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Posted on 08/10/2024 2:23:19 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
If there were any doubt whether Vice President Kamala Harris has transformed this year’s presidential election, Saturday morning’s latest New York Times/Siena College polls put it to rest.
In the first Times/Siena College swing state polls since her entry into the race, Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 4 points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. It’s a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls, which found Trump leading Harris and President Joe Biden by an average of 1 or 2 points each across the same three states.
Sometimes, it can be hard to explain why polls shift from week to week or month to month. In today’s polarized politics, it can even be hard to explain why voters ever shift at all. In this case, it’s easy: Harris’ entry into the race has upended the fundamentals of this election.
Until now, the basic dynamic of the race was driven by Biden’s unpopularity. It prevented Democrats from running their usual strategy against Trump and his MAGA allies: Make an election a referendum on Trump by running a broadly acceptable candidate. Millions of voters were left with an agonizing choice between two candidates they disliked.
With Harris riding an extraordinary wave of momentum at the top of the ticket, at least for now, the usual political dynamic of the Trump era has been restored. In the poll, at least 49% of likely voters in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin say they have a favorable view of her, a level neither Harris nor Biden obtained in any previous Times/Siena poll this cycle.
Whether this will last is an entirely different question.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
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More cheerleading by the NY Times for Kamala.
Unable to access crosstabs from previous polls by this outfit.
Items noticed. Women/Men ration W+3. Blacks 9%. Dems/GOP/Independents look VERY light on Independents, but PA does not have many and that may drag the numbers down.
Maybe the most startling thing is they did 1900 samples, but that divided to about 630 for each of the three states and that is an MOE of 4.5ish%.
I also saw a Trump lead in Michigan in the crosstabs. Maybe they missed the summary.
There is ZERO indication that insults or no insults are moving the needle at all. In a very general way, nobody’s mind is being changed by anything. Polls are moving only if there is a different presumption of who is going to turnout.
Anyway, 9% blacks is surprising — Michigan should balance scarcity in Wisconsin. Women+3 is a tad odd — but it is consistent with 2020 nationwide, and may not apply to those three states.
My overall read is this is not significant. The MOE is really wide.
What’s hilarious and proves your point that this is all propogsnda is the fact that the NY times ignores the fact that at the same time Sienna came out with their poll, a polling agency with a far better track record in 2020 came out with another poll showing Trump leading in almost all of these battleground states. Moreover, this other polling agency had larger samples. Here are the published results -
Trump Harris
ARIZONA 48 47
NEVADA 48 45
NORTH CAROLINA 49 45
PENNSYLVANIA 46 44
WISCONSIN 49 48
MICHIGAN 47 49
Source - Trafalgar Group (NV, NC, AZ, and PA, 1000 LV each) and InsiderAdvantage (MI and WI, 800 LV each) from August 6-8:
As the original poster noted, ignore the propogsnda. If the times had any integrity, they’d at least inform you that at the same time their poll by Sienna was issued, another pollster came out with a poll showing the opposite results. Additionally, they would let you know that Sienna’s polling in 2020 was way off of the final results in the battleground states and the other pollster (trafalgar) was almost dead on accurate in 2020. But then that would ruin the propogsnda narrative they are trying to sell you.
I am ignoring anything but believing it’s resulted in a 6 point swing is just silly
Trump needs to have a disciplined counter
Policy Policy and policy
America then, America now and which one we want for the future.
Better to counter that way than to spend the next few weeks calling her stupid and lowering the expectations of of those Americans who will be seeing the her future speaking events, DNC and debates.
The Democrats would have to be bat shit crazy to let her debate Trump. Let’s hope they are that stupid - but I doubt there will be any debates.
Yes - like in 2020, the Dems are controlling the narrative - both in the media (a given) and in the air war / living room campaign. that has an impact. The Harris campaign is advertising nationally and heavily. Zero presence and response from Trump’s campaign on many of these media outlets, just like in 2020. The base only gave adequate amounts of $$$ to Trump in the aftermath of his conviction and assassination attempt. Biden/Harris have been getting this amount of support consistently for years.
RE: a special kind of stupid
I think I’m an ordinary kind, not special, and I also doubt the magnitude of the alleged poll change but I have a feeling Kamala is being enthusiastically backed by nearly all blacks and many young people who agree “socialism is the best form of government.” Adding JD Vance = zero help. Adding Sen Tim Scott would have added black votes.
All the interviewed people a few weeks ago who are black said “If Kamala Harris doesn’t get to replace Biden it will be wrong.” Now they’re ecstatic.
And feminist women. Type who are for abortions and to “get a woman in charge up there” to improve everything like they see in hundreds of TV ads about dorky males needing to be taught and rescued by superior women.*
With God’s help we can reverse the trends and overcome them.
*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boSgMaMdcaY
Comment from someone on Reddit discussion:
He’s just the latest incarnation of The Weak and Pitiful Male.
God I can’t wait for that trope to end.
Kamala was never popular and is connected to a historically unpopular presidency . I find currently polling rather unlikely to say the least. Plus she has no platform
Yesssssss. Issues Issues issues
Just Win Baby.
I never believe anything that I don’t want to be true.
Instead, I adhere to anything that enables me to believe what I want to believe.
Trump will get 85% of the women’s vote because their issue is not legal abortion. Their issue is the border and crime.
Trump will get 40% of the black vote because the Democrats want to keep blacks on the plantation and the GOP is the party of Lincoln.
Trump will get at least 50% of the Hispanic and Asian vote because those groups are fundamentally conservative.
Trump will carry voters under age 30 because.....reasons.
Trump has this. Like 2020 and the Red Tsunami of 2022.
Conservatives can put their fingers in their ears and try to La La La this away. The game changed when Biden withdrew. Harris and Walz are proving to be very popular, so far. They have energized their base and their base is expanding, so far. They are drawing big crowds to their events, so far.
All of this may change, but right now, Trump appears to be struggling and JD Vance has not had much impact.
RCP 2024 Electoral College: No Toss-Up States
Trump/Vance 287
Harris/Walz 251
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
Unfortunately, Trump thinks he has this won and not really being all that serious about the race.. What he should be doing is running like he is 20 points behind, he is not. He should be out glad handing everyone he can.
From Indian to black?-)
The media may have changed the race for Harris, and that is the crux of the matter.
Run like it’s true because you can never tell how much truth there is to it.
People are stupid. It took years for them to believe what was fickin’ obvious and demoralizing about Biden. He’s out and they are Happy again. They haven’t met Kamala yet because she’s been in hiding. But she’s not Biden. So yea, I can believe that there was some initial pickup.
But, again, whether there is or there is not a bounce, run like you’re behind. Convince your friends not to get depressed nor complacent
“Zero presence and response from Trump’s campaign on many of these media outlets, just like in 2020. The base only gave adequate amounts of $$$ to Trump in the aftermath of his conviction and assassination attempt.”
Do you think it’s just due to lack of money, or is it some kind of strategy? I’ve been mystified that he’s done nothing more than hold rallies and call her cutesy names, while the Marxists are filling the airways 24/7. I’d be thrilled to be wrong, but I don’t see how his current efforts have moved the needle in his direction in the slightest.
Siena College + New York Times + Yahoo = Bull shiite.
The New York Times = Another Democrat P.R. Firm
How can you trust a paper that covered for Hitler?!
8 posted on 8/10/2024, 2:29:08 PM by Vaduz
Sooooo. Will this be the new norm. If you are behind in the polls. Then just drop out 100 days before an election and put in anyone that fits the part. Let the press do the dirty work.
So can say Robert Redford be the candidate.
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