Two national polls out today: Reuters has Biden +10 and NBC has Biden +14

NBC and Reuters ^ | October 5, 2020 | Me

[St. Louis Conservative]

Reuters link

https://t.co/mCdTllTVuk

NBC poll

https://t.co/KJicRpznHq

Umm, this needs to turn around quickly or else the Senate will be a total wash out too.

[TJC]

I trust the American people. This is the globalist/China vs the nationalist across the free world. It will be a long battle, but things go in cycles. Trump will win in 2020. Who knows what 2024 will be like. China can not sustain 4 more years of Trump, they and the globalist will weaken.

[bandit123]

Conservatives are too busy working to take polls we just hang up. But we are going to vote like its a rally nov3.

[nathanbedford]

This poll was offered to refute your assertions that Trump won the debate, not in support of any notion that the debate will decide the election. I never asserted that but I do assert the importance of the poll given Trump's dilemma.

My position has always been that as far as we know Trump is behind in the battleground states, therefore it was incumbent on him during the debate to win, that is, to turn the polls around and win votes.

Whatever you think of this poll, at least it is not a flash poll which proved as I predicted to be a flash in the pan, and it shows clearly that Trump did not win the debate and for some of the reasons I cited in our discussion.

Be advised that I originally gave you a heads up for the whole poll which you cavalierly disregarded with ROFL.

I am not laughing, the campaign is in real trouble. The candidate is unable to campaign, his campaign manager is sick, his campaign digital manager is in the loony bin, the polls are against him.

[dfwgator]

I don’t answer the phone unless I know the number.

[grey_whiskers]

[grey_whiskers]

...and I notice you continue to tap-dance around never supplying a source for that quote ("Voters say").

The John Wilkes Booth Project, maybe?

[St. Louis Conservative]

What was 2016?

[wareagle7295]

October 8, 2004

"Now Kerry Leads Bush"

https://www.deseret.com/2004/10/8/19854621/now-kerry-leads-bush#sen-john-kerry-d-mass-leads-president-bush-50-percent-to-46-percent-in-a-new-poll

The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll , completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, showed a reversal from early September, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. With bloodshed increasing in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks, and Bush stumbled in their initial debate.

Among 944 likely voters, the Kerry-Edwards ticket led Bush-Cheney 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[St. Louis Conservative]

2016 was a lot closer, sure you had a few polls showing big leads but the average was much closer than it is this year.

[Williams]

Look to the history of Frank lautenberg and you will know everything you need to know about what can happen in elections in with the electorate.

[St. Louis Conservative]

You can throw out this poll, sure. Problem is virtually every other polls shows similar things. The average is Biden +8

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Problem is virtually every other polls shows similar things. The average is Biden +8

Let’s talk about Poll averages then.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

(EXCERPT)

The results showing Clinton with a growing lead largely match CNN’s Poll of Polls, which averages recent national surveys. That Poll of Polls shows Clinton ahead 48% to Trump’s 39%.

DATE OF ARTICLE: October 23,2016

Survey results show Clinton with a 20-point advantage among women, and a 3-point edge with men — a group that has tilted toward Trump for most of the 2016 race.

Clinton leads among voters of all education levels — but her 3-point advantage with those without college degrees is smaller than her 20-point lead among voters with college degrees.

[St. Louis Conservative]

Trump is not ahead in Ohio and Georgia. He is down about 2-3 points in OH per the averages and is down less than a point (essentially tied) in Georgia.

[grey_whiskers]

seen on Instapundit from poster Hephaestion

Recall that in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote only because of her margin in California; if you subtract California, Trump actually won the national popular vote (as well as the Electoral College).

In any national poll, the pollster will include a proportionate number of respondents from heavily populated -- and heavily Democratic -- states like California, New York and Illinois, thus producing the Democratic nominee's lead nationally.

Right now, the RCP national poll average has Biden at 50.6 and Trump at 42.5. (This includes the WSJ poll reported today, which has the smallest sample of any poll conducted in the last two months and includes only registered voters, not likely voters, and does not include the Zogby poll reported above.)

The RCP polling averages also show Biden ahead in all but one battleground state (Texas). And yet, the same RCP polling averages shows Trump running head of his 2016 polling averages in the battleground states (by 0.6%).

So, where are Trump's numbers coming from? If he's over-performing his 2016 battleground numbers -- an election he won -- but headed for defeat now, you'd have to believe 1) polling accuracy has improved substantially in the last four years or 2) Trump is running up massive leads (say, 80 to 90 percent of the vote) in places like Arkansas, Utah and South Dakota. After all, that 42.5% lives somewhere, right?

Either of those things is of course possible. But they both seem ... unlikely.

[cowboyusa]

Instead of posting this, pray!

[38special]

Some pollsters have tried to contact me on my cell phone (at least 3 times) and I’ve refused to answer. I know because the caller ID or text message they identify themselves. It makes me wonder how many times this has happened with others.

[St. Louis Conservative]

Graham is got to be way better than 50%. Trump should carry the state by high single digits. I’m not aware of him trailing in any polls.

Same dynamic in Montana although the Dem is better known there.

The Georgia races, if they go to a runoff probably benefit Repubs if Biden wins.

[St. Louis Conservative]

I’m doing both

[cowboyusa]

Good. PT is in better shape now in the swing states than he was at this point in 2016.

[Maine Mariner]

I fear you may be right.