Posted on 10/30/2020 5:51:59 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 637,912
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 474,229
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 163,683
Two mini predictions.
1). The Dem/Dim’s were in denial about Florida early in the week. By the end of the week, they are grieving. This weekend they will be in the acceptance. They will say “We really didn’t need Florida. Trump needs it, but we don’t. We still have PA/MI/WI/MN.”
2). On election night, all the major networks will say something similar to: “Surprisingly, the election map is unfolding exactly like election night 2016”.
That’s not the final number though. He has to get more responses from NE part of state before finalizing.
I’ve already seen #1 in some replies, with some rage aimed at latino men who are voting Trump.
I’ve heard that if Biden loses FL, his probability of winning drops below 50%. I’m not sure if that’s true. I also have heard that Ohio nearly always picks the WH winner, and that has been true.
What is your prediction for where we end up in early voting?
first hour of “after hours” updates
+250
+227
+69
total +546
next hour: Orange county (Orlando) around 5 panhandle counties
we will need to play defense last evening we lost 250-300 votes from here on out
D advantage (IPEV and VBM) will be 98,476, +/- 5.
Coop, my personal belief is that this election is going to be a “mini” red wave.
Hope so. On 10/6 I went out on a limb and predicted 351 electoral votes for POTUS. I revised it to 350 (I messed up the Maine math), but don’t really see a reason to back off that prediction. But Trump’s rally schedule, along with that of his surrogates, suggests I may be a little too optimistic. I can live with that.
Honestly not sure. Just want to let it play out. I do know we will still knock it out of the park with turnout on Tuesday. For me this just the appetizer. Just watch these numbers jump Tuesday on the map.
Definite stages of grief especially on the @UMichVoter threads. Denial, anger, bargaining and ultimately acceptance.
I think Trump will drag McSally, Tillus, James, et al over the finish line.
There are little indications everywhere that things are not following the media script.
File this one in the unbelievable for MSNBC category.
Panic! MSNBC Only Finds One Biden Voter Out of 50 in Arizona
This is Andrea Mitchell, NBC News, Washington, on MSNBC this afternoon, a portion of her report with correspondent Vaughn Hillyard about early voting in Arizona.
HILLYARD: It is stunning and worth noting that the president going up to the rural part of the state where there’s a much larger population base — is worth noting. I stopped up there yesterday, into a couple towns — Lake Havasu, Kingman, Bullhead City. I went to one early voting location, and one, only one person out of 50 said they were voting for Joe Biden!
I’ll go with a 120k Dem lead.
Booooooo! Come on, Mr. Numbers Guy. Make a prediction! You don’t even have to do the +/- 5 tolerance. :-D
Right now I’m thinking Sen. Cory Gardner just might get another term.
UMich likes to post Broward county data and skip the other 66 counties. hahaha
Friday Final: D > R Gap down to 114,016; approximately 200,000 better in early voting than what it is presumed by both campaigns to be needed in early voting for Trump to win Florida:
8222494
87.29% of 2016 total turnout
124.45% of 2016 EV turnout
D-R gap (raw): 114016
2016 EV D-R ratio: 39.80% D - 38.34% R, Gap:1.46%
2020 EV D-R ratio:39.55% D - 38.16% R, Gap: 1.39%
0.07% Advantage Trump
I like your number. Let’s go with it.
No.
It's mine.
You must choose your own number, Grasshopper.
Trump political director Chris Carr on the Election: “Our model has Trump at 295 electoral votes.”
Perfect. Feel like I need to confess - I peeked at Sarasota.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.