Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[austingirl]

Thanks for the tip re: Java.

[inflorida]

You're right. At this point it is in God's hands.

[Lokibob]

Thats what I call the eye of the storm. TNX

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

[My Favorite Headache]

Christ...someone actually caught on to what I was thinking. Great catch!

Look in to the eye of the storm
Look out for the force without form
Look in
Look out, look around....

[Tuxedo]

I loved Hold Your Fire. I am seeing them in Cleveland on Nov 4th. It will be my sixth time. First time was Signals.

[Cold Heat]

Yes it does, as to the out flow. As the sun sets the outflow decreases and causes the occlusion of the eye. As to the wind speed, I suppose that could remain constant but it is unlikely to increase alot unless the water temp is very high.

I am not at all a weather freak, but huricanes are something I have been facinated with and they scare the hell out of me. I have seen the damage they can do.

It is like no human being ever was in the area. All traces are erased.

[Milwaukee_Guy]

Current Conditions in SE LA,

---

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

LAZ056>069-030300-
ASSUMPTION-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND ISLE...HOUMA...METAIRIE...NEW ORLEANS
810 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

.NOW...
...OUTER SQUALL BANDS FROM HURRICANE LILI CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOUISIANA...
LARGE BAND OF TROPICAL RAINSHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NORTHWEST TO ASSUMPTION AND IBERVILLE PARISHES. THIS BAND WILL ROTATE
NORTHWEST THROUGH 10 PM AND PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS UPWARDS
TO 40 TO 50 MILES AN HOUR IN THIS BAND ARE POSSIBLE.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/la/shortterm.html

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

So, based on your triangle geometry, we are talking about 7000 sq. miles of area with major effects....correct?

1/2bh, right? Roughly 40*150, or 6,000 sq. mi. Yep. 6-7ksq miles sounds about right.

[southernnorthcarolina]

There's been a lot of talk, understandably so, about the vulnerability of New Orleans to a major hurricane, especially with respect to the adequacy of its levees and dikes.

But what about Baton Rouge? To what extent is it vulnerable to flooding from the river or otherwise? Or even to a storm surge? Granted, its 75 miles or so from the gulf shore; with an elevation of about 20 feet above sea level, could there be a problem? If Lili comes ashore, say, near Morgan City (a touch east of the current consensus, but certainly plausible), and the eye passes a few miles west of Baton Rouge, they'll feel the "bad side" of the storm.

[FireTrack]

Hmmmm, She should call the the local Sherrif's office or maybe her local radio station to verify. Sometimes they close a road going in but almost always they will allow traffic out. I'm 1 hour north and find it hard to believe it's that bad there already. It isn't even due to hit land for another 12 hours.

[kinghorse]

Where's SamAdamsImSoSure these days? No more Mainland Canes this year? Yeah right.

[WFTR]

I'm in Gonzales, and I just checked the tracking map. It's headed this way right now. I still think that I'll try to ride it out. I've followed the wind map at Weather Underground, and the zone of heavy winds is pretty tight. A near miss might not be too bad.

How close are you?

A Great American Chickenhawk
Bill

[dennis1x]

he checked in earlier.

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

141kt....translates to true 140mph at the surface.

But 140-145 has been forecast. The wild card is how narrow the warm layer in the northern GOMEX is - NHC seems to think thin, maybe it is even thinner. Could have been churned more by Isadore than estimated.

That would cause a weakening prior to landfall.

Keep in mind, though, Lili seems to be going to an eye cycling. That would decrease wind speed slightly until the new eyewall is formed up. Waiting for next round of data.

[Conservababe]

Night time is the scariest time for all diseasters and the aftermath. Just imagine yourself in the dark without but a flashlight or artificial light. No telephone or electricity or running water. Perhaps even no shelter or food. No transportation. No police protection, even, from the looters from outlying areas. One returns to a primitive state of survival for days and nights.

[CedarDave]

Check out post #477, please.

[kinghorse]

Looks like it's getting drawn straight up. Look out New Orleans.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_east_loop-12.html

[My Favorite Headache]

Tampa on next Thursday,then West Palm the next night on Friday, then Atlanta next Sunday for me. These will be shows number 41,42,43 for me.They will be #3,4,5 for this tour. Wait til you see them if you haven't this tour. Best they have been since the Grace tour.

[Black Agnes]

I can't picture anyone brave enough to loot 'Boudreaux' after he's just been 'hurricaned'. 'Boudreaux' probably has more firepower than the national guard in most north eastern states. I'm thinkin' looting 'Boudreaux' might be a really really really bad idea.

[Cold Heat]

The problem with NO deals directly with the pump capcity and the places where the water is being pumped.

Baton Rouge is high and dry by comparison.