Posted on 10/08/2024 12:03:58 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Pollster Nate Silver said in his latest election forecast that the White House race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is likely to remain a toss-up until Election Day, now less than a month away.
“I’ve never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will,” Silver wrote in his column published Tuesday.
He argued that there were a few instances where it seemed like the election was swinging in one direction, “but they proved to be false starts.”
Silver pointed to when Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in late July and saw her poll numbers surge — a boost that did not last long, as “polls began declining after her convention when typically, this is one of the best periods of polling for a candidate.”
The veteran pollster also said there was a time when the election forecast indicated the race was shifting toward Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Soros and sons plus the secret puppet masters are rubbing their hands.
All according to plan.
It probably will remain a toss-up into December. Or January.
“We need to keep saying it’s a close Race so that when the Left steals it again, it is more plausible to the sheeple...”
What they said about Regan vs Carter
mark my words, this will all come down to Trumps get out the vote effort in Pennsylvania. If he gets an army of people on the ground there and gets everyone to vote early and properly fill out and deliver their ballots, he will win.
This isn't that era anymore. Election fraud is more advanced and more widespread.
How a stupid emptyheaded idiot who her own people called her is neck and neck with trump, how?
Nate Silver is not a “pollster”. He is a guy who interpret polling data.
Not to downplay PA, but that isn’t the only factor. North Carolina, Tennessee and now Florida are going to be major wild cards. These hurricanes will go down in history as the 2024 equivalent of the 2020 ballot harvesting
Yep, PA is key, all hands on deck.
Whether Nate Silver is right or not about it being a toss-up, it seems a sad reality - two leftist clowns vs a capable guy with a proven, net positive WH record.
It could be a "Thelma & Louise" kind of thing with our nation in the car.
Hard to argue this anything but a tossup election based on polling data. Even the polls that Trump is doing well in only show him by a couple of points nationally or in the key swing states. Well within the margin of error.
There are other reasons to argue this isn’t a true tossup, like fundamentals and “vibes”.
It isn’t rocket science. 2016 and 2020 were razor thin margins in the swing states and the polling suggests similar results this time.
This would be a landslide if either team had nominated a candidate with less baggage. I can’t think of a choice between two more flawed individuals in my lifetime.
Give us an Electoral Colege analysis, Nate.
Nate Silver’s butt status: Covered.
If we can just baaaaaarely squeak out a win with the best candidate in a couple hundred years, running against a complete retard.... I’d say its lost and we just don’t know it yet.
Gallup, the preeminent poll back then, had Carter overtaking Reagan the day before Election Day.
I remember that because I was devastated.
“2016 and 2020 were razor thin margins in the swing states” - Preposterous
“ndslide if either team had nominated a candidate with less baggage.” - Preposterous
KingofZion - Preposterous
“50/50? Does this guy think the popular vote elects a POTUS?
Give us an Electoral Colege analysis, Nate.”
Maybe he’s avoiding giving the bad news. IIRC, a Dem needs to win the popular vote by 2.5 - 3% to win 270+ in the electoral college.
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