Free Republic

Attitudes on abortion are deeply entrenched and have motivated voters across the American political landscape for decades. But in a post-Roe world, with abortion access sharply limited or at stake in several states, voters who want to protect abortion rights are increasingly energized. Although the economy remains the No. 1 issue for voters, a growing share of voters in swing states now say abortion is central to their decision this fall, according to New York Times/Siena College polls earlier this month. This represents an increase since May, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic presidential nominee. And by a...

If there were any doubt whether Vice President Kamala Harris has transformed this year’s presidential election, Saturday morning’s latest New York Times/Siena College polls put it to rest. In the first Times/Siena College swing state polls since her entry into the race, Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 4 points each in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin among likely voters. It’s a major shift from previous Times/Siena polls, which found Trump leading Harris and President Joe Biden by an average of 1 or 2 points each across the same three states. Sometimes, it can be hard to explain why polls...

Well, that was fast. When your humble correspondent first read the New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation poll this morning showing incumbent Mark Pryor suddenly surging into a ten point lead over challenger Tom Cotton in the Arkansas Senate race, my suspicious antenna immediately sensed something was wrong with the way the poll was conducted. However, I figured the Times wouldn't be so unsubtle as to make it easy to detect how erroneous the results were and that only polling experts would be able to dig through the reams of stats in order to point out the errors. I was wrong....