Posted on 10/30/2020 5:51:59 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 637,912
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 474,229
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 163,683
10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
“10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9% ”
Gap down to 2.1 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Looking great.
Voted this morning in Wakulla County. I was #3 in line.
Today is the last early voting day in FL?
D VBM return rate is 74.4%. Yesterday was 72.6%
R VBM return rate is 72.6%. Yesterday was 70.4%.
1.8 point gap. Smallest gap so far.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
Sunday
Thank you.
I took these numbers off of Byecomeys page for a starting point today at 8am eastern
I may have missed a few early votes
472,979 162,789 635,768
lets see if we can hit +40K net gain again
we should be off to a much better start then yesterday:
1) He will dump Sarasota EV data to offset the Miami-Dade mail ins..
2) some Panhandle counties were closed 71m-11am yesterday, open today
3) Polk is still offline but if we do get data today, we may get two days of info
Correct but it looks like counties have the option of allowing early voting on 11/1.
Early Voting Period
By law, early voting must be held at least for 8 days. The mandatory early voting periods for 2020 are:
General Election: October 24 – 31
Each county Supervisor of Elections may offer more days of early voting from one or more of the following days:
Presidential Preference Primary Election: March 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 15
Primary Election: August 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 16
General Election: October 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 and November 1
https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/election-dates/
Sunday is.
No Sir, thank you for doing all of this.
Are all counties in FL having early voting on Sunday?
D VBM return rate is 74.4%. Yesterday was 72.6%
R VBM return rate is 72.6%. Yesterday was 70.4%.
assuming no rounding errors
Dems +1.8 today
REPS +2.2
REP +.4
that should keep the mail ins in check as far as D’s growing the daily net increase :)
Three more days. Even if the net gain tapers off to say 25-30k per day average, the delta is going to drop to 1% or less.
NO alot of res counties will be missing
here is some info a put together late on yesterdays thread
what if today was Sunday and only the counties opened then voted with todays data>
keep in mind I am not sure what counties were opened 2020 vs 2016 the Sunday before election day
if more Rep counties are opened this year those votes may be lost election day votes this year
Dems won early in person voting that day by 52,000ish votes
but alot of those votes are already
difference between in person voting yesterday and today
Broward +4164 D
Orange +616 D
lean +464 D
Gads +236 D
hillsbor +1717 R
pinel. +1566
Mantne. +1811
charelt +1265
volsia. +1740
Bay. +2053
Duval. +1388
Palm b. +1623
Miami-d. +384
6 other small red counties +1485
so R +10,318 in person votes today in the match up of Sunday opened counties
but it gets better
Two Big ones: Polk and Sarasota have no data yet to compare
so if there was no “souls to the polls” D-push in the data
Rep would have eon todays in early person voting at least by 10,318
and the overall net day of day +2-3K
WILD CARD QUESTION:
If polls are not open on Sunday in a county do they still count the mail ins on Sunday?
If not D’s could have big mail in Day with so many R counties missing
Of course if not they will double up on mail on Monday
“D VBM return rate is 74.4%. Yesterday was 72.6%”
Ds added 1.8 to VBM return rate yesterday and have now exceed their 2016 election eve number.
Over 100k VBM ballots were returned yesterday between all parties. Still alot of them coming in.
Projecting out: Fri 1.8, Sat 1.8, Sun 1.5 + 74.4 = 79.5 for Election Eve when we pin their turnout.
R turnout in 2016 was 81.2% overall.
How much over the 653K projection VBM lead for Dems domwe see them achieving? More or less not an issue now since we’ve done a great job in IPEV, but just curious.
Excellent. Wakulla County is 1 of 30 in which Rs turnout exceeds Ds. (as of 1st thing this a.m.)
Hopefully, that number has grown.
So we have All Day:
FRIDAY
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
What are your projections COB Sunday?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.