NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: Majorities oppose Supreme Court's abortion ruling and worry about other rights; Dems surge to seven-point lead on generic ballot

NPR ^ | 06/27/2022 | Domenico Montanaro

[SeekAndFind]

Majorities of Americans say they disagree with the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, think it was politically motivated, are concerned the court will now reconsider rulings that protect other rights, and are more likely to vote for a candidate this fall who would restore the right to an abortion, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

Still, a majority opposes expanding the number of justices who could sit on the Supreme Court.

In overturning Roe on Friday, the Supreme Court reversed 50 years of precedent that had made abortion a right in this country. The right to regulate abortion now is in states' hands, and about half the states have already moved to severely curtail access to an abortion or ban the procedure outright.

The issue is personal to most Americans. Two-thirds of people responding to the poll say they or someone they know has had an abortion. That was true of three-quarters of independents, 7-in-10 Democrats and 55% of Republicans.

Surveys have for years shown consistently that most Americans wanted to keep Roe in place and to see restrictions on when abortions could take place. What the court did is clearly outside the mainstream of public opinion, and that is reflected again in the NPR poll.

The survey of 941 respondents, conducted Friday after the decision through Saturday, has a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points.

A majority are against the decision

By a 56%-to-40% margin, respondents oppose the court's decision, including 45% who strongly oppose it.

Almost 9-in-10 Democrats and a slim majority of independents (53%) are against the decision. Three-quarters of Republicans, on the other hand, support it.

There is a massive split by education – 69% of college graduates oppose the decision while those without degrees are split. Half of whites without degrees support the decision, while two-thirds of whites with college degrees oppose it.

A majority of men and women are against the decision, though a slightly higher percentage of women oppose it (59% vs. 54%).

Along racial lines, 60% of non-whites and 54% of whites oppose the decision. (There were too few people surveyed to break out individual racial groups any further without margins of error getting too high.)

By a 57%-to-36% margin, respondents said the decision was mostly based on politics as opposed to the law. And by a 56%-to-41% margin are concerned that the overturning of Roe will be used by the Supreme Court to reconsider past rulings that protect contraception, same-sex relationships, and same-sex marriage.

Confidence in the Supreme Court is on the decline

Just 39% said they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the Supreme Court; 58% said they have not very much or no confidence at all in the institution. That's a low in the poll.

But few want to change the size of the court in the wake of the decision. Only a third of respondents said they were in favor of expanding the Supreme Court; 54% percent said they oppose that move.

Sixty-two percent of Democrats said they are in favor of doing so, but 57% of independents and nearly 9-in-10 Republicans were opposed.

People are more likely to vote now – particularly Democrats

This issue presents volatility into the 2022 midterms, because 78% of Democrats say the court's decision makes them more likely to vote this fall, 24 points higher than Republicans.

A bare majority of 51% say they would definitely vote for a candidate who would support a federal law to restore the right to an abortion, while 36% would definitely vote against such a candidate.

That could be a shot in the arm for Democrats if they mobilize around this issue, though Republicans are still favored at this point to take back the House this fall because of high inflation and gas prices.

Democrats have regained the favor of voters to control Congress, with 48% saying they are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in the fall and 41% more likely to vote for a Republican. In April, Republicans led on that question in the poll 47% to 44%, which was within the margin of error. However, the lead for Democrats may not translate into maintaining control due to the way voters are geographically distributed and how boundaries of congressional districts are drawn.

President Biden gets a 40% approval rating, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing.

[Pearfect]

N
P
R

NO POSSIBLE REALITY

DEMOCRAT LIARS

[HamiltonJay]

Don’t believe a 20 point swing at all…

Create a poll to support a narrative nothing more

[nicollo]

The only way to get these results is to

1) selective D survey (recent polls showed 80% D support for legalized abortion), whereas this one has 90% D’s against the ruling.

2) skew the ratio: Gallup’s Jan/22 poll showed D 29%, R27% and I 42%, which, if followed in this poll would yield about 55/45 against/for the ruling (even w/ 9/10 Ds against it). Therefore they had to push up the Ds to 35% w/ Is 40%+ and set Rs below 25%.

3) Pump the current emotion and use it as a push poll.

4) Hide behind the margin of error

[Jane Long]

Meanwhile, Marist.....

A mass exodus from the Democrats’ America

washingtonexaminer.com ^ | 5/25/2022 | staff
Posted on 6/27/2022, 8:11:27 PM by bitt

As the Washington Examiner reported this week, the end of the COVID-19 pandemic has done nothing to arrest the trend of people fleeing large cities in liberal coastal states for more pleasant and orderly locales, particularly in the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.

A mixture of unreasonable pandemic restrictions, rising crime, lawlessness, and hostility toward employers has forced this continued urban exodus.

A Census Bureau report released late last month shows which cities and towns have gained population and which have lost it. The data demonstrate that the states and cities that imposed the most draconian COVID-19 restrictions were very likely to lose population. But the fact is that the data are quite similar for the period between 2018 and 2019, when COVID-19 was not a consideration. What towns and cities gaining population generally have in common both before and during COVID-19 is that they generally live under laws made by Republicans. What towns and cities losing population have in common is that they generally live under Democratic rule.

It is hardly a coincidence that all 15 of the 15 fastest-growing cities and towns between July 2020 and July 2021 are in states that Republicans govern: Arizona, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Idaho. And 14 out of the 15 fastest-declining cities during the same period were in states that Democrats governed at the time.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4074437/posts

[odawg]

“But the media is intentionally lying to the public...”

Yes. The newsreader on the local TV newscast this morning said the Supreme Court outlawed abortion. I only wish they had.

[Trumpisourlastchance]

Most DemonCrats can keep murdering their offspring because they live in DemonCrat states that legalized child butchery.

So gas & good prices will determine the election, not this.

[redangus]

Talked to a liberal friend today and she made an interesting point. First, she said how do you overthrow the government? I told her I could help her there (Don’t want to end up in hole in DC for the rest of my life). She then said, ‘ Everybody has a price. I have a lot of liberal friends and they are pissed. They’ve all told me you can be all concerned about social sh*t until gas goes to $5/gallon. Then it becomes real, and you start to care about the important things like feeding your family, getting to work and pay for essentials.’

I’m sure abortion will move the needle for some college educated, suburban, White women, but for average working folk like my friend and her friends, it’s the economy, stupid.

[DannyTN]

I don’t believe this.

But it it were true and the nation votes Democrat to reinstate abortion, then our nation deserves what we get.

[angry elephant]

I think the TV has been telling people that the USSC imposed a national ban on abortions, and too many believe that.”

It is amazing that the most educated people seem to be the ones who believe what the media says and are incapable of reading the Constitution for themselves.

What is so difficult about the concept of states rights? Are there that many affirmative action doofuses who got a higher education and cannot read?

[italianquaker]

Poll of npr listeners lol

[Chgogal]

Bingo!

[TexasFreeper2009]

lol

its a single poll and isn’t much different from their last poll. Some pollsters simply poll more demcrats, which is why you look at the average of all polls and not a single one.

[TexasFreeper2009]

NPR/PBS/Marist 5/9 - 5/13 1213 RV republican 42 democrat 47 Democrats +5

this was their previous poll, taken way before the abortion ruling and it was just as much an outlier.

[Dave911]

You said it.

[willk]

“A lot of Suburban Moms are going to vote Democratic. Previously, they might vote Republican. So the GOP will have to replace their votes with the Hispanics. Just my .02”

The same ones who voted for Biden because they did not like Trumps mean tweets?

[JD_UTDallas]

There is going to be a ton of first time young voters this fall. I have helped register no less than 230 new college aged voters in my two summer lectures. Not all are Texans but most are. We won’t be having class on super Tuesday at all. Texas does week long early voting as well for anyone with a valid blue voters card. The polling place is on campus at the library. I’ll be giving extra credit for any student who writes an essay about their first voting experience or to be fair their current experience so as not to run foul with equality. It should not be a choice to vote it is a civic duty we should have mandatory voting like some European countries do but I digress I can only reward good behavior not mandate bad behavior.

[Gaffer]

Alrighty, then. This NPR/PBS/Marist poll should DEFINITELY show that the Democrats are NOT in trouble for this November elections, that Democrats will hold both arms of Congress and that King Humpty Biden will sail right on into a 2024 reelection.

All they’ve go to do is to “do it.” Ha!

[Soul of the South]

“So gas & good prices will determine the election, not this.”

On voting day the key issues for people are:

1). The economy and how they are affected. Hence James Carville’s focus in 1992 on electing Bill Clinton based on the “bad” economy.
2). Fear. Any major event or external activity which may threaten them or their loved ones personally. In 2020 that issue was Covid which explains why the Dems and media worked so hard to blame Trump. In 1968 that issue was the Vietnam War.
3). Major scandal erupting at the moment of voting. In 2000 the story of George W. Bush’s drunk driving incident was timed to land just as the voters went to the polls.
4). The individual’s political philosophy and which party aligns closest to it.

While many women are highly passionate about in favoring abortion, the number of women having abortions each year in a population of about 170 million females is small at 60,000 per year. When the overwhelming majority of women cast a ballot, they will not have had an abortion nor will they anticipate a real need for an abortion.

There is a high probability the economy will be much worse by fall than it is today. Companies in my area are quietly reducing a headcount. Instead of one massive layoff most firms are releasing a few people each week. Although the media isn’t talking about the disappearance of higher paid middle class jobs, people are picking up on family members and friends becoming unemployed. By fall acute food shortages may be upon us and the price of fuel higher than today. If people are struggling to find and pay for food and fuel in November, abortion will only be the decisive issue for women wanting an abortion at that moment and being unable to get one.

The other issue with respect to abortion is most abortion consumers are blacks and liberal whites. Neither group votes Republican. Hispanics tend and conservative whites tend to be anti abortion. Moderate women, who have children they love are unlikely to use their vote to promote the killing of children, particularly if inflation and supply shortages are causing their own families hardship. Single mothers in particular are going to be in a tough place with squeezed budgets and the prospect of job loss staring them in the face.

If the abortion decision had come October 15 it might have swayed some voters. Passions arising from a June court decision will be cooled by November.

Finally, the absence of major violence is telling. Either passions over the issue really aren’t as strong as the media is projecting or internal Dem polling is indicating violence on the scale of the 2020 riots would be perceived as very negative by voters. Riots and property destruction would certainly remind voters of Biden’s soft in crime policies.

Is anyone clear on what Republicans plan to actually do if they capture both houses of Congress? Apparently they now favor gun control and they seem to be working with the administration on immigration and the Ukraine war. I hear nothing about legislation to ensure vote integrity. Nor do I hear any concern about the DOJ and FBI assaults on civil liberty and due process. What policies are they proposing to end inflation and secure the border?

The biggest risk the Republicans face in the fall is rejection at the ballot box because they have no plan. Often people who are feeling pain stay with the devil they know because they have no idea if the alternative will be worse. People will be looking for a positive alternative. Today the GOP is not promising anything.

[ronnie raygun]

NPR, PBS, government run media

[mewzilla]

I think you nailed it.