Posted on 10/30/2020 5:51:59 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 637,912
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 474,229
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 163,683
I heard the GOP saying something like Sleepy Joe needs a 317K vote advantage going into election day. I think the Dems claimed in the lower 200Ks. Either way, Joe and Kamala are in a world of hurt. Unless, of course, they flip Texas. Which just might happen, since Speedy and Ravi have been paying so much attention to Florida!
I’ll take it...
Pretty good news. I wouldn’t expect a huge shift either way overall between now and Tuesday. Tomorrow may be a decent R day but Sunday won’t as a lot of R-leaning counties wrap up EV tomorrow.
If some areas in the panhandle are having EV Monday, while that is great it is probably not going to move the needle much.
If the gap gets under 100k I will be pleasantly surprised.
That's kinda depressing.
Never! Poll watcher on Tuesday. Just met the creepy Dem election judge. Alright I’m going with Dem 80k advantage by Tuesday am.
That would mean minus Pennsylvania (20) from 2016 and the Maine EV (1), most likely.
AZ. Maricopa County.
“Maricopa county EV update. Since I last looked yesterday, R ballots have a 1.7:1 advantage over D ballots coming in.
4 Days Out (Party = registration)
Total: 1,534,898
R: 577,185
D: 554,026
O: 403,687”
It’ll do though.
Attaboy - 80K for the Ds. And thank you for being a poll watcher!
Its more than the Biden side would have.
Not really. It will mean the lying, hate-filled Democrats were not punished for a despicable bogus impeachment, or for organizing/sponsoring riots and attacks against our law enforcement personnel, or for hysterical economic lockdowns destroying our businesses and so many people's lives. I will be VERY disappointed if Pres. Trump does not improve upon his 2016 performance.
I assume this is simply counting votes by registration, and does not take into account the percent of republicans who might vote Biden, and the percent of democrats who will vote Trump.
I would assume that most of the latino and black voters were registered democrat, so this would not measure the increased support Trump might be getting from that group.
However, I also assume cubans are registered republican, so their increased interest in trump would be reflected in how many of them show up to vote.
Zero chance Texas flips; even if only out of self defense.
Ban fracking??? And put the entire state of Texas out of work? LOL. Right.
Texas has been fracking for 70+ years. It’s the fracking combined with horizontal drilling technology that led fracking to expand out of Texas making shale oil reachable in places like ND and PA (south central NY also if they were intelligent enough to allow it); raising the awareness of liberal environmental activists everywhere (probably because if resembles in pronunciation another more famous ‘f’ word....).
If fracking had never gone beyond Texas, most liberals would have never heard of it.
I choose to be an optimist. What the political director isn’t saying is Trump has 295 EVs, Biden has 100 EVs, and the remaining 143 EVs are toss-ups. I’m sticking with that story.
“That’s kinda depressing.”
Remember the Trump campaign polls don’t include “shy” Trump voters either. Their numbers are based on the same thing other pollsters are...only they are done at a more professional level than your average media suppression poll. The “Shy” Trump voters are the gift that gets unwrapped on Nov. 3.
In 2016 they are what took the election results from Clinton +5, 6, and 7 in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Trump wins in each state.
We already know how this script turns out....it is a rerun except that all 3 of THE BEST pollsters (Trafalgar, Peoples Pundit and Democracy Institute) all say there are more shys than in 2016.
As an aside, Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, also got 2016 right and he says he expects Trump to win and agrees there are a lot of shys. In addition he thinks this cycle might actually be the end of polling because of the problems we have outlined.
I was joking. But if it does flip, you know who is to blame.
I disagree. Not about shy Trump voters, but those polls in 2016 were about as accurate as their 2020 counterparts.
I expect that the 295 figure is conservative.
Gasp!!!! The humanity!
We have some denial going on...
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
“GA+NC > FL in terms of electoral votes... and based purely on polling... it’s really not clear at all that Biden’s in better position in FL than in GA or NC...”
I don’t think Biden’s in that great of a position to replace FL with GA + NC.
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