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Hannity interview of Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) — Best pollster from 2016

Hannity asked him about other pollsters who say they have made adjustments since 2016.

C: They say they have made adjustments, but the next race we saw that had this “social desirability bias,” you know shy voters was the race for Governor of Florida and they all got it wrong again so I don’t buy that they’ve made any adjustments. I’ll take Michael Moore’s understanding of average people over all those pollsters in a bag every single day. I don’t see them understanding people aren’t straight forward when it comes to these polls. They don’t understand it...they refuse to understand it and it seems actually logical.

Hannity asked him about the individual states;

C: I think that the states we had before for Trump....Florida, Arizona and North Carolina are still there. I feel like Michigan is a win right now. Pennsylvania he’s going to need to get further along than he is. I think he needs to win Pennsylvania by 4 or 5 to overcome the voter fraud that’s gonna happen there. Wisconsin is really a toss up right now. Minnesota but for Kanye he would have Minnesota. Kanye is taking up extra space that he needs and Nevada has closed very, very tightly so I think this thing is, there are all the 5 paths to victory once you get passed the sunbelt and they all seem available at this point.

Hannity asks: Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, are they Trump states in your view as of now? Yes and I think that Ohio and Georgia are solid and were never really in play

H: And what about Arizona and Iowa? Arizona I feel great about...Iowa definitely... I think Iowa was never really in play

H: When you say that the president would have to win by 4 or 5 in Pennsylvania because of voter fraud are we talking about Philly? One phenomena that I am seeing in every poll very consistent they are not outliers is that African Americans, Hispanic Americans are going for Donald Trump in almost double or triple the number that he got in 2016. Is that real because the Times/Siena poll had Philadelphia 24% for President Trump.

C: Absolutely we see it across the board the most recent Florida we had him at 27% of the African American vote. The most recent Nevada he was at 20; Michigan I believe 25; North Carolina 26. This is absolutely a phenomenon that had happened in the last 10 days. He’s gone from the teens and having quite of few of the black voters moving around between undecided and third party and its all fallen away as I said a few times the shy Trump voters in the black community aren’t very shy anymore.

H: Lets talk about younger people which seem to be trending towards the President. They don’t seem to be drawn to dark winter doom and gloom and another shut down which Biden will do. How big a factor is that?

C: We’re seeing kids who even tell us they are committed liberals who want the shutdowns to end and they’re gonna vote for Trump even though they do not like him.