My best explanation is that Trump's internal polling shows him surging and he has nothing to gain from the exposure.
However that runs counter to all of the polls averaged by Real Clear Politics. If he is in fact behind it makes no sense to throw away the opportunity. Coming as it does in the wake of breaking off negotiations on the virus bailout monies, it seems illogical. I just don't get it.
Biden and his cronies at the commission trying to dictate terms. It’s pure Trump and what has got him to where he is and what conservatives love about him that he finally said with regard to this treatment, forget it.
Have you read "The Art of the Deal?" (Honest question.)
And he was right to shut this down immediately. The two campaigns agree to three in-person debates, and it makes no sense to have CNN hosting an event while their staff is also in Joe's basement operating his teleprompter.
Me neither.
My best explanation is that Trump’s internal polling shows him surging and he has nothing to gain from the exposure.
However that runs counter to all of the polls averaged by Real Clear Politics. If he is in fact behind it makes no sense to throw away the opportunity. Coming as it does in the wake of breaking off negotiations on the virus bailout monies, it seems illogical. I just don’t get it.
...
You do get it. You are just a little gun-shy to go out on the end of the limb and say it. Like Carlos Osweda said, President Trump would not cut off the G negotiations on the stimulus had he not known beyond a shadow of a doubt after looking at all of the internal polling and all of the possible scenarios he knows that he will indeed win. Yes that includes all of the shenanigans. He feels confident enough - and trusts his inner circle advisors enough - to make such a decision. In the same vein is his decision to not do the debate. Go out on the limb, NB, it will hold us.
P.S. — A “virtual town hall” is one of the dumbest formats you can ever have for a nationally televised event. It’s like broadcasting the Super Bowl with the competing teams playing in two different stadiums.
“My best explanation is that Trump’s internal polling shows him surging and he has nothing to gain from the exposure.”
Bingo I got that info last night from one of my connections!
One thing which concerned me was the announcement from the debate commission that they’d like the ability to turn off a debater’s microphone.
If that was attempted in an auditorium, Trump could still be heard. But if it was a 100% virtual debate, and the moderator turned off Trump’s mike, then the President would be denied the ability to rebut.
I would guess that the risks for a virtual debate were too high to accept.
How about he is not doing a debate with a stacked deck against him?
Re: 16 - I think the issue is that debate moderators have explicit bias (and I am not talking about being a registered Republican or Democrat).
Some formats can greater attenuate that bias and also the amount of control that a moderator exerts. Virtual is just such a format.
My concern has always been why did the Trump campaign agree to the debate moderators in the first place.
Anyways, given President Trump will not participate in a virtual debate, it’s now up to him to participate in a media event that provides as much exposure as possible.
This is simple to explain. The commission without consulting the campaigns announced a virtual debate. A virtual debate can not be fairly conducted as it’s easy to have flash cards, teleprompters and advisors off camera to help Biden. It’s a complete setup and Trump wants no part of it
Internal polling is showing him doing better. They just cancelled ads in Ohio and Iowa, for instance.
He would be willing to do a face-to-face debate and was expecting to, then the commission pulled this. Virtual allows answers on screens the camera won’t see. It’s just like at home school exams instead of at school, where teachers act as proctors.
This is also how he negotiates through positioning. Go further than the others would like and maybe get what you want or compromise someplace closer to the middle. If he accepts what’s been offered, only he made all the concessions.
It’s pretty straight-forward reasoning.
Also, unlike last time, RCP is averaging only tainted polls from WaPo and the like. Trafalgar and a few others that accurately predicted Trump’s lead last election are not in it.
Don’t let yourself be led by inherently bad data sources.
It sounds as though there was no negotiation about any terms whatsoever, just an edict from the Commission.
Exactly who’s mind is going to be changed by participating?
There’s nothing to these debates except an opportunity for some smug arsehole media head to demonstrate how superior they feel to all us unwashed anyway.
Nobody who supports Trump is going to be convinced to vote Biden by anything that could be said in a debate format. Nobody who supports Biden is going to be convinced that Orange Man is not bad, likewise.
You’ll miss an opportunity to explain how, what people saw with their own two eyes isn’t what actually happened; but other than that, no big loss.
Could have something to do with the fact that virtual debates are stupid.
This is not the end of the negotiation - this is just the President showing the CCD Car Salesman his back - showing he doesn’t need to buy a car today.
I think POTUS should invite Biden to a real debate moderated by Lou Dobbs and Larry Elder - which Biden will decline.
Put the ball is in Biden’s court.
Frankly, I think the challenger needs the debate and the incumbent can take it or leave it.
Regarding the polls - they are worrisome, but I think worrying the Republican candidate is the real strategy behind oversampling Democrats in these push polls - not “demoralizing the base” in hopes they will give up and stay home.
The real aim is to scare the Republican into shifting away from his conservative bass to attract moderates. This always worked on RINOs like McCain and Romney.
I don’t think Trump is falling for it.
“However that runs counter to all of the polls averaged by Real Clear Politics.”
On the other hand, it makes sense if you take the position that those polls are designed to SHAPE opinion rather than measure it, and that Trump voters are reluctant to honestly answer a poll for justified worries of job loss, etc.
LOL
You believe the RCP polls?
Some have suggested, not me, that he is tired, or doesn’t think he will win, and this kind of behavior will make a loss more likely. Others have suggested that people he is close to are timing the stock market with his contradictory pronouncements, like the bailout switch.