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A Democratic warning sign in Michigan
NBC 'News' ^ | August 18, 2026 | NBC Staff

Posted on 08/18/2026 7:14:56 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin

A Michigan Senate poll offers warning signs for Democrats (Analysis by Sahil Kapur)

While polls show a political environment favorable enough to Senate Democrats that they’re competitive in several states where President Donald Trump won by double digits, a new survey offers a sobering reality check in must-win Michigan.

Days after progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated moderate Haley Stevens in a highly competitive Democratic primary this month, a Fox News poll conducted by a bipartisan pair of polling firms found El-Sayed trailing Republican nominee Mike Rogers by 4 percentage points, 51%-47%.

The same poll also looked at the race for governor and found Democrat Jocelyn Benson leading Republican John James by 5 points, 52%-47%. Both spreads are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

The most worrying finding for El-Sayed in the poll may be that his weakness compared to his Democratic ticket-mate isn’t limited to any specific demographic. He’s underperforming Benson among just about every group — including men (by 4 points), women (by 8 points), white voters (by 5 points), Black voters (by 11 points), college-educated voters (by 4 points), voters without a college degree (by 7 points) and even voters under 30 (by 7 points).

The starkest deficit is among independents: Benson is winning them by 18 points, or 56%-38%, while El-Sayed is losing them 5 points (48%-43%) in the same poll.

There are caveats. El-Sayed just broke free of a bitterly contested primary that divided the Democratic Party — and while Stevens has fully endorsed him, those wounds will take time to heal. By contrast, Benson coasted to her nomination without much competition, allowing her to pivot to the general election early.

Rogers has also proved to be an adept candidate, serving in Congress as a mainstream conservative from 2001 to 2015 and more recently gaining Trump’s endorsement to help him with the MAGA base. He only narrowly lost a 2024 Senate race, and he’s trying to avoid weighing in on contentious issues and instead keep the focus on Democrats.

El-Sayed ran on a message that a populist progressive like him is better suited than an establishment Democrat to carry the mantle of change and to speak to the needs of struggling middle-class and low-income Americans. Now he has to prove it — and the stakes are high for both the progressive movement and the Democratic Party.

Without holding on to Michigan, the party’s already tough path to netting four seats and winning a Senate majority narrows dramatically.

El-Sayed has 11 weeks to make up the deficit. But the early findings show that he has a lot of work to do.


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: abdulelplatner; elections; michigan; politics; socialistdemocrats

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The most worrying finding for El-Sayed in the poll may be that his weakness compared to his Democratic ticket-mate isn’t limited to any specific demographic. He’s underperforming Benson (R) among just about every group — including men (by 4 points), women (by 8 points), white voters (by 5 points), Black voters (by 11 points), college-educated voters (by 4 points), voters without a college degree (by 7 points) and even voters under 30 (by 7 points).

Without holding on to Michigan, the party’s already tough path to netting four seats and winning a Senate majority narrows dramatically.

1 posted on 08/18/2026 7:14:56 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Demonicrat want Michigan destroyed. They’ll do it by getting the worst traitors elected, or by violence if they can’t steal elections.


2 posted on 08/18/2026 7:19:47 AM PDT by Carl Vehse (Make Austin Texas Again!)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Would NBC ever write this about a Republican candidate:

“El-Sayed has 11 weeks to make up the deficit.”


3 posted on 08/18/2026 7:20:08 AM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Who in the hell in their right mind would vote for a cheap, two bit punk like Abdul El-Kabong? Michigan must be hard up for politicians.


4 posted on 08/18/2026 7:21:22 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Socialism is the same clown show that gave us out of control global illegal immigration.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Abdul is behind in almost every group except one. College indoctrinated white women…of course.


5 posted on 08/18/2026 7:21:52 AM PDT by iamgalt
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

progressive Abdul El-Sayed
moderate Haley Stevens


6 posted on 08/18/2026 7:26:01 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the revolution.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
Hi Diane! They are currently discussing El Sayed on Glenn Beck. Mother, (not step mother) supported terrorist Osama Bin Laden. El Sayed stated he would not be running for President in 2028 (What candidate who has never won a contest does that??) They talked about that Obama who managed to win the presidency with basically NO experience.

(They have moved on, but I info will be out there somewhere)

Regarding Hong...so wacky! Might have been better to run against her.

7 posted on 08/18/2026 7:27:14 AM PDT by Pete from Shawnee Mission ( )
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To: iamgalt
Abdul is behind in almost every group except one. College indoctrinated white women…of course.

Turns out the Handmaid's Tale cosplayers really do want to dress like that in real life.
8 posted on 08/18/2026 7:27:26 AM PDT by Antoninus (Confusion and disorder to the Left.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Hah-—feels sooooo good.


9 posted on 08/18/2026 7:27:44 AM PDT by Liz (“The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies the work of Hig hands." (Psalm 19:1))
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To: iamgalt

Collegiate educated white “women” supporting Abdul is like the foolish Jews who supported Hitler


10 posted on 08/18/2026 7:30:01 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Schiff to GITMO)
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To: BigEdLB

Yes this group is a clear and present danger. They vote and they vote in packs and there are enough of them to tip a tight election. Watch the Texas and Mi Senate races closely.


11 posted on 08/18/2026 7:41:56 AM PDT by iamgalt
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To: Pete from Shawnee Mission

Turning on Glenn Beck now - doesn’t he have on guest hosts all this week?


12 posted on 08/18/2026 7:42:30 AM PDT by Bon of Babble (You Say You Want a Revolution?)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Checked how long votes can be counted in Michigan after election day:

“Standard Certification Deadline: Local county boards of canvassers must officially certify results within 14 days after Election Day.”

14 days is a long enough time for Democrats to figure out how many more votes they need to make up any deficit for their candidate.


13 posted on 08/18/2026 7:43:50 AM PDT by Bon of Babble (You Say You Want a Revolution?)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

How is this taqiyya talking, mentally ill, misogynist meditating murder MoFo in the republic?


14 posted on 08/18/2026 7:45:43 AM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
What is most gratifying about this poll is that the Islamic supremacist is actually underperforming more with women than men.

Hallelujah! Are our female voters FINALLY getting the message that Islamic supremacists want them to be second class citizens in every way and worse?

15 posted on 08/18/2026 7:48:50 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (The politicized state destroys many aspects of civil society, human kindness and private charity.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

By November it be 14 points and he will drag lots of down ballot rodents with him. Here is some free advice for the Surrender Monkeys: Stay away from Michigan or look dumber than usual.


16 posted on 08/18/2026 7:51:46 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
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To: iamgalt
College indoctrinated white women…of course.

The first ones that Islamic supremacists would force into burkas and terminate their education at sixth grade under Sharia Law. So blinded by their hatred of all things conservative that they ally with Islamofacists!

17 posted on 08/18/2026 7:52:48 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (The politicized state destroys many aspects of civil society, human kindness and private charity.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
Fox News polls have historically underestimated support for GOP candidates and there is no evidence they have done anything to improve their accuracy.

If Fox shows Rogers ahead by four points, his actual lead is likely closer to double digits.

Still, we should not assume victory. We need to treat this race as if it were tied.
18 posted on 08/18/2026 7:55:46 AM PDT by Dan in Wichita
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Expect a major Dem/MSM blitz to tell us Sayed is just a regular guy between now and November.


19 posted on 08/18/2026 7:59:59 AM PDT by misterdarcey (Abandon all nuance, ye who enter here.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin; All
Thank you for referencing that article Diana in Wisconsin.

A Democratic warning sign in Michigan


As a side note to this thread, please consider the following.

As mentioned in related threads, if anti-Trump polsters have access to Democratic gerrymandering maps, then poll results can probably be rigged in favor of Democrats as much as election results now allegedly are. So it's possible that the Democrats are even worse off than poll results are now suggesting.

That being said, patriots need to win 2026 elections by record-breaking margins for Trump legacy.

20 posted on 08/18/2026 8:07:38 AM PDT by Amendment10
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