Posted on 03/30/2022 10:10:13 AM PDT by Kevmo
Based upon interactions here on Free Republic and various other sources, this war is a war over resources: Oil, Natural Gas, Water, Aluminum... as well as strategic buffering and traditional tyrant terrorizing.
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https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050271/posts?page=119#119
To: gleeaikin Look at the Azov Natural Gas Preserves region, and then look at Russia’s Occupation Map. He has captured all the land mass of the preserve and all the access land to the underwater portion of that preserve.
Mariopol happens to be smack dab in the middle of it. All the shoreline of the Azov Sea West to just short of Odessa and then out to sea is the massive Azov Natural Gas Preserve.
Ukraine constituted a potential threat to Russia’s natural gas business.
119 posted on 3/29/2022, 4:13:40 AM by DoughtyOne (I pledge allegiance to the flag of the U S of A, and to the REPUBLIC for which it stands.)
The map on the right side, tells you all Russia wanted... Note the Southern Ukraine land grab.
LINK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Note the overlay from the land grab below. All land above this preserve, all land adjacent to the under sea portion of the Azov Natural Gas preserve...
LINK https://64.media.tumblr.com/b0de897e064daa66864fb2d3f06eef80/tumblr_n5k0yfhJmy1rasnq9o1_1280.png
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https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050519/posts?page=146#146
The Russians weren’t even interested in western Ukraine until oil was found there. Their interest is simply in raping that country. Russia gets 60% of its revenues from oil exports. Europe gets 40% of their oil from Russia.
In 2012 massive oil and gas reserves were found in Crimea. Crimea signed a $10 billion exploration contracts with Shell and Chevron to develop the new found oil and gas fields. These oil and gas products would compete in Europe with Russia’s oil and gas, reducing Russia’s oil revenues, which we recall amount to 60% of their total GDP. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, cancelling the contracts with Shell and Chevron.
But Ukraine still had massive reserves in, you guessed it, Donetsk and Luhansk, and other areas East of the Dnieper River. In 2019, Energy Secretary Rick Perry visited Ukraine, and soon after Ukraine awarded exploration contracts to a consortium of U.S. oil companies. Again, these oil reserves would compete in Europe with Russian oil, so Putin is invading Ukraine to shut down this latest attempt to extract Ukrainian oil and sell it in competition with Russian oil.
This explanation makes more sense to me than the “Putin feels threatened by NATO expansion” excuses for the invasion.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4044221/posts?page=1#1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CmdSzVFSKc
If the Ukes allow some small region in the west to be its own republic, but the OIL belongs to Ukraine, do ya think Pootypoot would allow that? Nope.
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Hunter Biden pitched himself as expert in Russian oligarch targeted by FBI: Devine 3/30/2022, 8:43:16 AM · 19 of 19 gleeaikin to bitt; Kevmo I have already commented elsewhere at FR regarding Russia’s seizure of Crimea, and actions to undermine Donbas and other eastern areas of Ukraine. Petroleum and gas deposits were discovered in both those areas in 2012, exploration contracts had been signed with major oil companies, and then in 2014 Putin seized Crimea and made the surrounding offshore areas forbidden to Ukraine. The oil contracts were canceled. This explains why total distruction is being rained on the cities in those areas. Putin doesn’t give a shxx about the cities and the people he is killing. The treasure is underground.
Now we see another part of the resource wars. Until recently the aluminum ore, bauxite, was being imported to Ukraine from Guinea, and then processed into Aluminia. This was then shipped to Russia for manufacture of aluminum objects of general commerce. The link below explains a lot about this business, and also mentions Hunter Biden.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-rusal-guinea/rusals-guinea-bauxite-exports-grind-to-a-halt-amid-ukraine-crisis-idUSL5N2VV3JU
It becomes ever clearer that Putin’s complaint with Ukraine has little to do with mistreated Russian language people in the Ukrainian east, and a whole lot to do with access to and control of important resources.
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https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050773/posts?page=14#14
I don’t think Putin is after a “formidable barrier” against NATO. He’s after the oil & gas.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050271/posts?page=123#123
Look at the Azov Natural Gas Preserves region, and then look at Russia’s Occupation Map. He has captured all the land mass of the preserve and all the access land to the underwater portion of that preserve.
Mariopol happens to be smack dab in the middle of it. All the shoreline of the Azov Sea West to just short of Odessa and then out to sea is the massive Azov Natural Gas Preserve.
Ukraine constituted a potential threat to Russia’s natural gas business.
Oil and gas reserves were discovered in the 3 places that have gotten the most attention from Russian jack boots. Putin needed a couple of years to organize his takeover of Crimea, and I remember seeing the reports of mercenaries from Russia moving into the Donbass to carry on their warfare back in 2014.
Nov. 2012 was right at the time oil/gas reserves in Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk had been discovered and oil companies were signing contracts to do exploration. No wonder Putin took over Crimea in 2014 and is now trying to take over the other two regions. It also explains why in 2014 he started sending in Mercenaries to east Ukraine to help enable them to defect from Ukraine.
gleeaikin searched for a Google page on this oiltopic. There are a lot of interesting articles to read here. I have not read them yet, but it appears there is probably a lot of petroleum to enable Europe to buy much of their needs from Ukraine rather than Russia.
At the very least, Putin has caused enough destruction in Ukraine, that any oil profits would have to go into rebuilding cities, rather than doing the kind of development that could make Ukraine an important modern European country. What a damn shame!!
https://www.google.com/search?q=Findings+of+oil+and+gas+in+Crimea+and+Donbass+region+around+2012&rlz=1CAJCUZ_enUS847&oq=Findings+of+oil+and+gas+in+Crimea+and+Donbass+region+around+2012&aqs=chrome..69i57.31411j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
What is most astonishing is the fact that so little has been mentioned about the whole Ukraine has petroleum reserves issue, and the places where they are constitute the precise main target of Putin’s massive attacks. He does not care about preserving the cities which he would if he was doing it for the poor ethnic Russians who are being treated so meanly by those nasty Ukrainians. Of course he does not care, what he wants is safely stored under ground. The heck with Ukrainian human beings. And this lack of humanity is reflected in so many consistently pro Putin posts. And their support of the Butcher of Moscow an insult to patriotic FReepers and Putin’s helpless Ukrainian victims.
This Feb. 2019 Forbes article clearly defines the great loss to Ukraine caused by Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea. Even if a plebecite should prove the people of Crimea prefer a totalitarian corruption ridden Russia to a corruption ridden Ukraine, at the very least the large “exclusion zone” shown in this article’s map should be reopened to Ukriane’s use and control regarding resources. An excellent sanction against Putin’s greed and cruelty.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/02/28/as-russia-closes-in-on-crimeas-energy-resources-what-is-next-for-ukraine/?sh=6aa8dbc529cd
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Mum on Ukraine’s Security Wish List, Putin Instead Sends a Warlord to Mariupol 3/30/2022, 8:57:26 AM · 34 of 44 https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050884/posts?page=34#34 gleeaikin to NorseViking; Kevmo; SoCal Pubbie; Williams; BiglyCommentary; rrrod; Meet the New Boss; All If Putin loves the people of the Ukraine south and east so much why is he flattening their cities. Oh, I guess it is because he is after the petroleum and gas reserves underground so he could care less about anything living or dead above ground. In 2012 reserved were found in the south and east, and exploration contracts signed with major oil companies. Then in 2014 Putin seized Crimea and began to destablize the Donbas area. Now he just wants to destroy all Ukraine life above those deposits. Thousands are being bussed out of the area. Who knows how many really want to go to Russia, and how many are faking it to just get away from being bombed.?
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Another possibility might be providing a travel corrider between Crimea and west Russia. Something like the Danzig Corridor, or the Panama Canal Zone. In addition Ukraine must have its rights to drill for oil in the Black Sea restored. The oil is why Puting really wanted Crimea.
Think about all that, in the context of a very hasty nuke program. Maybe the Ukes have only, say 5 or 6 nukes. They can barely get it to fit on some midrange missile. And they might only have about 20 of those.
So they start their negotiations with the Turks in the middle. They say, “back off, or we will nuke your ammo dumps. Don’t believe us? Watch this. “ A couple days later the Rukes announce they’re bein’ nice and pullin’ back a little tad from Kiev.
Even if the Ukes don’t have weapons grade nuke material, they can send dirty bombs 10 miles and really muck things up for the Russians.
This thing could be gettin’ real dicey.
If they use cobalt-60 for medical sterilization they (either side) make a place radioactive for hundreds of years.
Our local facility is in an undisclosed location and from the people I know who have been there, it is heavily guarded.
When I put myself into Uke shoes [would those be Ukes on Glukes instead of Glocks on Crocs?],
https://www.google.com/search?q=uke+on+a+nuke&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwj16oirh-_2AhXiQkIHHWErDHYQ2-cCegQIABAA&oq=uke+on+a+nuke&gs_lcp=CgNpbWcQAzoHCCMQ7wMQJzoFCAAQgAQ6CggjEO8DEOoCECc6CwgAEIAEELEDEIMBOggIABCABBCxAzoICAAQsQMQgwE6BAgAEEM6BggAEAgQHlDtCljbWWCFXGgBcAB4AoABlgWIAesgkgEKMC4yNS4yLjUtMZgBAKABAaoBC2d3cy13aXotaW1nsAEKwAEB&sclient=img&ei=7_BEYrW3HeKFieoP4dawsAc&bih=634&biw=1396&hl=en#imgrc=z9_2pkEAIlRbLM
I don’t think I would want to make a place dangerously radioactive for so long. Maybe for only 10 years.
That’s what lends credence to what the Rukes found at Chernobyl:
Russia destroys Chernobyl lab, gaining ‘highly active samples’
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4049162/posts
That would be enough to slow down every Ruke column headed into Ukraine. They gotta put on the Nuke Bunny Suits, detect radiation, clean it up, deal with all the negapublicity, get their average soldier wondering what this whole thing is about and why they aint bein’ welcomed with open arms & flowers, generally mess with their heads.
Plus, there’s the distinct possibility of real nuke bombs.
Radiation would destroy some of the most valuable farmland in the world. If Ukraine could win in a cleaner way they would still have excellent farms.
If I were da Ukes with da Nukes, I would not radiate my own land. I would send one demo nuke to another ammo dump 10 miles inside Ruke territory.
And I would announce it in the press:
“Yes, we are in an existential war, just like the USA was when they dropped their nukes.
Yes, it caused a lot of damage, so we hope the Russians leave our country immediately, surrendering every last bullet and weapon, and agree to be escorted by United Nations Blue Helmet observers.
Yes, we have a few more.
Yes, we acknowledge that the Russians have way more nukes than we do but we didn’t invade THEM, they invaded US, and even though a nuke has gone off in their country, they are not in an existential war of any kind. It is time for them to completely call off their invasion and respect our borders as they said they would in the Budapest Agreement.”
A source is a source and good information is good information.
In these times good sources and information are hard to find.
Using what you can find to build a argument is the best anyone can do.
A source is a source and good information is good information.
***I agree, that’s why I followed up on it.
When all of this build up by Russia on the Ukrainian border happened, a former British Intelligence Officer came on what I remember was the Lars Larsson radio program. He said Russia was puffing up to get a concession that Ukraine not join NATO. Sounded reasonable.
Then with the apparent calm out of the government in Kiev I figured both sides would sit down at the table and ink an agreement. Why else were the Ukrainians so calm while Washington was pitching fits?
Well Vlad surprised me. Ever since then there has been story after story that turns out not to be true. The Ghost of Kiev. The little girl fighting Russians with...a shotgun?
So most that comes out of there cannot be trusted. If someone shelled a school, which side did it? Are soldiers using kids as human shields? Well they do It in the Middle East. Why did Ukraine bomb a chicken farm? There were clearly munitions in there from the explosion. But why a chicken farm?
Sorry to say but the US has not been exactly helpful in this situation with our politician’s kids doing business in the place (Republican and Democrat) and one, Hunter, taking money from both sides. Russian drug dealers taking his laptop while he was passed out. Who know what both sides have on POTUS and family? What a mess.
That stuff with Hunter Biden is basically a side note to one entire nation invading another.
And this Russian “puffing up” was just building up an excuse to invade over, you guessed it, oil.
FWIW, by 2013 the Obama Admin. was already in Ukraine. They collaborated with Soros in what appears to have been a well planned and financed public relations effort with a radio station and social media ‘grass-roots workshops called “TechCamp.” TechCamp’s still a thing with a web page with a broad listing of countries hosting projects and workshops all around the world, but little information.
There was a conference in Yalta in late 2013, a star-studded event—the Clintons were there, and Victoria Nuland. Dick Cheney put in an appearance. Bill Richardson talked about shell-fracking. Isn’t it wonderful what people can do when willing to put their petty differences aside?
I don’t think Putin was invited, alas. Do you suppose he holds a grudge?
Here is another map of those oil/gas fields
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4051091/replies?c=23
I think the situation for potential success is much greater for Ukraine. Ukraine has the resources for success, and the location and ethnicity to mesh nicely with the rest of Europe. “
Kevmo, I’m glad you have picked up on my original posts regarding the importance of oil in Putin’s outrages. An occasional quotation mark would be nice. I think changing the popular thinking from the concept “Putin is afraid of the danger of NATO for his country” to the real motive “Ukraine has all this oil, and I still want to get even richer than I already am”, plus “I don’t care how many cities I destroy, and how many women and children are crushed, the oil is still safe underground and ready for pumping.” What a total totalitrian bastid!!
The Crimea is also important for the import of bauxite for aluminum and who knows how many other important products. Some kind of compromise that allows the disputed regions to have internationally supervised plebecites and semi-autonomous governance if they choose that would be good.
As I wrote before, some kind of corridor that allows Russia to use some of the port facilities and transport the goods
to the heartland would help satisfy one of Russia’s historic goals. Always the quest for a warm water port, Helping Russia achieve that old goal, without crushing the rights of other people might be a significant decision to maintain long term world peace. I think Trump instinctively picked up on that concept, but did not give enough thought to encouraging change away from totalitarianism. Cheers
Not a link, I am saying that when I worked for the Department of State in 2008 during another Russian invasion, we knew back then Ukraine would be a future target because of their insistance on high transit fees for the pipelines oil. Russia already had made claims to the Donbass and the other region knowing that the mid-point of the nation is divided by a river. It had always been assumed Russian would take the Russian Ukrainian’s back into her fold. The West taunting Russia by talking about NATO only served to force Russia’s hands. This is what was discussed in general in State Department conservations between rank and file employees as this conflict in that region was understood. You might call this high level somewhat informed hearsay or rumors.
My classmate from our State Department Class was serving in Gerogia when Russia invaded in 2008. We talked about all of that I’ve told here.
Just saying keep this threat and refer back to my post as those pesky pipeline fee’s are going to be heard about in the future.
I am not quite clear on why Russia would want to encourage green energy in Europe. Wouldn’t this cut into their oil sales? In fact, I imagine Europe will push much faster into developing their non oil energy resources with this Russian “encouragement.” Biden is promising liquid natural gas (LGN) from the US. A good friend had bought a lot of gas shares and then the bottom fell out of the market. He recently reported the shares he still has have doubled. This conflict will also encourage green energy in the US. Fortunately, I can afford slightly higher gas prices, and I realize how important it is to conserve our oil resources for their future industrial uses. There are so many essential goods made from petroleum, and we need to think about our grandchildren and their grandchildren. I recently did an information dive into solar cells. I did not know we were mining high grade quartz in NC, shipping it to Chine for manufacture into cheap solar panels, and then shipping them back to the US. US solar is produced in Ohio using local cadmium telluride. Nice to know panels will be produced here by our workers and not in China possiblly by slave labor.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/a-new-player-appears-in-american-thin-film-cadmium-telluride-solar-module-manufacturing/#comment-174377 [Trump’s “bring jobs home” bearing fruit.]
The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will certainly continue because of vast religious differences. The fight between Shia and Sunni Islam are about as great as the fight between Catholicism and Protestantism that Europe suffered centuries ago in various areas. Their relations were certainely not improved by the terrible disaster a few years ago in SA during the annual haj celebrated in Mecca. Over 400 Iranian clerics were crushed in a stampede caused by SA’s poor management of their universal cultural event. It certianly is in Russia’s interest to cultivate Iran, after all, they are another country with warm water ports.
It is nice to see anti totalitarian Putitn FReepers congregating for intelligent examination of this serious international crisis. There are so many different aspects to this crisis, many of which are known to very few, and certainly not examined in depth by the MSM, or twitter and facebook.
I’m very eagerly reading your discussions. Previously, I was being pretty aggressive with the Putin supporters who are the most extreme, or folks who believe the wildest conspiracies, as opposed to seeing the simple reality of the war.
Of course Putin wants resources and those include people and land, strategic position, Black Sea access, oil,gas,wheat- and strategic oil and gas pipelines which run through Ukraine.
Germany was producing and burning its own coal supplies to generate power.
The Green Energy push led to Germany shutting down some of their coal fired power plants, switching instead to solar/wind plus Natural Gas fired power plants that are "greener" than "dirty coal."
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210419-the-end-of-the-worlds-capital-of-brown-coal
Who supplies Natural Gas to Germany?
“I am not quite clear on why Russia would want to encourage green energy in Europe. Wouldn’t this cut into their oil sales?”
Russia was putting money into the “green” movement to get wealthy countries to NOT produce oil and natural gas. The push to renewable energy, if you study it for any length of time, will not create an economy free from fossil fuels.
Renewables have the big problem that the energy is very dispersed, not concentrated. That is why we use hydroelectric, coal, natural gas, and nuclear.
The only highly concentrated “green” energy is geothermal and hot dry rock. Geothermal is used in areas where water and hot rocks are available. Hot dry rock is still in the experimental stage.
Solar is good for producing additional power, especially if put on top of large buildings such as warehouses, factories, shopping centers, etc. because then no additional land has to be used. Solar farms are a non-starter for many areas as the value of land for farming crops is far greater than for solar farming.
Nonetheless fossil fuels have to be used in production of fertilizer, chemical feed stock, metals, plastics, etc. There is no substitute.
The United States has plenty of energy available whether coal, gas, petroleum, solar, hydroelectric, nuclear, etc. There should be no energy crisis in this country. The crisis is with our government.
Europe went “green” and even, in Germany, planned to shut down their nuclear plants. To make up the difference they bought gas from Russia.
Russia needs to maintain an enormous energy presence because that is its main source of foreign revenue. Independent provinces in eastern Ukraine populated by ethnic Russians would likely use Russian companies to develop their oil and gas resources. That could be the driving force behind Russia’s initial insistence that the breakaway areas be recognized as independent countries (recognition of independence was a stated Russian goal).
Trump warned Euros about their heavy reliance on Russia for their energy. They laughed at him. Then they got a POTUS they liked better. And now look at the results.
Thanks for the alternate view.
You might call this high level somewhat informed hearsay or rumors.
***Yes that is what I would call it. Because 6 years later they signed the Budapest Memorandum.
Thank you for these additional thoughts on solar. I took part in a political battle a few years where our city was going to other states to purchase their solar energy, but was ignoring buying the surplus electricity available from local solar roofs. We won the battle, and local people continue to put rolar on homes and large buildings. I rode past the Wallops Island, VA space facility recently and saw they now have a lot of solar arrays on their extensive green lawn areas. I can imagine that in some hot growing areas, carefully spaced and elevated solar arrays might actually improvide growing conditions by reducing excessive heat and solar drying of the ground.
Europe will probably continue to use more wind as much of it is further north than the US, and thus has weaker son rays. We have so much relatively deserted unforested land in our hotest and sunniest regions that solar may be a good choice. I look forward to seeing how the use of US cadmium telluride for solar panels balances out with our current process of sending high quality quartz to China for panel production and reimport the finished solar panels back to the US. So far as carbon fuels are concerned, there needs to be a balance between best uses and needs far in our future for essential and desireable petroleum non fuel uses.
I wonder how much other exportable productivity Russia might develop if its stopped mining and selling its raw wealth and instead developed manufacture. Police states do not encourage the minds of thier most creative and energetic people to develop things that enhance the group. Mostly people with intelligence and energy look out for number one and the heck with the rest. This explains the case of the army commander who recently committed suicide. Theft by the big guys was equaled by theft by the little guys and one made money by letting things be gotten away with. So when the military hardware was needed, it was useless, and the guy responsible for its care knew his goose was cooked.
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