Citing conventional wisdom or an "appeal to authority" will reach out and bite you every time. The proverbial "appeal to authority" in an argument only works when the "authority" is credible. The conventional wisdom that the 2024 presidential race is razor-close is based on polls. Frankly, pollsters themselves are warning us not to trust their work.“There are a lot of sh***y polls out there,” said John Anzalone, who has done polling work for Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama. And, added Greg Strimple, a Republican pollster, many hardcore Donald Trump voters aren't responding to polls at all, especially online...