Schwarznegger Gets 34% of Uberroth Votes..McClintock 21% (New Afternoon CA. Poll Number-Crunching)

Sacremento Bee Political Insider ^ | September 9, 2003 | Dan Weintraub

[meg70]

In a long and very interesting poll pubished today by the California Chamber of Commerce, (which has endorsed Arnold, and bits have been excerpted to the media) Uberroth backers were asked who they would support if he withdrew.

This is what they said: Schwarzenegger 34%, McClintock 21%, Bustamante 23%.

[A CA Guy]

The guy with twice the people voting for him is never the spoiler, that is McClintock's position.

[af_vet_1981]

So where are the calls for Arnold to pull out and back McClintock?

They are limited to a handful of Freepers who struggled in Mathematics ...

[Coop]

It cannot be more clearly demonstrated than that. Arnold or Cruz. It's one or the other. Arnold would win. McClintock would not. There are two choices: Arnold or Cruz.

Assuming these numbers are correct, I must heartily disagree. If McC, still a virtual unknown, is now polling in the low 40s a month out, he has a wonderful shot at winning this thing.

[NYC Republican]

McClintock can close that 6% gap.

NOT with Arnold there... If McClintock doesn't drop out soon, I'd bet my bottom dollar that not only would Cruz get a plurality, but Davis will keep the overall tally at below 50% and keep his job.

[Texas_Dawg]

Assuming these numbers are correct, I must heartily disagree. If McC, still a virtual unknown, is now polling in the low 40s a month out, he has a wonderful shot at winning this thing.

Those numbers are only what McClintock would get if Arnold drops out. So even if Arnold drops out of the race, McClintock would still be 6 points behind.

[jmc813]

This is a unique situation and I'm sure Bret could not have been causing a split that would elect a Democrat as McClintock has been doing.

You're half right. The GOP establishment was strongly against Bret during the primary, as he was not "electable". Granted, though, he was the sole Repub in the general election, so it's not exactly the same as the Calli situation. That said, I still don't think McC is a tool. :-)

[NYC Republican]

It also stands for those so called Republicans who REFUSE to support the Republican in the race if they don't get EVERYTHING they want. I've seen a number of RINO McClintock supporters who have stated they won't vote for Arnold if McClintock drops-out. But I haven't seen a single Arnold supporter say they wouldn't support McClintock if Arnold dropped out.

BINGO! I've got to believe that given our preference between the 2 candidates, if they had an equal chance of winning, we'd all prefer McClintock. Our values, beliefs, etc are much closer aligned to Tom than Arnold...

The real question is ... do we want Arnold or Cruz... that's what it comes down to...

[NYC Republican]

I hate to say it, but Arnold has one huge advantage over Bustamante: Everyone knows "Schwartzenegger" is running. It's even easy to find, being the longest name. But do you realize that 70% of Demonrats can't even name ONE primary contestant? And, apologies to Californians here... YOu guys are the exceptions to the rule, as your presence indicates... But Californians are the most politically ignorant people in the U.S. These polls are skewed because they usually list the names for the voters. How many voters do you think will be able to remember that "Bustamante" is the leading Democrat, and find him in a list of 135 names? Frankly, John Jacobsjingleheimerschmidt (easy to spot) would probably run neck and neck with Bugs Bunny (easy to remember) in the polls if they could both run.

Great post! I haven't even thought of that. In the typical polls, they are asked to choose among 4 or 5 candidates. At the polls, there are scores, and how many will go through the effort to find Cruz? Especially if it's alphabetical... Again, great point.

[NYC Republican]

Instead of being a bunch of purist losers in CA, you should get with it and understand that a Republican doesn't have to agree with you on every issue. You should understand that he doesn't have to 100% conform to YOUR views. Instead of taking 70% of a Republican, you insist on 100% of a conservative

Instead of taking 70% of a Republican, you insist on 100% of a SOCIALIST/COMM.

By the way, NYC IS a great place to live.

[Coop]

Those numbers are only what McClintock would get if Arnold drops out. So even if Arnold drops out of the race, McClintock would still be 6 points behind.

I know, and 6 points is within the margin of error. The Dem:GOP ratio in CA is about 45:35. Bustamante is not surprisingly pulling his base, while McClintock is overachieving. Just imagine what he'll be able to do if he does get all of Arnie's resources and headlines. There's still a month left here.

Now ask yourself. Which group, Dems or Pubbies, will be most fired up to turn out to vote for the recall? That's another advantage the Pubbie candidate(s) should have.

[Texas_Dawg]

I know, and 6 points is within the margin of error.

Do you think Arnold is dropping out of the race?

[af_vet_rr]

The real question is ... do we want Arnold or Cruz... that's what it comes down to...

So the CA voters are reduced to picking between two liberals? If only a few more Republicans would wake up and vote for a true Conservative.

[Coop]

Do you think Arnold is dropping out of the race?

It's hard to say what will happen, but for now I'd call it doubtful. This poll simply demonstrates that everyone saying there's no way McClintock can win is wrong. He can win, though he's certainly still fighting an uphill battle. I was ambivalent about Schwarzenegger (and this entire recall), but he's really underwhelmed me since announcing. If Bustamante wins, it won't be McClintock's fault, it will be Arnold's. He had all the numbers and headlines, and let them/helped them be whittled away.

[Texas_Dawg]

This poll simply demonstrates that everyone saying there's no way McClintock can win is wrong.

How does it say that? It says that even if Arnold drops out (and there is no chance in the world that is going to happen), McClintock would STILL lose by 6 points.

So if Hell freezes over, the guy still will get beaten. Don't get me wrong, Arnold is a total moron and I disagree with just about everything he claims to stand for. That being said, if I lived in California, I would vote for him in a second.

[Coop]

I don't think you really have a grasp on polling science, media momentum, limited vs. extensive campaign resources, etc.

You would have been among the many last year proclaiming Janet Reno was a shoo-in for the Dem gubernatorial candidate. Her lead was more impressive than these, yet she lost to McBride. And I would say that was a much more stable race than this one.

[Texas_Dawg]

So explain how I'm wrong then. McClintock is currently 20 points (or more) behind. How does he close that in 1 month?

[Doctor Stochastic]

Johann Georg Albrechtsberger has the longest non-hyphenated surname of any famous German composer.

[jmc813]

By the way, NYC IS a great place to live.

I agree. You really need to dump Bloomberg though.

[Coop]

1) 20 points could be higher or lower based on a poll's margin of error. That's why it's important to look at trends across polls. McC's support has been steadily increasing.

2) Other rivals continue to drop out (a al Simon and now Ueberroth) to continue sending supporters to McC.

3) The higher he goes in numbers, the more people hear about him and pay attention to him. This is what happened to McCain. Once he broke about 15% in the polls, the media frenzy started, and it nearly led him to an upset of Dubya.

4) Davis hasn't yet launched his big guns on Arnold, and I expect he will. Hopefully the disillusioned Arnold voters go to McC instead of Bustamante or elsewhere.

5) McClintock is now approaching numbers that show he has a legitimate chance of winning. This will loosen very important purse strings. Want a comparable three-way race? Look at Ventura's win in MN in 1998.

[TheAngryClam]

It's not as if the party hasn't screwed Tom multiple times by not coming through with the money they promised or anything.

The state GOP leadership sucks, and if they, and their pick of Arnold, gets defeated and humiliated, so much the better.

Duf and Parsky (and, if we can manage it, Rove too) must go.