Posted on 02/26/2024 7:42:01 PM PST by DoodleBob
I’ve been taking the under on Nikki Haley for several weeks now and I’ve been wrong every time. So I looked under the hood on the South Carolina results and what I see is a signal that Trump is weaker than he looks.
Let’s start with the exit polls.
Haley kept it close: independent voters made up 22 percent of the electorate and she won them 62-37. South Carolina is an open primary, so this was a case of independents showing up to vote against Trump in a meaningless contest. That’s bad news for him.
Among people who thought the economy was either “good” (Haley +73) or “not so good” (Haley +1) Haley fought Trump to better than a draw.
This matters because Biden’s theory of the case is that the economy is good and people are going to recognize that. If Biden can even get voters to “ehhh, the economy is not so good,” suddenly voters are much less receptive to Trump.
Haley beat Trump by +9 with voters with a college degree. That’s expected, but still a point of weakness.
Not expected: Among married Republicans Trump was only +3. In recent elections, married voters have been a huge area of strength for Republicans—Trump was +7 among marrieds in 2020. South Carolina shows us that half of a core Republican bloc is turning out to vote against Trump even when his opponent has no chance of winning. Not great for him.
But it keeps getting worse: Nearly a third of the voters said that Trump isn’t fit to serve as president and Haley won them by Saddam Hussein numbers.
Last data point, which is something I’ve been fixated on since I did The Focus Group a couple weeks ago: Among voters who believe that Trump lost in 2020, his numbers are ghastly.
Important to note: 36 percent of the electorate said that yes, Biden won fair and square. And with those people, Haley was +64.1
I am growing convinced that forcing Trump to claim that he actually won in 2020—and belaboring that point over and over and over again—is a key to victory in 2024. When people see Trump lying about something they know isn’t true, it pits him against them, makes the relationship between Trump and the voter adversarial. The voters say, “Wait a minute, this guy is trying to scam me.”
And Trump is trapped because he’s so committed to the Big Lie that he can’t back down from it now.
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Side note: Long time readers know that I don’t do hopeium here. I might be the most fatalistic guy at The Bulwark. But I’m realistic, too, and the numbers here demonstrate very clearly that Trump has a couple of giant soft spots that can be exploited with voters.
If you want measured analysis—not cheerleading, but not doomscrolling either—then you should be with us this election. We don’t play both-sides games. We don’t platform bad actors. We see the world clearly and we fight for liberal democracy. That’s the job.
Come ride with us.
After writing this article he also said that dinner with Elvis was enjoyable last night
Wait, that's dumb. But he did make a case that I think he didn't want to: Nikki Haley is the same as Joe Biden and appeals only to his voters.
Nimrata is going to get creamed in Michigan tomorrow.
Is Texas winner take all?
Texas is not winner take all.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/texas-primary
“Delegates: 161
Allocation:
There are 47 statewide delegates and 114 congressional district delegates (3 per district).
In each case, winner take all where a candidate exceeds 50% of the vote.
Otherwise, allocation in each location depends on the number of candidates receiving 20% of the vote.”
#NeverNikki
“The Bulwark was founded in 2019 by Sarah Longwell, Charlie Sykes, and Bill Kristol. The idea, then and now, was to tell you what we think—with honesty and good faith.”
lol. The latest spin from Trump Hater Central.
I already knew what Kristol and Sykes were, but here’s the wiki bio for Sarah Longwell:
“Sarah Longwell is an American political strategist and publisher of the centrist news and opinion website The Bulwark. A member of the Republican Party, she is the founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, which spent millions of dollars to defeat President Trump in 2020.”
TDS should be listed as a true psychiatric disorder.
I am not kidding.
Trump won my NH town in 2016 and 2020.
In the 2024 primary, he won the town with 1150 votes - but Haley had 1008. I know a lot of those Republican Haley voters - and they are never, never, never going to vote for Trump in the Fall.
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Why does your town have so many Republicans who are anti Trump malcontents?
I don’t understand these people......at all.
+10101010101
I did a lot of research on Nikki voters.
Only about a third of them are registered Republicans.
If you include Republican leaning Independents that is probably another third.
Most are women—and they tend to be prosperous older women.
You are most likely to find them in college towns or centers of government (like state capitals).
They may be fiscally conservative but they are squishy on social issues like abortion or illegal immigration or even crime since they live in communities with low crime and no significant number of illegal aliens.
In a state like NH there is no illegal alien problem, crime rates are low (Whitopia), the economy is good—so they do not connect to the issues that we are concerned about....
Two more comments on why the Nikki voters like the economy:
—They own homes that have appreciated in value and either have no mortgages or got the old low interest rate mortgages so their housing situation is solid.
—They have retirement accounts so they have done well with the recent runup in the stock market.
The old saying—”Where you sit determines where you stand.”
They like the status quo.
In a state like NH there is no illegal alien problem, crime rates are low (Whitopia), the economy is good—so they do not connect to the issues that we are concerned about....
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cgbg,
Thanks.
I’m unfamiliar with New England states.
The Bulwark? LMFAO.
Let be explain how to follow the science:
—You need to take the percent of people supporting Trump and divide that by Avogadro's number.
—Multiply the folks supporting Haley by the universal constant for the speed of light in a vacuum.
—Then subtract an undefined (climate change model) quantity for Trump while adding a RINO boost of 7% for Haley which can't be explained.
The discussion is over. Gore said so.
The numbers prove, and fact checkers agree, that Trump really isn't liked all that much.
He has an excellent chance of doing that it’s basically what does the Republican Party stand for now it’s morphed into the party of the working class now and GOO elites like your friends in New Hampshire probably long for the days go Romney or McCain.
After that poll came out Gen Z running about 50/50 between Biden and Trump it’s not so much Trump has to pick them up it’s they Biden has lost them
Attention Governor Kemp
We remember the 40,000 citizen affidavits of election fraud.
You ignored the evidence in Georgia.
We haven't forgotten.pic.twitter.com/heZtRfVxNj— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) February 27, 2024
Fortunately you don’t have to crawl over broken glass. You can do like the Dems will do and vote early and often from the comfort of your couch at home.
She was the first candidate in decades to lose her home state, and that says more than the final numbers.
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