Okay, bort. Haven’t seen your prediction, and I don’t think I’ve seen bc’s either. Speedy - 120K Ds, Coop - 98,4xx Ds, Ravi - 80K Ds, LS - even or up to 30K Ds (I think?). And Janet should be in this contest as well.
I think she made some projections up thread. I’ll endorse her predictions.
Predictions go against my grain as a professional who has strongly trained themselves to present the data in a way others can form their very best decisions, and not be the one making the decisions for others. And from what I’ve seen, Janet is particularly good at this.
The only reason I was able to predict 2016 somewhat was because it was a pure apples to apples comparison wrt early voting and primaries over 2012. No such solid ground in 2020.
Hopefully at some point the moderators sticky an early voting thread. There is an article out of Houston where the local news analyzed early voting, and minority areas are underperforming.
That is a trend that we are seeing from Florida, Arizona, Colorado, even Ohio. At some point, there will be a realization from the Biden camp that there is no hail mary coming from those communities.
Whether one believes that Trump will get 15% of the black vote or not, in the aggregate, if blacks stay home, it is a dagger for Biden’s chances...I’m looking at you Michigan and Wisconsin.
Democrats will lead early voting by 75K. Trump wins FL by 3.5
Okay, bort. Haven’t seen your prediction, and I don’t think I’ve seen bc’s either. Speedy - 120K Ds, Coop - 98,4xx Ds, Ravi - 80K Ds, LS - even or up to 30K Ds (I think?). And Janet should be in this contest as well.
see post 385 for my reasonings (+100 D)
another thing I just thought of they will still count mail ins Tuesday .. didn’t think of that
if that is still considered “pre election day” vote I will assume +5K D Tuesday
+105 D then, if Tuesday data is not considered “early vote” then +100 D