Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Winds are up to 45mph and gusts to 55mph+ in New Iberia(and increasing), so power may be out. At least it looks like the eye will miss him.

[ET(end tyranny)]

Jeff Morrow is in New Iberia and says 55 to 60 mph winds. Says a large hotel sign is ready to go. Thinks trees re going to be ready to go soon, too.

[ET(end tyranny)]

At least it looks like the eye will miss him.

Not by much according to Morrow.

[Diddle E. Squat]

New Iberia looks to be still 25+ miles from the roughest looking portion of the eyewall.

[ET(end tyranny)]

Looks like that ferry cam is working, just can't make much out. Been checking it now and then. Sometimes it is just solid grey, and times like now it shows light and dark areas. Must be that area is getting hit hard and has been for some time.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Here's some radar links:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/station.asp?ID=LCH19

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.klch.shtml

[ET(end tyranny)]

Clicked on that first link. Looks like New Iberia is taking the worst right now.

[Marie Antoinette]

LOL! Yeah :-) But that just makes me worry more.

[dittomom]

G'mornin' Marie! Just waking up to find out the good news that the storm has downgraded, but the bad news is this storm is still gonna be pretty nasty for my family in Lafayette (NW of New Iberia where Uncle Sham is).

[4Freedom]

'PING!'

[Scuttlebutt]

"My cousin is in Slidell. What do you know about things there?"

We are getting some heavy rainfall and wind gusts up 40 kts (guesstimated) now in south Slidell.

So far, the tidal surge on Lake Ponchartrain is not that bad. They are estimating the surge to be only 3' - 5' this time which will be considerably less than we got last week.

[Cloud William]

I watched 3 minutes of Donahue last night with Maria Shriver...he looked like someone kicked him in the balls he was so depressed.

Now that my power is back on here in Metairie, LA, I can post my smarty-pants reply:

Phil's balls are perfectly safe... in Marlo's purse. ;-p

[Cloud William]

When I think of Louisiana (and I've never been there), the first word that pops to mind is "Tabasco!" Other words soon follow: Mardi Gras, moss, snakes...and lately, Hurricanes!

[austingirl]

Have we lost our friends in Louisiana - power outage? My prayers are with you for your safety. I hope to see you checking in soon.

[dennis1x]

interesting 11am discussion from NHC....to be noted is that every major hurricane in the gulf in October since 1886 has done the exact same thing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200213.disc.html

[CedarDave]

I suspect so. They are in the heart of it now. But, it is a lot weaker than last night at this time. Latest discussion from the NWS:

Hurricane Lili Discussion Number 49 Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 03, 2002 A very interesting event occurred with Lili in the past 24 hours. It intensified rapidly to a strong category four hurricane and weakened to a category two as fast as it strengthened. There will be many explanations after the fact...and perhaps many phd dissertations. I am glad there will be some. The truth is that nobody was able to predict these sudden changes in intensity. Currently...there are ongoing research projects on intensity change. Including the United States weather research program...uswrp. Hopefully these efforts will help US predict such events in the future. For whatever reason...Lili weakened...and made landfall on the Rainey Refuge on the west side of Vermillion Bay around 1400 UTC with 85 knot winds...a category two hurricane. Initial intensity at the advisory time is 80 knots and these winds are confined to a small area just to northeast of the center. The hurricane is moving northward at 14 knots and the northern half of the circulation is already inland. The eye is on the coast just southwest of New Iberia and both radar and aircraft indicate that the eyewall is no longer well defined. A rapid weakening should continue today. Lili should become embedded within the flow of a mid-latitude trough and become extratropical by 36 hours or so as it moves toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed over the eastern United States. Forecaster Avila forecast positions and Max winds initial 03/1500z 29.8n 92.2w 80 kts...inland 12hr VT 04/0000z 32.1n 92.4w 35 kts...inland 24hr VT 04/1200z 35.0n 90.5w 30 kts...inland 36hr VT 05/0000z 40.0n 85.0w 25 kts...inland 48hr VT 05/1200z...absorbed

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[CedarDave]

Good morning Dennis. Posted my message just as you posted the link. You called it yesterday. The observations show it is happening; just have to figure out why.

Have lots of work to do today, spent way too much time on here yesterday. Will check back for updates after lunch -- I know it will be awhile (maybe days) before those FReepers in the storm's path check back in.

[FireTrack]

"Have we lost our friends in Louisiana - power outage? "

We are just now starting to get the wind effects in the central part of the state. Looks to be moving due North after coming ashore slightly West of New Iberia. Wind speed greatly diminished but slow movement is going to create large amount of damage.

We're under a tornado watch until 10:00 PM tonight!

[WFTR]

I couldn't sleep for a long time last night but finally nodded off around six in the morning. I dozed for about four hours and listened for changes. At about 10 this morning, I got up to look around. It's stopped raining here and the standing water has drained from the front yard. I had about three and a quarter inches in my rain gauge. That's about the same rate that I had for Isidore. I had one piece of siding that was slightly loose. I might have lost a shingle, but I'm not certain. It's blowing pretty hard out there, but the wind map at Weather Underground shows me on the ragged edge of the tropical storm force winds and well away from the hurricane winds. I'm thankful to have missed the worst of this one. Our thoughts and prayers should be with the folks in Lafayette. They'll get the worst of this one.

WFTR
Bill

[KC Burke]

Thanks for the update, Bill. Its great that you didn't have to take to the "white-water-RV", LOL.