D VBM return rate is 74.4%. Yesterday was 72.6%
R VBM return rate is 72.6%. Yesterday was 70.4%.
1.8 point gap. Smallest gap so far.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump
D VBM return rate is 74.4%. Yesterday was 72.6%
R VBM return rate is 72.6%. Yesterday was 70.4%.
assuming no rounding errors
Dems +1.8 today
REPS +2.2
REP +.4
that should keep the mail ins in check as far as D’s growing the daily net increase :)
I’m getting lost here.
D VBM return rate is 75.5%. This morning was 74.4%
R VBM return rate is 74.0%. This morning was 72.6%.
1.5 point gap.