Florida Early Vote update, 10/30/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/30/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 637,912

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 474,229

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 163,683

[wireman]

I agree Coop but 60 million idiots in CA, NY, MA, NJ, Il and MD will do the wrong thing in terms of the popular vote

[Rumierules]

Do you think Election Day will be somewhere 3 & 4 EV days? In terms of votes cast?

[Coop]

Trump earned 306 electoral votes (although two defected). So 295 could mean Trump flips zero H. Clinton states and loses AZ with its 11 EVs. Which I seriously doubt. Or loses WI (10) and ME-02 (1), which I also seriously doubt.

[Coop]

I agree Coop but 60 million idiots in CA, NY, MA, NJ, Il and MD will do the wrong thing in terms of the popular vote

That has no impact on the electoral college & 295 number. I expect POTUS to lose all the states you listed, but then still win the popular vote. (But as we saw 4 years ago, he doesn't need to win the popular vote.) But I hope you're right about the 60M number. That's nearly 6M fewer votes than HRC received. I expect Trump to significantly add to his nearly 63M votes from last time.

[janetjanet998]

my guesimates and current thinking and notes from yesterday

“Friday 38K net rep gain”
reps killed it today with IPEV around +55

I was expecting more mail in D’s they only had a net +6K or so day today. Libs earlier in week were claiming a “weekend delay” and it will pick up as the week goes on..it did some and peaked 11K weds but fell off. (LOL at them) The +.4% net R return rate today helped ...hopefully that will continue to uptick an hurt the Dems there

I really don’t know how the weekend mailing system will affect
the system.. if less mail on Sunday maybe more on Monday? but it will all even out so I will ignore that factor

“Sat: +29”

Ok we have to talk about Covid and social distancing factor. Could it be that more people will vote this weekend then normally would (and less on election day) because of longer lines? and those people are mostly reps. This will also reduce some of the typical REP election day surge. I will give this some minor weight now,,and ditto for Sunday

R’s had +55K net or so in person vote today. I am taking 73% of that for a starting point but adding +1000 for election day transfer votes

so REP +41 IPEV

I expect the dem mail in return advantage to fall other anothe er .2% I am expecting +5000 dem mail in advantage

SO I am raising my REP net gain to +36K for Sat vs +29K

Sunday:

still a huge guess: we are missing about 2/3 of the troops
but if we had that battle yesterday we still would have won IPEV by 10K

I will start there at +10K R
mail ins I will go with 5000 D again
souls to the polls surge: last year D’s had +50K net on this day...but some of that is wasted in the mail ins, plus i am assuming less people are going to church : I will give the D’s
+25K surge

I am adding on +2K for the R’s transferring election day votes to the day

Final D’s pick up +18 vs +25

Monday:

It will be Bay/Gulf Red counties vs D mail ins
I will say 5000 mail in still with an IPEV vote of +1K from Bay and Gulf

I will assume the Sunday Sarasota/polk vote monday dump will offset
maimi-dade

Dems +4K on the day

D +114 now
R +36 Sat
D +18 sun
D +4 Mon

Dem +100K election day vs +130 last night

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Perhaps the 295 doesn’t include states considered too close to put in anyone’s column just yet.

[LS]

In FL?

0/0 or, at worst, Rs down maybe 30,000, or Rs could be up 10,000.

[janetjanet998]

Here comes the “wait we found more votes..and we need more time after Tuesday to count”

Dem House Leader
@kionnemcghee
Raw footage of mailroom in post office here in Miami Dade. Source revealed “mail in ballots are within these piled up in bins on the floor. Mail has been sitting for over week!.

Per source -both Post Master and Postal Inspector are aware of this issue at the Princeton post office. Post Master is taking photos and videos of the matter and expect sorting to take them past Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744

[plushaye]

Someone on Gab has a video cut from this morning’s CNN discussion with Dem David Axelrod. They are talking about Miami-Dade and how Biden campaign workers complained in the Bloomberg article that they didn’t get enough resources for voter outreach. It looks like everyone is at a funeral. They look so depressed and so does he.

big quote:
“The other thing you notice, if you look deeply into these numbers is that where the fall off is - appears to be - seems to be ah, among AfricanAmerican voters. And that is a concern.”
—David Axelrod

[Lower Deck]

Biden has 100 EVs

What states are you referring to?

[Coop]

I was simply making up numbers to make a point.

[Coop]

Okay, bort. Haven’t seen your prediction, and I don’t think I’ve seen bc’s either. Speedy - 120K Ds, Coop - 98,4xx Ds, Ravi - 80K Ds, LS - even or up to 30K Ds (I think?). And Janet should be in this contest as well.

[byecomey]

I think she made some projections up thread. I’ll endorse her predictions.

Predictions go against my grain as a professional who has strongly trained themselves to present the data in a way others can form their very best decisions, and not be the one making the decisions for others. And from what I’ve seen, Janet is particularly good at this.

The only reason I was able to predict 2016 somewhat was because it was a pure apples to apples comparison wrt early voting and primaries over 2012. No such solid ground in 2020.

[rumrunner]

Hopefully at some point the moderators sticky an early voting thread. There is an article out of Houston where the local news analyzed early voting, and minority areas are underperforming.

That is a trend that we are seeing from Florida, Arizona, Colorado, even Ohio. At some point, there will be a realization from the Biden camp that there is no hail mary coming from those communities.

Whether one believes that Trump will get 15% of the black vote or not, in the aggregate, if blacks stay home, it is a dagger for Biden’s chances...I’m looking at you Michigan and Wisconsin.

[bort]

Democrats will lead early voting by 75K. Trump wins FL by 3.5

[janetjanet998]

Okay, bort. Haven’t seen your prediction, and I don’t think I’ve seen bc’s either. Speedy - 120K Ds, Coop - 98,4xx Ds, Ravi - 80K Ds, LS - even or up to 30K Ds (I think?). And Janet should be in this contest as well.

---

see post 385 for my reasonings (+100 D)

another thing I just thought of they will still count mail ins Tuesday .. didn’t think of that

if that is still considered “pre election day” vote I will assume +5K D Tuesday

+105 D then, if Tuesday data is not considered “early vote” then +100 D

---

[byecomey]

Let me piggyback and say 100K as well.

[Coop]

No can do. Gotta pick you own number! 101K or 99K are available.

[SheepWhisperer]

I want be sure of what is being posted...

The 114k dem lead...

This is based on solely the number of registered d that voted compared to the number of registered r?

It DOESN’T account for the democrats who may have Actually voted r?

[Cathi]

Hannity interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) — Best pollster from 2016

Hannity asked him about other pollsters who say they have made adjustments since 2016.

C: They say they have made adjustments, but the next race we saw that had this “social desirability bias,” you know shy voters was the race for Governor of Florida and they all got it wrong again so I don’t buy that they’ve made any adjustments. I’ll take Michael Moore’s understanding of average people over all those pollsters in a bag every single day. I don’t see them understanding people aren’t straight forward when it comes to these polls. They don’t understand it...they refuse to understand it and it seems actually logical.

Hannity asked him about the individual states;

C: I think that the states we had before for Trump....Florida, Arizona and North Carolina are still there. I feel like Michigan is a win right now. Pennsylvania he’s going to need to get further along than he is. I think he needs to win Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 to overcome the voter fraud that’s gonna happen there. Wisconsin is really a toss up right now. Minnesota but for Kanye he would have Minnesota. Kanye is taking up extra space that he needs and Nevada has closed very, very tightly so I think this thing is, there are all the 5 paths to victory once you get passed the sunbelt and they all seem available at this point.

Hannity asks: Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, are they Trump states in your view as of now? Yes and I think that Ohio and Georgia are solid and were never really in play

H: And what about Arizona and Iowa? Arizona I feel great about...Iowa definitely... I think Iowa was never really in play

H: When you say that the president would have to win by 4 or 5 in Pennsylvania because of voter fraud are we talking about Philly? One phenomena that I am seeing in every poll very consistent they are not outliers is that African Americans, Hispanic Americans are going for Donald Trump in almost double or triple the number that he got in 2016. Is that real because the Times/Siena poll had Philadelphia 24% for President Trump.

C: Absolutely we see it across the board the most recent Florida we had him at 27% of the African American vote. The most recent Nevada he was at 20; Michigan I believe 25; North Carolina 26. This is absolutely a phenomenon that had happened in the last 10 days. He’s gone from the teens and having quite of few of the black voters moving around between undecided and third party and its all fallen away as I said a few times the shy Trump voters in the black community aren’t very shy anymore.

H: Lets talk about younger people which seem to be trending towards the President. They don’t seem to be drawn to dark winter doom and gloom and another shut down which Biden will do. How big a factor is that?

C: We’re seeing kids who even tell us they are committed liberals who want the shutdowns to end and they’re gonna vote for Trump even though they do not like him.