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Rumors of the 2003 market rally's imminent death have been greatly exaggerated in recent months. But according to one analyst with an enviable track record, the end days are finally here, and it's time to prepare for a sickening plunge into December and beyond. The doomsayer is Michael Belkin, one of the few investment analysts who has emerged from the recent boom, bust and reboom with his reputation not just intact, but aglow. Most independent researchers build careers as all-bull or all-bear, but not this guy. Operating out of a home office on Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound near...

My apologies, again, for an unedited Bulletin. For the week, the Dow was slightly positive and the S&P500 slightly negative. Economically sensitive issues outperformed, with the Transports and Morgan Stanley Cyclical indices adding 1%. The Utilities and Morgan Stanley Consumer indices were unchanged. The broader market was its usual volatile self, but ended the week about flat. The small cap Russell 2000’s slight advanced increased its year-to-date gain to 36%. The S&P400 Mid-cap index was unchanged. The highflying technology sector gave up a little air. For the week, the NASDAQ100 declined 1% and the Morgan Stanley High Tech index...

A funny thing happened last week. Mortgage rates remained basically unchanged, inching up just 2 basis points to 5.81% from 5.79% a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. But demand for refinance loans and purchase loans dropped. Like a rock. This was not your garden-variety drop. It was a huge plunge: Applications for refi loans sank more than 22%. Applications for purchase loans crashed 19%. Refinance applications are now down MORE THAN 75% from their late-May peak while purchase applications are at their lowest level since April. What's going on? It's pretty obvious ... * The...

Big, ugly things are on the horizon Comstock Partners has concluded that real estate is almost certainly the place where the big popping of the bubble will begin, and for many important reasons, even though they hedge their bet a little, and allow that perhaps a collapse of the dollar may be the culprit, or maybe some big bankruptcy, or something. But probably real estate. But continuing with the real estate angle, they quoted the Richebächer Letter, and said "Since 1997, total housing values have soared from 8.8 trillion to about 14 trillion presently." Even though they left the dollar...

It was one more unsettled week for global financial markets, as equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities all seemingly traded with dizzying volatility. Our stock market was choppy, but ended the week little changed. The Dow, S&P500, Transports and Morgan Stanley Cyclical indices posted fractional declines. The Utilities added 1% and the Morgan Stanley Consumer index enjoyed a slight gain. The broader market was largely unchanged, with the small cap Russell 2000 slightly positive and the S&P400 Mid-cap index slightly negative. The NASDAQ100 was flat for the week. The highflying technology sector generally underperformed. The Morgan Stanley High Tech index...

International Perspective, by Marshall Auerback China Tightens - The Beginning Of The End Of Global Reflation? September 2, 2003 There is much anecdotal and statistical evidence to support the notion of an incipient global recovery now underway, in marked contrast to last spring's dire talk about deflation.  Germany's IFO index (a leading indicator of business confidence) has now exceeded expectations 4 months' running, Canadian home sales are booming, the UK is still in the midst of a mortgage refi boom, and the economies of emerging Asia continue to upgrade their respective GDP growth estimates.  With American economic growth recently revised...

Home  l  Broadcast  l  WrapUp  l  Storm Watch  l  Perspectives  l  Sitemap  l  About Us Apocalypse This Way Comesby Nelson HultbergSeptember 2, 2003 A smattering of today's mainstream pundits is beginning to understand that what economically plagues us today is something quite different from the standard inflationary-recessionary cycles that have prevailed since World War II. But the great majority of talking heads and financial columnists remain clueless -- dutifully accepting the establishment line that depicts the nature of recessions from past models. The error in this view is that all recessions since World War II have been the result...

U.S. Aug nonfarm payrolls fell 93,000 Friday September 5, 8:28 am ET WASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department seasonally adjusted jobs data. In 1,000s, Change Aug July (Prev) June (Prev) in Nonfarm Payrolls -93 -49 -44 -83 -72 Jobless Rate (Pct) 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.4 Earnings, Hours of Private, Non-Farm Production workers: . Aug July (Prev) June (Prev) Avg Weekly Hours 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.7 Manufacturing Hours 40.1 40.1 40.1 40.3 40.3 Overtime Hours 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Earnings/Hour (dlrs) 15.45 15.43 15.44 15.38 15.39 Pct change 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Non-Farm Month-On-Month Payroll...