U.S. Aug nonfarm payrolls fell 93,000

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | September 5, 2003

[Starwind]

U.S. Aug nonfarm payrolls fell 93,000
Friday September 5, 8:28 am ET

 WASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department
seasonally adjusted jobs data.  
In 1,000s, Change        Aug    July  (Prev)    June  (Prev)
 in Nonfarm Payrolls     -93     -49     -44     -83     -72
Jobless Rate (Pct)       6.1     6.2     6.2     6.4     6.4
Earnings, Hours of Private, Non-Farm Production workers:
.                        Aug    July  (Prev)    June  (Prev)
Avg Weekly Hours        33.6    33.6    33.6    33.7    33.7
Manufacturing Hours     40.1    40.1    40.1    40.3    40.3
 Overtime Hours          4.1     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0
Earnings/Hour (dlrs)   15.45   15.43   15.44   15.38   15.39
   Pct change         0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.3
Non-Farm Month-On-Month Payroll Changes by Industry (1,000s):
.                        Aug    July  (Prev)    June  (Prev)
Total Private            -67     -56     -34     -75     -71
Goods-Producing          -26     -58     -67     -37     -49
Construction              19       3       6      14      12
Manufacturing            -44     -59     -71     -54     -63
Service-Providing        -67       9      23     -46     -23
Trade/transp/utilities   -21     -34     -44     -44     -46
Wholesale Trade          -10     -12     -14     -11     -11
Retail                    -4      -2     -14     -15     -20
Transp/warehousing        -7     -21     -16     -15     -12
Information              -16     -10      -8      -9      -7
Financial activities      -1       3       7       1       6
Real estate/rental         2       2       5       1       3
Professional/business    -28      46      73       4       6
Temporary help svs         7      12      42      30      34
Leisure/hospitality        5       8      13      13      21
Government               -26       7     -10      -8      -1
Aggregate Weekly Hours Indexes, Seasonally Adj. (1982=100)
.                                 Aug    July    June
Total Private (pct change)       -0.1    -0.4    UNCH
Manufacturing (pct change)       -0.2    -1.1    -0.1
Total Private (index)            98.2    98.3    98.7
Manufacturing (index)            93.8    94.0    95.0
Note--The indexes show total aggregate hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls by industry.
Pool of available workers
Seasonally adj in mlns
.          Aug     July
.       13.745   13.983
 Pct change
.         -1.7     -0.3
  HOUSEHOLD SURVEY-Civilian Employment, Seasonally Adj.
(Monthly change in 1,000s):
.                   Aug    July
 Workforce          -10    -556
 Employed           147    -260
 Unemployed        -157    -296
JOB LEAVERS         Aug    July
  Total             782     792
  As Pct of
unemployed       8.8     8.9
 FORECAST:
 Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast for Aug:
 +12,000 for U.S. non-farm payrolls
 6.2 pct jobless rate
 +0.3 average hourly earnings
 33.7 hours in average workweek
 HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:
 US LABOR-BLACKOUT UNLIKELY TO HAVE IMPACTED AUG PAYROLLS
DATA
 The nonfarm payroll data is based on a survey of employers
and the jobless rate is based on a survey of households.
 Click (USLD01) for full text of employment report.

[Starwind]

The full Bureau of Labbor Stats CES report is at THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: AUGUST 2003

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[Starwind]

The widespread electrical power failure in the Northeast and Midwest occurred late in the afternoon of Thursday, August 14, forcing many businesses to shut down for a period of time during the survey reference periods. Because of the way employment is defined in the two surveys, however, it is likely that the blackout had little effect on the August employment counts.

[arete]

We're Americans for heavens sake. We don't need no stinkin jobs.

Richard W.

[LS]

Interesting, and barely reported, is the fact that the civilian workforce has INCREASED by two million since 2000.
Go here http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm for the details.

[arete]

So jobs are being destroyed at the same time that the number of people looking for a job is increasing?

Richard W.

[AntiGuv]

Yeah, and amazingly enough, the number of unemployed has increased by 3 million according to your own source...

[Starwind]

It is reported, monthly, in table A1 of the full report, though you'd have to go back to the year 2000 reports to get Table A1 data for those months.

The Civilian labor force grows and shrinks, but has fallen however the last two months:

                                   Mar.    Apr.    May     June    July    Aug.
                                   2003    2003    2003    2003    2003    2003 
 
     Civilian labor force....... 145,793 146,473 146,485 147,096 146,540 146,530
      Unemployed...............   8,445   8,786   8,998   9,358   9,062   8,905
          Unemployment rate....     5.8     6.0     6.1     6.4     6.2     6.1

[Orangedog]

Like nobody saw this coming with the higher "productivity" numbers that were released this week. The increase in productivity is not from accomplishing more work by the same amount of people, but by having fewer employees do the same amount of work.

[Starwind]

The increase in productivity is not from accomplishing more work by the same amount of people, but by having fewer employees do the same amount of work.

Productivity is not the issue here.

The economists continue to ignore the capacity overhang and employers are no where near as stupid as to believe that 1 tax cut and a re-fi housing bubble (now deflating) are a sound basis on which to expand production and employment. Employers see demand as temporary and soft, plus they continue to offshore.

That's why economists are often wrong but never in doubt and don't run companies.

[lelio]

Is it a requirement that whenever Elaine Chao is on CNBC Larry Kudlow is there to walk her through the interview? It happened again this morning, where Chao said that there are jobs out there and mentioned financial services "with all those low interest rates."

Perhaps she should see what NYC's financial services employment numbers are doing. Or maybe San Francisco. Hello, Elaine, they're laying off people left and right.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Oh, you thought she meant employment of Americans in the financial services sector. I see where you got confused,

[Starwind]

Perhaps she should see what NYC's financial services employment numbers are doing. Or maybe San Francisco. Hello, Elaine, they're laying off people left and right.

Sheesh! She oughta do a little homework (check a website maybe?) before opening her mouth. Construction (of homes driven by record low interst rates and the GSE's) is the only significant employment growth. Finance was strong until post-Iraq market rally slowed and the re-fi market began to deflate, and is now shrinking.

Non-Farm Month-On-Month Payroll Changes by Industry (1,000s):
.                        Aug    July  (Prev)    June  (Prev)
Construction              19       3       6      14      12
Financial activities      -1       3       7       1       6
Real estate/rental         2       2       5       1       3
Temporary help svs         7      12      42      30      34

Anybody who needs, or allows, Kudlow to lead them is not worth listening to anyway.

[arete]

Chao said that there are jobs out there and mentioned financial services "with all those low interest rates."

Wasn't it that nitwit Chao who was out a couple of months ago saying that higher unemployment was good because more people seeking jobs showed optimism? I'm surprised that she didn't mention the great opportunities there are going to be in the debt collection, auto repo and pawn shop sectors. These people are our "leaders". Scary.

Richard W.

[Orangedog]

Productivity is not the issue here.

That's kinda what I was getting at. There are a lot of CNBC talking heads who think that increased productivity makes up for a lousy business environment. Just like how when Walmart sales go up they ignore the fact that most of what they sell is imported, so strong Walmart sales usually means that the trade deficit will go higher. But, yeah, you pretty much nailed what the bigger problems are.

[lelio]

Yep, Chao said that

"While the unemployment rate is disappointing, it can be viewed as an indication of renewed confidence in the economy with the increased labor force participation rate. "

[LS]

I agree it has, not denying that. It is interesting, wouldn't you say, that Bush has "created" 2 million new jobs?

[LS]

Yah, but the data also shows that new jobs are being CREATED. Hmmmm. Don't hear much about that, do we?

[AntiGuv]

It is only interesting to the extent that one does not understand the relevant statistics..

[AntiGuv]

BTW, take a glance at the employment-population ratio when you have a moment...