Free Republic

If you’re referring to Greece, green is color on all PASOK signs. They are the socialist party and their leaders are largely responsible for this.

Federalized European debt is necessary though.
Is this “a federalized debt union in which eurobonds would be backed by all nations”?

Yes it is. Spain is in dire need of this. If they can’t tap Germany’s creditworthyness, the 7% interest rate on Spanish borrowing will destroy the country.

All these bailouts, especially like the most recent Spanish one with no specific stipulations, are creating a future problem not often discussed. European interest rates will skyrocket as new debt is piled on old with no specifics as to who is to be paid back first. Lenders will require huge rates before doling out more cash to countries because they don’t know who is in line to be paid back before them and how long it will take.

Federalized debt is the only answer to this problem at this point. It is common sense in some ways, a monetary union without fiscal unity is going to, by nature, always be on shaky ground except in the absolute best of times when money is absurdly cheap.

“Euro phantombond”

Great name!

Federalized European debt is necessary though. The alternative is a regression to the conditions that led to centuries of war on the continent.

“Judging from the equivocal vote today We’ll be seeing if the European Central Bank can do as well for the Greeks as the Colonels did.”

Yea. The sad thing is the Greeks don’t seem to understand that is the only option other than withdraw, take the pain, rebuild, and come back. This is what is favored by Golden Dawn. This is what is favored by most hardworking industrious Greeks with pride. Unfortunately that isn’t most Greeks.

If Poland can do it, so can Greece. Only there is to fear is fear itself, and all that. People think FDR said that about the War, but he said it about the depression.

“I am not that familiar with Greece, and I have always wondered at the origins of this hard-core socialism. Also, I wonder if the roots of the problems of these three southern countries (Greece, Spain and Italy) actually go back to WWII and the situation after it.”

In a nutshell yes. Greece, after WW2 and the expansion of the USSR, was seen by the CIA and Eisenhower administration as the lynchpin separating communism from invading western Europe. The U.S funneled money first to the Military junta and then the socialist government which both managed to retain power for long periods of time by creating a welfare state whose stability everyone relied on for survival.

This is the short and generalized, but 100% true, history.

Greece will collapse.

Right now Greeks are taking all their money out of Greek banks. Because of the way the ECB functions all of these withdraws are AUTOMATICALLY replaced with ECB funds (same for all EU countries).

What’s going to happen very soon is that Either Greek government imposes capital controls (won’t happen) or the ECB stops replenishing the Greek banks. This will be the zero hour or tipping point of the crisis.

Greek citizens are trying to lock in the value of their Euros now before Greece exits the Euro and capital is immediately frozen and converted to Drachmas becoming substantially devalued in the process.

If it becomes clear that this is a wholesale bank run (it is by the way), and not just a momentary panic that will subside, someone has to act. Either the Greek government imposes capital controls and freezes the movement of depositors cash out of Greece so the banks can continue to pay their debts. Or the ECB stops the automatic replenishment of withdrawn Euros to Greek banks and thus ensures the Complete collapse of the country.

This is such a precarious unprecedented situation because by imposing these capital controls the Greek government would be accepting a loss of sovereignty on the scale of losing a war and if the ECB stops this replenishment they will be taking responsibility for potentially knocking over the first domino in a sequence that no one knows the extent of. The leaders of the ECB are of the opinion that they don’t have the political authority to make that kind of decision. I woud agree.

But in the meantime Europe continues to pay for the Greek collapse by essentially funding a bank run.

The whole story is that the ECB can afford to do this. But the same account patterns in Greece that began the current money migration out of the country’s banks can be seen in data from Spain and Italy. That, the ECB obviously cannot afford.

“The best thing for Greece is to leave the EU and wean itself off of Socialism.”

This is mostly true. Something similar to the transformation Poland underwent, and now they have the fastest growing economy in Europe.

Yes the American engineer and worker is highly resourceful and industrious and when focused (and unencumbered from a great war on her own shores) is capable of immense achievements. But we were not a superpower then. It was the economic collapse of much of the world following WW2 that allowed the 20th century concept of the superpower to emerge.

One can not simply dismiss government intervention wholesale, it was government intervention in the 1930’s that laid the groundwork for the US to prosper after the war. And it wasn’t until the late 70’s when this system began to be dismantled that we entered the bubble cycle we now find ourselves in. Each subsequent recession since then has been longer and worse than the one proceeding it while, concurrently, financial instruments have become more complex and government regulation weakened.

I’m for intelligent regulation written by qualified, competent professionals and equal balance between the influence of industry, government, and consumers in the enforcement and oversight of this regulation. Professionals must feel the pain that is caused by their criminal mismanagement of risk.

However, as livius just said, let’s suspend this 60 year old digression in favor of more topical issues.

Isn’t that something? Unbelievable the way sports can be a cultural microcosm, especially the olympics and national tournaments like this.

“If it is prestigious university then it is almost certain that you have been utterly brainwashed to never see the moral good of Capitalism. MBA programs are infested with leftists statists. The single reason the US became the worlds economic superpower is because government was wise enough to let people be free and allow Capitalism flourish.”

The single reason the US became the world’s economic superpower is the condition WW2 left the world in. If you remember your history America was the developed world’s asshole before WW2.

Also, if you’d ever been in a top level American MBA program you’d know they aren’t filled with “leftist statists” and are instead populated with custodians of corporate status quo and are teaching from a curriculum largely developed in the 80’s.

You’re the one who’s been brainwashed by largely media jingoism and talking points. I question the veracity and continued relevance of everything I’m taught particularly when it comes from pillars of our academic community (no matter their biases) who’ve collected a nice booty in consulting fees while guiding private institutions, fiscal policy, and economic regulation into this quagmire.

“The Greek people are a wonderful bunch. The nation has taken a wrong turn many decades ago. It expects things from government that only can be given a the cost of ruination. The bill has arrived and they hope to not pay.”

You hit the nail on the head.

And when I say “there is something systemically unsustainable in western capitalism” I specifically mean the way pain is felt and the way risk is mismanaged.

“I am graduating with an MBA from a prestigious american university at the end of the year and I’m mad as hell.”

“... About the ridiculous tuition you paid? Or that you bought into the prestigious thingy? Sorry, target rich environment, that post was.”

I said it that way trying to emphasize that most of my classmates will be going into the some of the largest private leadership roles having been educated by the people that are the cause of many of the problems.

(also, I am here on 50% scholarship and grants.)

Yes I did come here because I wanted more access to the brightest minds and biggest institutions. But now that I’m nearly done I’ve committed myself to a non-profit management career where the mission is the bottom line not eps.

“Next decade is amazingly bright - in Asia. Go west, young man! “

Absolutely not. That is more of the same. Exporting this behavior globally while chasing money around the world until it’s all gone will leave the WHOLE world (instead of half of it) in this predicament. I’m sorry if I don’t want to sacrifice all the people, history, tradition, and art I love in the name of profit.

All of our “brightest minds” can’t be on one side of the stakeholder/shareholder gap.

True to an extent.

Back when all banks were local institutions that only used depositors’ money for local investment, living standards universally rose.

But now the global interconnectedness of the markets allow for profits to be made in far away places where externalities are only felt by the local stakeholders and not felt by the investors or shareholders. In this environment Government is the only entity powerful enough to regulate financial behavior since relying on moral judgement has proven ineffective. And unfortunately the regulation has been written by interest groups and congressional staff unqualified to provide substantial oversight.

Once again, I like capitalism but I love and crave competence the most.

I’m sorry but I get really worked up by people making jokes of this. We are witnessing the undeveloping of a european union country. There is something systemically unsustainable in western capitalism and unless there is a fundamental transformation in our markets, wealth structure, and moral beliefs the first world will continue undeveloping.

I am by no means suggesting socialism is the answer. I am graduating with an MBA from a prestigious american university at the end of the year and I’m mad as hell. Now that the criminal negligence and moral lapses in public and private leadership are so obvious to me, and yet remain so elusive to many of my classmates I am very pessimistic about the next decade.

I like capitalism, but I love competence.

Athinon B is the district that has picked the winner in every Greek election for 40 years. thats the only exit poll that really matters.

If you knew your history, you’d know this is not funny

After a Greek exit and IF Merkel continues to obstruct debt federalization and IF capital controls are imposed and IF Germany wins this tournament (only slightly joking there) a wave of anti-Germany sentiment will really sweep over the continent.

Just to clear something up:

Golden Dawn (I’m not a supporter) is not a Neo Nazi party, this is something the english language media has picked up on without much knowledge.

Elias, in that now infamous tv incident, was saying Papandreou (the socialist PM of Greece for decades and leader of PASOK, and who’s policies are the cause of all this) should be executed for his criminal negligence. If you understand Greek you’d know he was being hyperbolic, but many Greeks would agree with the sentiment.

He is a nationalist NOT a socialist. He believes Greece should voluntarily withdraw from the Euro and relearn how to live without a welfare state. The majority of people don’t know any other way. He believes the country must undergo a period of disciplined restructuring and growth (see Poland, now the fastest growing economy in europe).

A ND or Syriza win won’t change anything. Samaras is beholden to interest groups and Tsipras is simply a charismatic fool.

If you’ve read European news in the last week you will have seen countless stories showing how Europe can absorb a Greek exit. This is a coordinated communications attempt from PR firms, the ECB and Finance ministers to calm investors and bankers from panicing post-election.

Europe doesn’t want to federalize debt until the Greek tumor has been removed. And the recovery of Spain and Italy relies on this federalization.

Greece is leaving the Euro. All that will be determined by this election is how much more european money they take with them.

I’m just glad my grandfather, a real Greek patriot who fought first the Nazi’s and then was wounded fighting the Soviets to assure Greek independence and then endured 25 years of corrupt socialist policies while never once trying to exploit the system himself, isn’t alive to see the fruition of his worst fears.