainly does not "prove" the claims it trumpets. It is an ugly assemblage of opinion and assertions and non sequitors dressed up as a serious analysis of the energy market.

Re the current oil market. There is no doubt a lot of dirty money involved--but this is not responsible for the current price levels in the market. There's been dirty money in oil trading (and other commodity markets) since time immemorial.

Current oil prices are driven by a tight supply and demand situation compounded by fears--which you mention in your post--that the situation will become worse due to disruptions arising from political instability. These are serious concerns, and hyping the roles of speculation and manipulation (as the Senate report does) is a pointless distraction from attention on the real sources of high prices. Politicians have blamed speculators for high prices since Roman times. It's easy, it's politically profitable (speculators have few admirers)--and it's completely counterproductive.

Financeprof (and current Texan).

It had better be a big church. There are more abortions than live births in Russia.

Briley was a Freeper who went by the handle of OKCSubmariner. I think he was banned in 02. His last post is 9/9/02.

You are right. The Chinese government is talking about raising prices on refined products, but has not done so because of pressures from consuming industries. Last month I taught a course for VP-level managers at Sinopec, the largest Chinese refining company, and they were all lamenting the impact of price controls on the profitability of refining operations.

Morningside Bookshop in Dayton Ohio sells the Bachelder maps, and Bachelder's papers. There is a link at the Morningside website devoted to Bachelder. Get your credit card ready and enjoy.

If I was playing "Dead or Alive" and had been asked about Norman Mineta, I would have said "dead." I would have been right if just commenting about his state from the neck up.