Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Wow 28.05 is getting down there if we get a storm in the 27’s its usually at least a four as I recall.
How badly has this change of impact area screwed up those strung out on the road fleeing the storm? If they evacuated yesterday expecting landfall near the panhandle, wouldn’t some have fled INTO today’s path?
“The conversion I use is 1.15 kts = 1 mph”
I think it’s the other way around.
” If they evacuated yesterday expecting landfall near the panhandle, wouldn’t some have fled INTO today’s path?”
The path yesterday was not the panhandle. OTOH, Evacuation routes from the panhandle go inland to Alabama.
Thanks fish working today. Never ends. Looks like the keys are basically dodging a big bullet. Some of the NHC discussions referred to sheer in a day or two wonder if that still applies.?
I think most people evacuating the panhandle would go north into Georgia. Not much of a reason to go to Gainesville or Tampa, as it was long known these areas were in the cone. The people in Fort Myers and Naples who thought things were okay now have a short time to decide what to do.
The worst part about tracking exact landings of these storms is that it’s not unusual to have to wait until just a few hours before landfall to see what they will do. Especially, with the bigger systems.
They issued warnings for almost the entire state of Florida.
“I think most people evacuating the panhandle would go north into Georgia.”
Alabama. Big Bend goes to Georgis.
“They issued warnings for almost the entire state of Florida.”
Warnings have only ever been issued for SW Florida.
cloud tops cooling some again as it moves away from Cuba
seems to be jogging even more east (right of 5 degrees in the NHC advisory) more like 10 degrees now
Oh that sounds right on.
FYI Live in Florida storm chasing
LIVE HURRICANE IAN chase outer bands today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSr4WIBXOWM
“Warnings have only ever been issued for SW Florida.”
There is your argumentative idiocy again where you base such stupid comment on your childish google searches and Wikipedia results.
“European models had this days ago.”
The European model fails for most storms when many others are right, so what’s your ridiculous point? You sound like the idiot that claimed at every Space Shuttle launch that it will blow up and then claimed to be right when Challenger did.
“The European model fails for most storms when many others are right, so what’s your ridiculous point? “
The point is you are a troll and will take the opposite side even when you have to lie.
You need to leave this thread.
Are you familiar with Bonita Springs? My wife’s best friend lives there. How hard a hit does it appear she’ll get?
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