Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[newsperson999]

dennis I think that they haven't got to the area where the highest winds are..it says it was measures in the SE quad..the North or NE quad..I say winds down to 125 or so

[not-alone]

If you have garbage bags put anything you want to keep in them , that saved many of my things , the winds can put debri everywhere , anything leather, even shoes and bags inside closets were ruined. Also a good way to protect anything electrical. There is usually no way for days after to get anything cleaned or dried.

[petuniasevan]

Sounds like you and your family had a rough ride back then. Wasn't that in 1964? Bad storm indeed!

Tropical weather fascinates me. I just finished reading Isaac's Storm for the third or fourth time.
I spent 3 years in Louisiana while in the Air Force. I've seen how low the land is there for miles upon miles inland; I hope everyone who needs to evacuate does.

What's odd is I never experienced tropical weather while there, but I did as a child in Southern California.
Though it had been downgraded below tropical storm status after making landfall in Baja, "Hurricane Kathleen" still made a mess of the Los Angeles basin back in September of 1976. Rain poured as if from buckets and flooded out entire communities. Wind damage was widespread. What a day that was!

[dennis1x]

it appears that the eyewall structure collapsed for some reason...the recon mentions "open ESE-WSW". hard to see why....not because of dry air or lack of convection.

[chnsmok]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 02, 2002



it appears that Lili has peaked based on the plethora of dropsonde
and flight-level wind data collected by both Air Force reserve and
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft this evening. The strongest winds
observed were 196 kt at 848 mb and 183 kt at 933 mb from
dropsondes...and 141 kt observed at the 700 mb flight-level. All of
this equates to approximately 125 kt at the surface...which is
supported by step-frequency microwave data of 125 kt obtained from a
NOAA research plane. The pressure has also risen from 938 mb to 942
mb during the past 5 hours...further indicating that Lili has likely
peaked. Having said that...Lili is still a very formidable category
4 hurricane. The upper-level outflow has become elongated
northwest-southeast...but there are no signs of any significant
shear or dry air entrainment. Also...the wind radii were increased
slightly based on surface analyses provided by the aoml/hurricane
research division.
The initial motion estimate is 330/14...but this is based on the
assumption that a more north-northwestward track will resume
shortly. Radar and recon fix data over the past 6 hours actually
indicate a steady motion of 325/14. The steering pattern remains
solid with 03/00z upper-air data indicating a 700 mb and 500 mb high
centered over central Georgia with a wrap-around ridge extending
westward to northern Louisiana and then southwestward to the central
Texas coast. This ridge orientation should keep Lili moving in a
general north-northwestward direction until landfall occurs Thursday
morning...after which a turn to the north should occur. The latest
track model guidance has shifted slightly to the east...but remains
very tightly packed toward a landfall over eastern Vermillion Bay.
The official forecast track is shifted slightly to the east of the
previous track...but it still keeps the center and core of Lili well
to the west of New Orleans...but unfortunately takes the center just
west of Baton Rouge as a hurricane.
While there will be fluctuations in the intensity possibly due to
eyewall replacement cycles...the previous forecast landfall
intensity of 125 kt...or 145 mph...is maintained for this advisory.
Even though the sustained surface winds may even weaken some...Lili
is expected to be at least a category 3 or major hurricane at
landfall. Also...the extrememly strong dropsonde winds previously
mentioned could also briefly make it down to the surface as wind
gusts. And finally...although Lili will start to weaken once it
moves inland...the strong winds just a few hundred feet above the
surface will not weaken as quickly as the surface winds...which
means that high rise structures could experience sustained winds of
at least one category higher than what is occurring at the surface.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/0300z 27.2n 90.6w 125 kts
12hr VT 03/1200z 29.2n 91.5w 125 kts
24hr VT 04/0000z 31.8n 91.5w 70 kts...inland
36hr VT 04/1200z 35.2n 89.5w 40 kts...inland extratropical
48hr VT 05/0000z 39.7n 84.8w 30 kts...inland extratropical
72hr VT 06/0000z 45.5n 72.0w 30 kts...inland extratropical

[dennis1x]

may be....of more importance is the higher pressure and open eyewall.

[seeker41]

Estimates on the Galveston storm was 8,000 to 12,000 lost souls. A good read on that storm is called "Issac's Storm", written from the notes and experiences of Issac during the storm. He was the meterologist who sounded the warning, but most didn't listen.

[Uncle Sham]

"it appears that the eyewall structure collapsed for some reason...the recon mentions "open ESE-WSW". hard to see why....not because of dry air or lack of convection. "

I think it was all of everyone's prayers on our behalf. That or the fumes from the Tobasco factory.

[seeker41]

hmmm. maybe dry air. There is alot of drier air along the coast of Texas and south that it could have sucked up..

[bonfire]

LOL!

[spunkets]

Your right. I was thinking, 1 atmosphere=14.7 psi=70 ft. water, but 70 ft of water is ~30psi. I was thinking plumbing, it's late.

[dennis1x]

well hopefully it means that instead of catastrophic 140 mph winds in the eyewall (wherever that ends up going) the worst may be 100-120 mph which is still going to leave a path a damage but there really is a huge difference between 100 and 120 and 140. we are also just reading reports and are in no way experts or in the loop.

i have noticed a poorer and poorer satellite presentation though and the higher pressure seems to back up the theory of somewhat substantial weakening.

[abner]

Night all. Hopefully everyone will be safe!

[John Jamieson]

Your argument still holds, but the math didn't look right.

[Wingsofgold]

On that possibility, I'm packin it in. Goodnight folks. Sleep safe.

[newsperson999]

it could be just eye-wall repalcement too......there is no other reson why.unless of course the government is secretly trying out cloudseeding or something and it worked,,ie project stormfury...I'm kidding of course

[dennis1x]

again, stress, this is just an observation, noone should take this discussion of possible weakening into account when making their plans.

[My Favorite Headache]

Could it be that it is trying to re-develop a new center or a 2nd eye? I have seen it happen and screw with the hunters during night flights. The eastern eye wall or part of the storm rather, has been reported as the strongest part (as usual as all hurricanes are stronger on the eastern side of the wall),I think this will landfall at 130-135 like I said before. It will be quick..and deadly. Just like Andrew. No more than 6-8 hrs of hell.

[bonfire]

Nite. Don't let your guard down! Be well.

[dennis1x]

very well could be.....and the one thing that hasnt followed yet is warming cloud tops....still very cold, impressive convection.