Posted on 05/01/2026 5:47:20 PM PDT by CFW
We’re approaching 60 days of the so-called Iran war, and we’re still getting these loud voices that Donald Trump has failed, that the war’s not going well.
It’s completely nonempirical. It’s antithetical to the evidence.
Here we are at 60 days, and Iran is losing about $500 million in input per day. It’s running out of storage space in a week or two for its daily output of oil, at which point they either have to stop pumping or they’re going to have—if they don’t stop pumping—their wells will collapse.
They either have to stop pumping, or they have to build, as fast as they can, storage facilities, which will be known to us and we can take out.
So, they’re at the brink economically. They have no military ability. The course of the war, how it ends, is entirely in the hands of the United States. It depends on whether you want an unconditional surrender and you want to pay an extra price—maybe another month or two—with economic strangulation, or you want to use air power to take out bridges, and you can do that.
What I’m getting at is it’s not a military problem like Afghanistan and Helmand Province, or the Marines having to go into Fallujah in Iraq. It’s entirely a political problem. It’s not a military problem. The military problem has been solved. It’s just a question of how much political price does President Donald Trump—or risk, I should say—want to take to get an unconditional surrender and the removal of the regime.
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Copilot [Worldometer]
“Iran’s oil production in 2024 was about 4.63 million b/d”
“Iran’s oil consumption in 2024 was about 1,953,251 barrels per day b/d”
The Iranian government is still getting oil revenue from nearly half its normal oil production. If Iran charges market prices for oil domestically, Iran’s wholesale oil revenue would be down about 30%. Iran’s taxes and profits on domestic retail fuel sales would be unchanged or increased.
The Iranians only have slow oil extraction by somewhat more than half.
The idea that Iran will be forced to deal because its oil industry will suffer greatly from a blockade is absurd.
“Iran’s oil consumption in 2024 was about EXACTLY 1,953,251 barrels per day b/d”
Pakistan needs oil.
A tanker truck might carry 5,000 gallons and get 5GPM.
It’s about 500 miles from an Iranian pipeline to some major Pakistani cities.
That’s 200 gallons out of 5,000 gallons, or 4%.
Does Pakistan have enough trucks? No, but it has some.
I’ll use calculated to be going forward.
Um, I think I'll go with VDH on this. I really respect him.
What!!?!?!!?? You would think that Victor Davis Hansen ( his real name ) is smarter than Brian Griffin ( the dog on Family Guy )??
That would only be true if consumption is level which is highly unlikely
Who has the U-235?
(and Iran is losing about $500 million in input per day)
Good
so they keep pumping and dumping it into the strait. then ignite it.
Vdh
Iran still has working oil pipelines going to Russia, and Putin is Iran’s buddy
“How to Evade a Naval Blockade 101”
Our very own Baghdad Bob.
What a totally absurd statement that is...
Straight out of the communist Hakeem Jeffries' playbook...
Nice try, Hakeem...
The Germans.
Keep hoping for your country to fail, so Trump will look bad. Nice...
The regime did a pretty effective job of crushing dissent but the people there only hate the regime even more. Once that fear is gone it will cave in just like what happened in Romania.
I wouldn’t be so sure - they are now using banned chemicals in their gas production to “fill the gap”... it’s only gonna get worse for them - especially if Greta finds out...
I believe the tense of the headline is wrong.
Rather than is, a more correct word is has.
Iran has lost
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