They retain a lot of the oil. But they also retain a lot of agrarian space
AND, you know what's Ukraine's greatest export? Skilled workers. We have tons of really good Ukrainian IT guys working in Poland. They can really build up the country.
Hmmmm, they luze all the oil- and gas-bearing regions to the invader. But they gain a “guarantor” or two.
They THOUGHT they HAD a guarantor when they signed the Budapest Memorandum with Russia and USA as signers. But we betrayed them after Russia VIOLATED the agreement & invaded twice.
So what will they require of a guarantor state? How about simply boots on the ground, tens of thousands of them? And a patrolled region with those guarantor state soldiers in the buffer zone between the Ukraine and Russia?
Here’s how I look at it: If the Ukes sign another agreement, they are no longer in an existential war. That means they no longer have the demonstrated right to pursue nukes [unless they specifically say otherwise in this new agreement].
Once they are no longer in an existential war, restoring their old borders would entail INVADING back into the old Ukraine/New Republics, forcing the Ukes to be the aggressors. But if they refuse to sign the agreement, just keep things in a perpetual state of war like the Nork/SouKoreans then they can build their own nukes in the future like the Norks appear to be doing.
The Ukes do not have a lot of choices. I’ll bet that right about now they regret not having pursued NATO membership as distinctly as the Estonians did.
What they are very likely to get is lots of money for their defense establishment. Money is very easy and goes very far in Ukraine. The Ukes should easily be able to maintain a much bigger and better active and reserve military, very quickly.
Russia has no option, should it try to threaten Ukraine again, but to do it with a reformed conscript army, as their active force won’t have the numbers (as we see today). Add to that military reform will require massive social reforms in Russia.
They retain a lot of the oil. But they also retain a lot of agrarian space
AND, you know what's Ukraine's greatest export? Skilled workers. We have tons of really good Ukrainian IT guys working in Poland. They can really build up the country.