Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Hurricane IAN, LIVE, HITS KEY WEST
Fundraiser, chip in here https://gofund.me/e1a56b2c
Are you familiar with Bonita Springs
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bad side of storm but it may hit far enough north not as bad as FT myers
Eeye seems to be clearing out again, pressure down 2 MB and wind field expanding
also not slowing down speed wise yet
My folks are under mandatory evacuation from their assisted living facility at 3pm to day in Ft. Myers. (Brookdale assisted living.)
Thanks for the local Ft. Myers report.
Heh. I’m stealing that.
the blue models have consistently tracked the forecast to the east the past two days and the nhc forecast has been revising toward this direction. The three blue models are even still East of the nhc track. I suspect that if this pattern holds these are the better models and that the real landfall track will end up being directly to/between north port/cape coral, or even just south.
But those just my observations
We had frequent hurricanes in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The nice thing was there was nowhere to evacuate to. You had to hunker down and enjoy the destruction.
You trying to raise money for your kid or what. No one here is giving money to a YouTuber when money is needed for hurricane victims. Listen to CodeToad and leave this thread, but before you leave, tell us how all of these people are gonna charge their EVs when power goes out all across Florida?
I’m glad my family is able to evacuate.
“the blue models have consistently tracked the forecast to the east the past two days “
the blue models have consistently tracked the forecast to the east for over two days “
The European models have been pretty accurate. The forecast track has moved eastward as the GFSS models converge with the Euro models.
They are not only putting themselves in danger but they are also endangering those who might later be called upon to come out and rescue them. That should be reason enough for everybody deemed to be in an evacuation zone to get out of there.
Your point is valid, especially for those with limited resourcefulness, strength and ambulatory ability.
However, I’d like to respectfully modify your comment as follows...
Those who stay are not only putting home and valuables in danger, because they will not be able to get home “for their own safety”, as determined by the moral busybody statists, but the busybody will also allowing those who might later profit from the B&E thefts at their home and LEOs will NOT be called upon to come out and secure their homes, or arrest looters. That should be reason enough for everybody deemed to be in an evacuation zone to prepare with plans and resources and stay out IF you’re physically capable AND are not in danger of catastrophic storm surge.
Lessons learned from Andrew
Again, submitted respectfully, without intent on getting contentious.
The real-time satellite loop has nudged east of north for the past 2 or 3 hours.
blue models are the euro models?
Love that webcam and the tourists standing in front of the monument having pictures taken as the waves break over them. The commentary is funny too.
“blue models are the euro models?”
Euro models have changed very little. GFSS has almost converged with Euro.
Here’s a handy graphic that shows the track changes over the past 5 days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
Fort Jefferson in the Dry Tortugas is currently reporting:
81 degrees
Rain
Winds from the east at 38 mph
Humidity 92%
Almost 5 inches of rain in the last 24 hours
Barometric Pressure 29.59 and dropping
With it hitting farther to the south than previously predicted, now it looks like Charlotte Harbor is in big trouble. :(
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